After the terrorist attack on Moscow, Russia stepped up its attack on Ukraine, and Russia and Ukraine once again fought saber-rattling. According to the news on the Internet, Zelensky has been convinced and wants peace talks? Is it a fictitious thing? Or is it true? Among the evidence given by netizens who think that it is true, there are two pieces of evidence that seem to be very reasonable.
(1) Russia disintegrates Ukraine through the internal energy crisis and promotes peace talks?
Around March 31, some media reported that the Russian side struck Ukrainian energy infrastructure, defense enterprises and Ukrainian army drone workshops. On March 26, the "Ukrainian Daily" published an article saying: From March 21 to 25, Russia launched a devastating attack on Ukraine's transregional power grid, and this attack was the largest attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure in Russian history. Ukraine's largest private energy company lost half of its power generation capacity in the attack, while Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power station was also hit hard.
The head of the Ukrainian hydroelectric company, Ihor Hirota, said in an interview that the entire unit of its hydroelectric power plant had been destroyed and that it could take 18 to 24 months to rebuild and years to fully restore it, which meant that Ukraine's energy system suffered huge losses.
Although the Ukrainian media described the attack as "huge", other media have different accounts. On April 1, Reuters published an article in which the CEO of Ukraine's grid operator was interviewed. According to the executive, the attack caused considerable damage to Ukraine's power system, but the likelihood of a total collapse is not great.
Which of the reports on the two sides is true and which is false? How big is the impact of this Russian energy attack on Ukraine? What impact might it have on Zelensky's decision to make "peace talks"?
According to the analysis of experts, Russia's bombing of Ukraine's infrastructure may cause pressure on Ukraine's people's livelihood, industry and even economy, but for Ukraine, these issues are secondary issues in the face of security and have little impact on peace talks.
It seems that the energy crisis is not enough for Zelensky to negotiate peace.
(2) Ukraine ran out of weapons and ammunition, and Zelensky was forced to negotiate peace?
The second reason for the peace talks was reported on the Internet: the weapons and ammunition of the Ukrainian army had been exhausted, and Zelensky cried to the United States for "peace talks" without success. Since the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, although the United States and NATO countries have been providing assistance to Ukraine, the lack of weapons and ammunition seems to have been Ukraine's "dead end". This time Ukraine will really have no help, is it really impossible?
According to public information, since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Ukrainian army has depleted its war reserves at a very fast pace, and at the same time has also exhausted various military supplies that the United States, Britain, Germany, France, Poland and other NATO member states have greatly assisted.
A media outlet called "Defense Express" published an article entitled "Ukraine uses 5 times less artillery ammunition than Russia", which cites the relevant report of the Wall Street Journal, as well as statistics from the "Royal United Services Institute".
According to RUSI data, since the summer of 2023, there has been a huge gap between the spending of the armies of the two countries on artillery ammunition. In the summer of 2023, Ukraine has an advantage in artillery firepower, capable of firing 7,000 to 7,500 shells per day, compared to 5,000 for Russia, but now Ukraine's artillery, the rate of fire has dropped to 2,000 rounds per day, while Russia has doubled to 10,000 rounds.
In a report in February this year, Time magazine gave some detailed descriptions of Ukraine's lack of weapons and ammunition: due to insufficient ammunition, Ukraine had to ration its troops, firing only 2,000 shells per day at a range of 750 miles, or 1,207 kilometers. This figure just coincides with the data of RUSI, which is more credible.
Bai Mengchen (commentator of "News Assurance Group"): "The number of artillery pieces in Russia itself is more than that of Ukraine. Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Ukraine is said to have received about 3,000 artillery pieces from the West, half of which were provided by the US military. Of course, this amount is still a drop in the bucket compared to the huge number of artillery pieces in Russia. Because of 2,000 rounds per day, it is actually an average concept, but in real combat it will have areas of concentration of the main strikes, some more important directions, such as Avdeyevka. Then, in these areas, the number of concentrated artillery in Russia may be greater than that of Ukraine, and some believe that it may reach 1 to 10, or even a larger gap. Therefore, Ukraine does have a clear gap in artillery weapons. ”
In the face of a huge shortage of weapons and ammunition, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba complained in an interview with the US media: "Give us the Patriot missiles!
At the end of March, in an interview, Zelensky made a "crying and threatening" speech, saying: "Without the support of the United States, it means that we have no air defense systems, no Patriot missiles, no electronic warfare jammers, and no 155mm artillery, which means that we will retreat step by step and retreat."
Does Zelensky's subtext say that if you don't give me weapons again, I'm going to have "peace talks"?
Zhang Hong (Researcher, Institute of Russian, East European and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences): "Zelensky's public shouting to the media, especially the American media, actually means to pressure the Republican Party in the United States, including the US government and the Pentagon, and it is also addressed to Europeans. If the Americans fail to submit military aid to Ukraine on time, then Ukraine may have to retreat and may fail. ”
According to experts, Zelensky's "retreat" is primarily a threat of "retreat as advance", so did it work?
Zelensky's "cry" has been responded to in recent days, on April 21, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill by a majority vote to allocate nearly $61 billion to Ukraine, of which $11.3 billion will be used to support "the ongoing U.S. military operation in Ukraine."
In an interview with NBC on the 21st, Zelensky thanked the U.S. House of Representatives for passing the bill to fund military aid to Ukraine: "This aid will strengthen Ukraine and send a strong signal to the Kremlin that 'Ukraine will not become a second Afghanistan'."
It is reported that Werner, chairman of the US Senate Intelligence Committee, said in an interview with CBS that the US Senate will pass a bill to allocate about $61 billion to Ukraine as soon as the 23rd, and it is estimated that the supply of a new batch of weapons to Ukraine will resume within a week at the earliest.
It seems that the lack of weapons is also not a sufficient reason for Zelensky to want "peace talks".
(3) Are there any other evidence of "peace talks"?
The two points of evidence that led to the "peace talks" are not sufficient at present, and are there any other details of the "peace talks" that deserve attention? After checking again, we found that many of the information on the Internet mentioned a key information point: "Zelensky relented for the first time and held peace talks with Russia without considering the 1991 borders." "There are details in the description, maybe there is more conclusive evidence in them?
However, as early as mid-July 2023, a number of media outlets, including the "Ukrainian National News Agency" and "TASS", reported that Zelensky said that Ukraine would be ready to negotiate only if the Armed Forces of Ukraine controlled the 1991 border. What did the border mean in 1991? Let's hear from the experts.
In general, the 1991 border mentioned by Zelensky means that Russia must return Crimea and eastern Ukraine to Ukraine in order to have a dialogue with Ukraine. This is a very high diplomatic condition for peace talks, and it does not seem to be realistic at present.
It seems that Zelensky and Putin are essentially opposite in terms of the basic conditions of "peace talks", so what are the particularly important variables that have emerged now that have caused Zelensky to change his mind and even overturn the previously set premise for peace talks?
In the articles and information mentioning the "1991 border peace talks" on the Chinese network, we see two sources of information, namely Russian media and American media. After inquiry, the forensic team found two articles published on March 30, 2024, respectively, from the "Russian Satellite News Agency" and "RIA Novosti", both of which said: Zelensky agreed to talks with Russia for the first time without considering the 1991 borders.
However, there is no similarly explicit coverage in the mainstream media in the United States. However, it was mentioned in the articles of "Sputnik" and "RIA Novosti" that Zelensky had been interviewed by the "CBS press department". This may be the so-called American media source.
But after carefully reading the two articles, we did not find conclusive evidence that Zelensky directly mentioned the "1991 borders", and both articles mentioned the same thing: Zelensky pointed out in an interview with CBS that if Ukraine can return to the 2022 borders before the special military operation, Russia will be ready for dialogue.
We found the full interview video of Zelensky posted on social platforms by CBS on March 28. After inquiry, the similar content quoted in the two Russian media articles appeared at about 23 minutes and 09 seconds of the video, but the expressions were different:
Judging from the information we have so far, the Russian-Ukrainian "peace talks" may be another incident that catches the wind.
Producer: Liang Yin
Choreographer: Yang Xinye
Editor: Yu Erya Zhang Xining