8.2 million units!
UBS analysis shows that the domestic auto market sales will still grow by 4% this year, mainly from the replacement of scrapped models.
Measured by a 15-year scrapping cycle, China's auto market grew rapidly from 2008 to 2010, with annual passenger car sales soaring to 12 million units. According to estimates, the market demand brought by the scrapping and replacement of this batch of old cars will reach 8.2 million.
In the car market, where there is no most volume, only more volume, the battle for sales continues to escalate, and the sales of each car are particularly precious. The big cake of 8.2 million cars is placed in front of the car people, some people cut off orders and rush to eat, and some people recommend friends to eat it, how to eat the big cake replaced by the car?
More than 8.2 million
There is no industry that has more drama than the automobile market, and one of the root causes is that the automobile market is large enough.
At the regular briefing on the State Council's policies held by the Information Office of the State Council not long ago, Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the mainland is a big country that owns machinery, equipment, and durable consumer goods. According to the estimates of relevant institutions, the number of automobiles exceeds 300 million, and the mainland's annual demand for automobiles and household appliances is more than one trillion yuan.
With the help of policies, the car replacement market is lively.
Recently, the Ministry of Commerce and 14 other departments jointly issued the "Action Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods". On April 12, the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Notice on the Implementation of Trade-in of Consumer Goods", proposing that the central government and local governments should work together to arrange funds to support the scrapping and renewal of automobiles, and encourage qualified localities to support the replacement and renewal of automobiles.
Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the passenger association, believes that the policy direction is very clear and has seized the new trend of scrapping in the market. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Public Security, in 2023, there will be 34.8 million newly registered motor vehicles and 24.56 million newly registered vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 6%. As of the end of December 2023, the number of motor vehicles in the country reached 440 million, of which 336 million were automobiles, accounting for 77% of the total number of motor vehicles.
Cui Dongshu estimated that the net increase in the number of scrapped vehicles in 2023 will be 7.56 million, an increase of 32%, and the overall growth of scrap is relatively fast, which is also a new trend after the epidemic. Considering that the new scrap renewal policy is supported by the state, the scrap base is growing rapidly, and there will be a great breakthrough in scrap renewal. "It is estimated that in 2024, the number of scrapped cars in the country will reach nearly 10 million, and some car owners will replace new cars, which will have an obvious effect on the car market. ”
Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association, also pointed out that the current central government's subsidies and specific plans have not yet been introduced, whether it is a total amount of financial support until it is spent, or as long as the eligible bicycles can get subsidies, because the policy details are not clear, so the overall scale of replacement is still difficult to predict. "Even if the policy is clear, the trade-in market is more complicated, for example, I scrapped a car under my name, but my family bought a new car, and it is difficult to measure the trade-in on a family-by-family basis with the available data. ”
However, Lang Xuehong said that according to the data disclosed by the large sample of the survey agency, the replacement accounts for about 45% of the new car sales, and according to the data of about 22 million domestic new car sales, the scale of the replacement is about 10 million.
The proportion of new energy vehicles may exceed 50%
After more than ten years, the trade-in program of consumer goods has been updated, and "car trade-in" has also been placed in an important position.
Compared with the previous central financial subsidy trade-in policy, the outstanding feature of this round of trade-in policy is that the central and local finances have made joint efforts, including reducing the down payment ratio of auto loans, eliminating old cars that meet the mandatory scrapping standards in accordance with laws and regulations, guiding enterprises to improve the level of recycling services, facilitating car owners to deliver cars, promoting door-to-door car collection service models, implementing facilitation measures such as "reverse invoicing" off-site transaction registration for second-hand car sales, and breaking down various invisible obstacles. Unified and coordinated policies on finance, investment, land use and even employment.
Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Nanjing, Suzhou, Jinan and other places responded positively and successively introduced trade-in policies. The subsidy effect of real money is direct, and some areas can enjoy a replacement subsidy of up to 30,000 yuan per car; the convenience of purchase and use is also very attractive, and some areas provide preferential concessions for car purchases in the form of further relaxing the restrictions on car licensing indicators and giving away charging piles, further stimulating the replacement market.
Lang Xuehong pointed out that the trade-in market usually points to consumption upgrades, such as the exchange of fuel vehicles for fuel vehicles, and usually chooses models with higher prices or grades. However, the situation will be more complicated when fuel vehicles are replaced by new energy vehicles, "There are many new energy vehicle companies that have reported that their 200,000 yuan level of new energy vehicle buyers have been converted from BBA owners in the traditional market." ”
A few days ago, the topic "Buying fuel vehicles has officially become a minority" once rushed to the first place on Baidu's hot search list. The latest data on the auto market released by the Passenger Car Market Joint Branch of the China Automobile Dealers Association from April 1 to 14: the wholesale and retail penetration rates of new energy vehicles in China have both exceeded 50%, which is the first time that the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles has exceeded 50%, reaching this historic node, 11 years ahead of the original 2035 year.
Lang Xuehong believes that the 50% achievement is related to factors such as price reductions by new energy vehicle companies in the short term. Although the penetration rate of new energy vehicles may not reach 50% when the data for the whole month of April is released, this also releases a signal: the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is not far from 50%. It is expected that the proportion of new energy vehicles in the replacement vehicles will be basically consistent with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the entire market.
The used car and scrap recycling markets are both wet and dewy
In the "trade-in" campaign, car companies are vying to launch preferential gift packages. Dozens of auto brands, including Chery Group, Geely Automobile, FAW Toyota, Xiaopeng, FAW-Volkswagen, Great Wall Motor, BYD, Beijing Hyundai, GAC, VOYAH Automobile, etc., have launched a trade-in subsidy policy, with exclusive preferential activities covering sedans, SUVs and MPVs and other models, and the maximum subsidy for a single car of some car companies is even as high as 50,000 yuan, and interest-free loans can save 100,000 yuan.
Lang Xuehong also believes that at present, car companies should take advantage of the attention of the whole society to the "trade-in" policy, and take advantage of the trend to launch policies to encourage scrapping and renewal, and trade-in policies to attract the attention of consumers. "It can be seen that many car companies have launched relevant measures, and the subsidy of real money is unprecedented. ”
In fact, a new wave of trade-in not only drives the new car consumer market, but also directly drives the second-hand car and scrap recycling market.
Lang Xuehong pointed out that there is no shortage of "old for old" consumers in the trade-in market, such as young people who have just entered the society, small and medium-sized business owners, etc., they are more in pursuit of cost-effective models, and second-hand cars that are several years old can also meet their needs, which will undoubtedly drive the activity of the second-hand car market.
Compared with "trade-in", Cui Dongshu believes that "scrapping and renewing" can fundamentally promote the growth of automobile sales, improve the use of vehicles, and reduce environmental pollution.
The "Action Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods" clearly states that by 2025, the elimination of passenger cars with emission standards of China III and below will be accelerated, the recycling volume of scrapped vehicles will increase by 50% compared with last year, and by 2027, the recycling volume of scrapped vehicles will double that of last year, and the transaction volume of second-hand cars will increase by 45%.
Cui Dongshu predicts that nearly 10 million scrapped cars are expected in 2024 and 15 million in 2027. The used car transaction will exceed 20 million units in 2024 and reach 27 million units in 2027. "We look forward to the implementation rules for the subsequent scrapping and renewal of vehicles, and further clarify the requirements for scrapped vehicles, the scope of subsidized models, and the amount of subsidies, and look forward to more real money subsidies to promote scrapping and renewal and trade-in. ”
Text: Hao Wenli Editor: Huang Xia Layout: Zhao Fangting
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