On April 23, Taiwan's Public Opinion Foundation released poll data showing that 9.4 percent of Ma Ying-jeou's visit to the mainland said that it was "very helpful," 26.8 percent said it was "somewhat helpful," 29.3 percent said it was "not helpful at all," 25.9 percent thought it was "not very helpful," 5.7 percent had no opinion, and 2.8 percent did not know. The results showed that 36.2% said it was "helpful" and 55.2% said it was "not helpful".
On the same day, the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation released a poll report for April, which conducted a survey on the Tsai Ing-wen government's cross-strait policy, and the results showed that 13.7 percent were very satisfied, 31.7 percent were somewhat satisfied, 21.5 percent were not very satisfied, 26.5 percent were very dissatisfied, 4.5 percent had no opinion, and 1.9 percent did not know. The overall result is that 45.4 percent of the Taiwanese people are satisfied with Tsai Ing-wen's "cross-strait policy."
Let's combine these two so-called Taiwan's latest poll data, first of all, in the 2024 election on the island, Lai Qingde got 40% of the votes, which are basically the basic plate of the DPP. Most of Ke Wenzhe's votes are from the DPP's young group, about 20%. At least 10 percent of those who voted for the KMT at that time were centrists.
The proportion of people in the pan-blue camp on the island is about 30 percent, and 36.2 percent of Ma Ying-jeou's visit to the mainland this time think it is "helpful". Tsai Ing-wen's cross-strait policy is 45.4 percent satisfied, all of whom are from the green camp and a small number of centrists. This is the current political ecology on the island, or the basis of public opinion. The trend of "Taiwan independence" in Taiwan Province is no longer inevitable, and if there is no strong intervention by external forces.
According to the latest polls on the support of Taiwan's political parties: 33% for the Democratic Progressive Party, 19.2% for the Kuomintang, and 18.6% for the People's Party. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is the dominant party on the island, and it is difficult to change the pattern of being in power for a long time, and neither the Kuomintang nor the People's Party is powerless to challenge the DPP. That is why the DPP authorities dare to continue to provoke and confront Chinese mainland's cards and confidence.
On April 23, Lai Qingde announced the fifth batch of personnel appointments, among which Guan Biling's continued appointment as the chairman of the "Maritime Affairs Commission" has attracted attention, because the "2.14 Kinmen malicious collision incident" has not yet been conclusive. And Guan Biling played a very bad influence in it, and was denounced by the Taiwan media as the "six non-main committees".
The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council has publicly named and criticized Guan Biling for concealing the truth and being extremely cold-blooded. At that time, there were rumors that the reason why Guan Biling handled this matter in this way and caused tension in cross-strait relations was that she was giving Lai Qingdena a "vote." In the view of the DPP authorities, as long as the 14 February Kinmen malicious ship collision incident drags on, it will be able to "turn a big incident into a small one and a small one." In the end, the mainland will swallow the bitter fruit and will not be able to do so.
Why did Lai Qingde stay in charge of Guan Biling, instead of taking the initiative to show goodwill to the mainland, borrowing a donkey to go downhill, and handling the malicious collision incident in Kinmen as soon as possible, so as to prevent cross-strait relations from continuing to deteriorate. It can be seen from this that Lai Qingde will certainly continue to use this incident to provoke cross-strait confrontation, stimulate the "anti-China" populism on the island, and further consolidate the basic position of the DPP. At the same time, Lai Qingde will continue to use this matter to blackmail Chinese mainland and make concessions to the DPP authorities in other aspects.