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April is coming to an end, the domestic soybean meal market is showing a trend of ups and downs, the market lacks obvious directionality, the bottom of the price support is relatively firm, but, due to the massive soybean imports are about to arrive in Hong Kong, the market is expected to be poor for soybean meal, at this stage soybean meal spot is facing the fundamentals of "strong reality, weak expectations", the market or will usher in a "watershed", soybean meal in May or will be weak to run, is soybean meal 3000 yuan / ton beckoning?
According to the analysis of institutional data, at present, in terms of domestic coastal oil mills, Shandong, Guangdong, Tianjin and Jiangsu, the price of 43% protein soybean meal is 3260~3370 yuan/ton, which is about 100 yuan/ton higher than the previous low value, and the market is showing a low-level shock trend. In the national wholesale market, the average price of domestic spot soybean meal was 3371 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan from the previous month, a decrease of only 0.74%!
At present, the soybean meal market is intertwined with long and short, and the factors supporting spot soybean meal are as follows:
On the one hand, due to the low level of soybean meal inventory in the early stage, the pace of accumulation is relatively slow, and the spot supply is slightly tight; on the other hand, this month, the shutdown and maintenance of oil mills in many places in China has increased, the soybean crushing level has declined, and the operating rate of oil mills has increased slowly;
Second, soybean meal purchase and sales enthusiasm is strong! Since the beginning of this month, the spot soybean meal trading heat has been relatively improved, in the early stage, after the execution of oil mill orders, the new orders are more positive, according to the data, this month's domestic sample oil mills, soybean meal transaction level in 3.6 million tons, although, compared with a slight decline last month, but, spot transactions in about 2.23 million tons, the transaction is relatively positive!
Third, the domestic soybean meal import cost is higher, due to the estimated reduction of soybean production in Brazil, the pressure on Brazilian soybean exports has been reduced, the inventory pressure has been eased, and the farmers' subscription mentality is weak, and the Brazilian soybean discount price remains high, and the discount price at this stage is about 130 cents / bu, which also increases the cost of domestic soybean imports, and there is a certain bottom support for spot soybean meal!
However, soybean meal spot is still facing a situation of "weak expectations"!
On the one hand, the scale of imported soybeans into Hong Kong may increase significantly, and the pace of oil mill accumulation may be accelerated, especially in April, soybean imports may be about 9.5 million tons, and the soybean inventory level of oil mills will increase, and the operating rate may rise as a whole. In May, imported soybeans are estimated to be about 11.8 million tons, the operating rate of oil mills will remain high, the supply level of spot soybean meal may improve significantly, and the pressure of soybean meal accumulation in some oil mills may surge;
On the other hand, Brazilian soybean discount quotations may be loosened. Although, Brazil's soybean production declined, but the overall increase in South American soybean production, in particular, Argentina's soybean production or will increase significantly, with the end of the South American soybean harvest, soybean export competition or will increase, Brazil's soybean discount quotation will be lowered, will inevitably reduce the cost of domestic soybean imports, negative soybean meal spot market!
However, in May, with the concentration of imported soybeans into Hong Kong, the pace of soybean meal accumulation is accelerated, superimposed, the Brazilian soybean discount is expected to be lowered, and the center of gravity of soybean meal spot quotation may fall, rationally, in May, soybean meal spot is expected to fall to about 3000 yuan / ton!