If you are a stock investor, perhaps you should look for some "weather vanes" in the stock market from the news.
Blinken's visit to China and China's stock market, these two seem to be incompatible, but in fact, there is a connection between the two.
There are too many things that are connected, and there is a "money machine" hidden in it.
Here are two examples that all of Lao Zhu's readers have personally experienced:
On February 24, 2022, the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, and on August 19 of the same year, Lao Zhu accidentally read a news from the Internet, saying that there was a Chinese-made three-jumper on the battlefield in Ukraine.
On the day Lao Zhu wrote that article, the closing price of this stock was 4.91, and yesterday, the closing price of this stock was 6.5, that is to say, after reading Lao Zhu's article that day, you bought Longjin General, and kept holding it, as of yesterday, there was more than 30% of the profit, which is much better than the current mourning on the stock market?
Here's another example:
Lao Zhu mentioned in the article before that as soon as the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, Luoyang Tractor Factory stopped the tractor production line, three shifts, we won't say what the specific production is, let's just look at the trend of stock prices:
On May 23, 2023, when Lao Zhu wrote that article, the closing price of Luoyang Tractor Factory's stock that day was 11.57, and yesterday's closing price was 17.03, with a 50% profit.
This is the "money machine" in the news.
The past is gone, and it's too late to regret it, let's look forward.
In today's article, Lao Zhu will analyze Blinken, who will come to our house tomorrow to visit, from the perspective of a bystander, and the "voiceover" in the interview topic, and then try to find the "money machine" inside:
According to the U.S. State Department's April 20 announcement, Blinken will meet with his Chinese counterpart in Shanghai and Beijing to discuss bilateral, regional, and global issues, including the Middle East crisis, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Taiwan Strait affairs, and the South China Sea.
Looking at this kind of big framework, I can't see anything, we have to look at the specific issues, Lao Zhu summarized a few "possible issues" from the news released before Blinken's visit to China one by one, and tried to analyze the "voiceover" in it:
Possible issue 1: China must not help Russia rebuild its defense industrial system, buy Russian oil, or help its industrial development
Before Blinken arrived, the wind blew, and according to media sources, this was what Blinken wanted to talk about most during his visit to China.
We don't know if what Blinken is asking is true, but following in Blinken's footsteps and looking in the news and the comments below, there are certainly opportunities.
Lao Zhu said that Loncin General was because he saw on Weibo that there were three Chinese-made jumpers on the battlefield between Russia and Ukraine, and that the Luoyang Tractor Factory was because he accidentally heard that the tractor factory worked three shifts when chatting with a reader one night.
If, I mean, if, as Blinken said, let's help Russia rebuild its defense industry, then what stocks might be involved, wouldn't there be a direction?
Possible topic 2: Urge China to stop buying Iranian oil and persuade Iran to avoid a head-on war with Israel
This is the data given by the National Bureau of Statistics, and there is no Iran in it.
There is no Iran at all in our energy import country, so why would the United States give us this hat? After tracing all the way and finding the answer, we will find a money opportunity, in other words, these companies that import oil from Iran are the masters who make a lot of money in a muffled voice.
Find out them, see if the stock price is speculated, give up if it is speculated, and buy some if it is not speculated.
Possible topic 3: The United States requires China to cut photovoltaic and new energy sources, and increase the price of new energy vehicles, so as to preserve the survival space of the automobile manufacturing industry in Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea
Above: Lao Zhu saw it from the Weibo V@ account that contains all things in the Ganges River
In March, China's monthly solar cell output reached a new high of more than 55GW, up 29% year-on-year and 150% over the same period in 2022, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Due to too much speculation in photovoltaic and new energy, the stock prices of related companies must be at a high level, so Lao Zhu suggested giving up this direction.
Even if the industry is more profitable and promising, the stock price is speculated, and the risk is greater.
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall, this is the iron law of stock speculation.
The purpose of listing this is to tell you that when you swipe your mobile phone every day, don't just watch the excitement, and try to sniff out some "wind direction" from some news.
Possible issue 4: The United States must not surpass the United States in the field of shipbuilding and peninsula bodies, and at the same time, the price of China's related products must rise, otherwise it will face sanctions.
The peninsula body field is too hot, just give up. You can study the shipbuilding industry, here, Lao Zhu can say with certainty that in less than 10 years, 80% of the orders in the global shipbuilding industry will be in the hands of relevant Chinese enterprises.
Possible Agenda Item 5: Demand that China avoid disputes with Southeast Asian countries in the direction of the South China Sea and refrain from expanding the area of islands and reefs
"No longer expand the area of islands and reefs", which shows that we have been expanding the area of islands and reefs before, what equipment is used to expand the area of islands and reefs?
China has the need to expand the area of islands and reefs, and other countries, especially some wealthy small island countries, must have more needs in this regard.
Possible Agenda Issue 6: Ask China to buy American Boeing planes, corn, potatoes and other agricultural products to reduce the trade surplus.
In the Sino-US trade, those enterprises that have a surplus on our side must be profitable, because this issue is a bit old, and the business opportunities in it are estimated that they have already been tapped, so they can be checked or not.
Possible item 7: Continue to buy U.S. Treasury bonds and consider measures such as the depreciation of the renminbi.
The depreciation of the RMB under pressure from the United States shows that our RMB has been appreciating, threatening the status of the US dollar.
Consider which companies will benefit from the appreciation of the RMB, although there is not much chance of making money, but from Blinken's pressure, you should understand that for a long time in the future, the RMB will appreciate, so, seeing that the US dollar is strong, you will exchange the RMB for US dollars, sooner or later there will be a time for you to cry.
It is an indisputable fact that the interest rate of the US dollar is high, but if you only focus on the interest of the US dollar and ignore the risk of the exchange rate that may be brought about by the depreciation of the US dollar, then no matter what field you make from it, you will eventually pay it back in terms of exchange rate.
Above:
This is the day before yesterday, the British Daily Telegraph: China's huge exports pose a threat to the world.
A "very honorable" thing, what you say may be bragging, but if it comes from "the opponent's complaint", probably this thing is true.
That is to say, the export momentum of our products in some fields is very strong, and we can check what Chinese export enterprises Europe is accusing, and how much the stocks of these enterprises have risen?
Recently, the world's major investment banks have raised their forecasts for China's economy:
JPMorgan was raised from 4.2% to 4.8%, Goldman Sachs from 4.8% to 5.0%, and ADB from 4.5% to 4.8%.
In other words, if nothing else, the mainland's economic growth in 2024 will be at the 5% line.
Previously, a reader told me that he was from the Bureau of Statistics, and their local GDP water injection exceeded 5 times the actual production capacity, whether it was true or false Lao Zhu didn't know, in history, our local Bureau of Statistics had a hobby of water injection, and everyone has long been accustomed to it, but Lao Zhu believes that the sore spot of Europe and the United States must be our thriving.
I just saw a set of data, in 1997, the UK's GDP was $1.56 trillion, China's $0.96 trillion, India's $0.41 trillion, and in 2023, the UK's GDP was $3.33 trillion, India's $3.4 trillion, and China's $17.89 trillion.
Thirty years ago, the UK's GDP was higher than that of China and India, and now China's GDP is five times that of the UK. -- "Imperialism is declining day by day, and China is rising day by day" is not an empty phrase.
At this point, some people will definitely say, Lao Zhu, you blow every day that China's economy will become the engine of the world economy, why do I see that housing prices are falling and more and more people are unemployed?
Look who's unemployed.
Programmers are the hardest hit areas, a project, research and development may need a team of 100 people, research and development only left maintenance, 10 people are enough; to build a community engineering team needs 500 people, sand, cement, steel and other building materials and decoration furniture and household appliances, etc., add up to 500 people, when the community is completed, may only need 5 security guards who begin to lose their teeth and 5 cleaner aunts who go to square dance after work, so, when these fields are basically saturated, the unemployment of personnel in the industry is inevitable.
Speculating on stocks and speculating on expectations, in the future, it will be China's equipment manufacturing industry that will sweep the world. The simplest, many ports along the coast have not seen the figure of workers, in the case, the unemployment of port workers does not affect the export of massive Chinese gantry cranes.
In the news a few days ago, it was said that the average deposit of Chinese is 110,000, just imagine, so much money lying in the bank to eat interest, what do banks think? They all want to earn money from the bank, are the banks fools? What should I do if I am not stupid? Cut interest rates, as long as a large number of deposits have not been able to be loaned, the interest will continue to fall, one day, like the previous economic powers such as Europe and Japan, it is not impossible to drop to negative interest rates.
With the strong recovery of China's economy on the one hand, and a lot of money lying on the bank books on the other, do you think that as interest rates continue to fall, where will this money go? At present, apart from the stock market, is there any other reservoir that can hold so much money? And if some of this money flows into the stock market, to which industries will it go?
To tell a joke, I brushed it up when I went to the toilet when I revised this article:
This goods, patting the butt and slapping the stomach regretted there, saying that a certain stock, he didn't buy it when it fell to the limit, and then it rose two points, saying that he missed 12% of the profits, and 99% of the leeks are this kind of people, just like the kind of stocks that jump up and down, all kinds of want to bet on and bet, this kind of person makes money ten times, and loses it once.
Where a person's time is, there is achievement. Don't study the strategic direction, don't study the fundamentals of the industry and the company, just blindly follow the trend to speculate on hot spots, and chase a high again when you are excited.
Find direction from the news, find value depressions in the industry, and at the same time, lower expectations - if you only want to earn more than interest in a year, how can you lose a lot?!
The equipment manufacturing industry will be a long-term positive part of the mainland stock market in the future, suitable for long-term, Lao Zhu said sorry, let time slowly confirm......
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