Source of this article: Times Finance Author: Yuchen
Image source: Picture Worm
In the context of the gradual slowdown in the growth rate of the global new energy market, the lithium battery industry chain will show an "involution" trend in 2023, and the profit margins of related enterprises will generally narrow.
As of April 18, among the A-share listed companies, anode material companies beiteri (835185.BJ), Putailai (603659. SH), Xiangfenghua (300890. SZ) has disclosed its 2023 annual report, during the reporting period, the three companies achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.654 billion yuan, 1.912 billion yuan and 83 million yuan respectively, down 28.42%, 38.42% and 48.39% from the same period last year.
As for the reasons for the decline in performance, the above-mentioned companies all explained that it was mainly caused by multiple factors such as cyclical changes in the industry, slowdown in terminal demand growth, decline in upstream raw material prices and changes in industry supply and demand.
Profit margins have narrowed significantly
Since 2021, with the rapid development of the global new energy vehicle market, anode materials, as a key component of lithium batteries, have once enjoyed the dividends of industry growth, and the price has also risen.
Baichuan Yingfu data shows that the price of anode materials has risen steadily since 2021. The low-end, mid-end, and high-end prices of natural graphite rose from 16,500 yuan/ton, 31,500 yuan/ton, and 50,500 yuan/ton in early 2021 to 27,000 yuan/ton, 42,000 yuan/ton, and 59,500 yuan/ton in May 2022, with an increase of 63.6%, 33.3%, and 17.8%, respectively, and then showed a stable operation trend for a period of time.
Affected by this, the performance level of various anode material manufacturers has also reached an unprecedented height. From 2021 to 2022, beiteri achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.441 billion yuan and 2.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 191.39% and 60.27%, Putailai achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.749 billion yuan and 3.104 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 161.93% and 77.53%, respectively, and Xiangfenghua achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 100 million yuan and 161 million yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 119.65% and 60.89%.
According to the statistics of Xinchun Information, as of the end of 2022, the output of lithium battery anode materials in China was 1.415 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 74.5%.
However, entering 2023, the new energy vehicle market will "cool down", the market demand will fail to keep up with the continuous growth of the production capacity of the entire industrial chain, the anode material market will be seriously overcapacity, and the increase in new players will make the competition in the anode material market more and more fierce, and the "price war" will continue to escalate, further squeezing the profitability of related enterprises.
In its 2023 annual report, beiteri bluntly said that overcapacity and intensified market competition have brought challenges and pressure to the entire industry.
It can be seen from the 2023 annual report that has been disclosed that even for leading companies such as beiteri and Putailai, it is not easy to make money. Specifically, in 2023, beiteri and Putailai will achieve net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.654 billion yuan and 1.912 billion yuan respectively, a decrease of 28.42% and 38.42% respectively from the same period of the previous year, while Xiangfenghua, which is in the second echelon, will achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 83 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 48.39%.
Image source: Drawing by Time Weekly
Specifically, in 2023, the sales volume of beiteri anode materials will exceed 360,000 tons, an increase from 330,000 tons in the previous year, however, the company's corresponding revenue from anode materials in 2023 will reach 12.296 billion yuan, compared with 14.633 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 15.97%. It can be seen that the price of beiteri anode materials will be about 44,300 yuan/ton in 2022 and about 34,200 yuan/ton in 2023, and the price decline is more serious.
The same is true for PTL. The annual report shows that the sales volume of anode materials in 2023 will increase by 11.35% year-on-year, but the revenue is not as good as the previous year, in 2023, Putailai will integrate the management of anode materials and graphitization, and the total revenue of the two products will be 6.611 billion yuan, and the revenue of a single product of anode materials in 2022 will reach 7.65 billion yuan.
Capacity utilization declined
The demand of the new energy terminal market has slowed down, the anode material market as a whole has a structural oversupply, and enterprises are facing the pressure of inventory backlog and falling prices.
In 2023, beiteri has put into operation 495,000 tons of anode material production capacity, Putailai's existing production capacity is 150,000 tons, and the production capacity under construction mainly includes three projects in Sichuan with a production capacity of 280,000 tons, which are expected to be put into operation in 2024, completed in the second quarter of 2024, and put into operation in 2025, and a 12,000-ton silicon-based anode project is expected to be gradually put into operation in 2025.
On the other hand, companies are also slower. The reporter learned from the annual reports of previous years that the sales growth rate of Putailai's anode materials in 2022 will be 43.45%, and the growth rate will drop to 11.35% in 2023, the sales volume of beiteri anode materials will be 160,000 tons in 2021, more than 330,000 tons in 2022, and more than 360,000 tons in 2023, and the growth rate will also decrease from 106% to 9.09%, and the sales growth rate of Xiangfenghua lithium battery materials will be 71.70% in 2022 and a year-on-year decrease of 9.48% in 2023.
It is understood that beiteri's asset impairment loss in 2023 will increase by 223.53% compared with the previous period, which the company said is mainly due to the increase in the loss of inventory decline and the impairment loss of non-current assets in the current period. As for the specific inventory during the reporting period, on April 18, Time Weekly sent an interview outline to beiteri, but as of press time, the other party has not replied.
In 2023, the loss of inventory decline and the impairment loss of contract performance cost will reach 1.050 billion yuan, an increase of 960.61% over the previous period. At the same time, the annual report data shows that in 2023, the inventory of Putailai anode materials will reach 26,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 70.48%. Xiangfenghua's inventory of lithium battery materials in 2023 will reach 7,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.19%.
However, compared with small and medium-sized enterprises, the anti-risk ability of leading enterprises may be relatively strong. On April 16, Times Weekly called the securities department of Putailai, and its staff said that "the overall impairment risk of the company's anode materials has been basically released and digested." ”
In addition, from the perspective of capacity utilization, the capacity utilization rate of anode materials in beiteri in 2023 will reach 78.93%, compared with 103.80% in the same period of the previous year, and the capacity utilization rate of graphite anode materials in Xiangfenghua in 2023 will be 82.69%, compared with 109.78% in the same period of the previous year.
On April 18, Wanlian Securities Investment Consultant Qu Fang said: "In fact, the main force of anode material destocking is still small and medium-sized enterprises, and the extremely low capacity utilization rate and high equipment depreciation costs promote the small and medium-sized enterprises to continue to survive The space is extremely limited." ”
Qu Fang further said that at present, the overall capacity utilization rate of the anode material industry is about 60%, and the overall capacity utilization rate of small and medium-sized enterprises is even less than 30% because the top six companies occupy a market share of nearly 80%.
The market waits for a "bottoming rally"
The whole market is waiting for a "bottoming out", and Wang Lili, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said, "Since March 2024, the demand of downstream battery factories has begun to recover, bringing a signal of recovery to the anode material market." ”
On March 15, Shangtai Technology (001301. SZ) said in the investor relations activities, "(this year) since March, some electric vehicles have started the price reduction strategy, while a new generation of intelligent electric vehicles continue to be launched, the downstream power battery market demand has picked up, and the recovery trend is obvious, driving the demand for anode materials to increase, and the pressure on the market supply side has been eased, and it is expected that the price level of anode materials will gradually show a 'bottoming out' trend with market fluctuations in 2024, and the overall price of the industry is expected to be repaired to a certain extent in 2024." ”
On April 15, Putailai said in the investor interactive platform, "At present, the price increase of some anode material products can partially alleviate the profit pressure of anode material enterprises, but the industry as a whole is still in a state of phased oversupply, and the head enterprises with differentiated product advantages, R&D technology advantages, and production capacity layout capabilities are expected to usher in a new round of opportunities in the future industry pattern." ”
Shanshan Co., Ltd. also said in the recent investor interactive platform, "In 2023, the price of products in the anode industry has declined significantly, and with the gradual clearing of production capacity and the stabilization of upstream raw materials and graphitization processing prices, it is expected that there will be less room for further decline in anode prices in 2024." ”
For the changes in the supply and demand relationship and price trend of anode materials in the future, Baichuan Yingfu analysts believe that on the one hand, the terminal new energy vehicle market is getting better and better, the energy storage market and the consumer electronics market have picked up, the demand for downstream battery cell enterprises has increased, and the operating situation of some small and medium-sized anode enterprises has also continued to rise with the market recovery, and the supply of anode materials market has further increased. On the other hand, the price war of terminal car companies is more intense, the demand for cost reduction of the entire industrial chain is obvious, and due to the obvious homogenization of anode materials, the downstream price comparison and bargaining, the status quo of enterprise profit promotion still exists.
"Although some battery companies have recently increased the price of anode materials, the entire industry is still less than expected. Qu Fang said that in the technical path of anode materials, the current mainstream choices are silicon-based anodes and next-generation lithium metal anodes. Once pure solid-state batteries are marketized, it will drive the expansion of the production capacity of a new generation of anode materials.