Recently, U.S. House of Representatives lawmakers overwhelmingly passed legislation again, which could lead to a nationwide ban on TikTok, posing a huge threat to the company's operations in the United States. The move could accelerate a proposal that TikTok has been fighting for weeks. If the House strategy succeeds, TikTok could be forced to find a new owner, or be banned in the U.S. altogether.
Last month, House lawmakers approved a bill that would give TikTok about six months to find a buyer. Failure to do so will result in the app being banned from the US App Store and the "Internet hosting services" that support it. The U.S. Congress's in-depth posture has drawn the platform that is on the radar of 170 million Americans into the vortex.
Although the attitude towards sanctions has been the same, there have been some substantial changes from before. Unlike the six-month period, TikTok will currently have about nine months to prepare. If Biden determines that progress has been made on the sale, the White House could extend that period by 90 days.
Giving TikTok up to a year to complete the forced sale seems to have become a "palace ploy" on Capitol Hill. Some key lawmakers, who were previously skeptical, have now switched sides and said they support the bill. One of those legislators is Senator Maria Cantwell, Democrat of Washington, and behind her is the powerful Senate Commerce Committee.
Another stirring factor was the insertion of the TikTok bill into a larger foreign aid resolution by House Republicans. Rather than requiring the Senate to vote on the TikTok bill alone, tying the bill to foreign aid resolutions to Ukraine and Israel makes it harder for lawmakers to oppose TikTok measures.
Senators may try to divest TikTok and legislate, but some foreign policy analysts think that's unlikely. Swift approval of the foreign aid resolution is a top priority for Congress, and if the Senate passes a resolution that does not include the TikTok bill, these changes will require House approval, further delaying the resolution.
The Senate is more likely to consider the entire resolution for a one-time vote, which certainly seems to be what House Republicans want. According to Paul Gallant, a policy analyst at market research firm Cowen, the chances of passing the Senate are as high as 80%. Gallant added that the Senate could vote in one to two weeks, despite the desire of the Senate leadership to move faster.
If the Senate votes to approve TikTok legislation, it will go to Biden. Biden backed a previous version of the TikTok bill, suggesting that he could quickly sign any foreign aid resolution that included similar language against TikTok.
Theoretically, this would kick off a 270-day countdown to TikTok's search for buyers. If it can't be separated from China's parent company, ByteDance, then users could be forcibly disconnected. While TikTok fans can continue to use the app as they did for now, they may see more creators or the company itself speak out against the legislation in the app.
Aside from complying with the legislation, TikTok is not going to sit still, and its chief executive, Zhou Shouzi, said in March that he would continue the fight and lobbied on Capitol Hill.
Michael Beckman, TikTok's head of public policy for the Americas, said in a memo sent to TikTok's U.S. employees that the company would fight in court if the divestiture bill was signed into law. Currently, TikTok is trying to fend off an existential crisis in its most important market.
According to market sources, TikTok is preparing to fire the company and ByteDance's general counsel in the United States, Erich Anderson, who has led communication with the U.S. government for years to address the latter's concerns and allegations about "national security," but the results have been less than satisfactory. According to other sources, Anderson has informed other executives that he is ready to resign, but will stay in the company until a suitable successor is found. A TikTok spokesperson said when asked if the company would remove Anderson: "This is 100% untrue. ”
On the other hand, TikTok and many civil society groups have slammed the House of Representatives' legislation as unconstitutional, arguing that it violates the First Constitutional Amendment designed to guarantee TikTok users' right to legitimate information.
First Constitutional Amendment experts say a bill that would have the ultimate effect of censoring TikTok users could be dismissed by the courts. It is unclear whether the bill's recent updates will help it pass constitutional review.
"Supreme Court precedent has long protected Americans' First Amendment rights to information, ideas, and media from abroad. Nadine Farid Johnson, director of policy at Columbia University's First Amendment Institute, said, "By banning TikTok, the bill would violate that right, and there would be no real reward." China and other foreign adversaries can still buy sensitive data on Americans from data brokers on the open market. ”
If forced by the U.S. Congress, TikTok will have to rush to comply with U.S. law. But tricky is that TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, is subject to Chinese law, and the Chinese government has previously explicitly opposed its sale.
In recent years, China has implemented policies to regulate the export of algorithms. At the same time as the Trump administration's request for ByteDance to sell TikTok in August 2020, China's Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Technology made some adjustments to the Regulations on the Administration of Technology Import and Export and the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export by China, explicitly listing "personalized information push service technology based on data analysis" as one of the technologies restricted from export.
In December 2023, the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted by China was updated again, listing in more detail the "personalized information push service technologies based on data analysis", and further clarifying which technologies fall within the scope of export restrictions.
Therefore, TikTok, which is under constant pressure from the US Congress, has a high probability of being forced to sell. At the same time, its parent company, ByteDance, will face a dilemma if it is subject to relevant domestic laws — if ByteDance must sell TikTok, it will not be allowed to include algorithms.
However, it remains to be seen what happens to TikTok without the support of a strong Chinese algorithm?