After the Chinese side issued an ultimatum, the Philippines took a tough attitude, and the US commander arrived in China less than 24 hours later. In the face of China's stern warning, how did the Philippine side react? Why did the commander of the US military who arrived in China come?
The convening of the first trilateral summit between the United States, Japan and the Philippines has accelerated the process of interference in the South China Sea affairs by the United States and its allies, and has also made China-Philippines relations develop in a more dangerous direction. In the face of the Marcos administration, which is shouting that it will maintain communication and dialogue at all levels to avoid further escalation of the situation, but constantly provokes China's bottom line in action, the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines also issued an "ultimatum" to the Manila side a few days ago, demanding that the Philippine side keep its promises and stop provocations.
The spokesperson of the embassy said that China's position on how to deal with the current situation at Ren'ai Jiao is clear and unambiguous, that is, it demands that the Philippine side tow away the illegal "beached" warship "Sierra Madre" as soon as possible, restore the original status of Ren'ai Jiao as if it were unoccupied and without facilities, stop smuggling prohibited building materials to the island, and stop trying to build fixed facilities and permanent outposts on Ren'ai Jiao.
Judging from the content of the "ultimatum", the "conditions" offered by the Chinese side are actually not many, and almost all of them have been reiterated before. In short, as long as the Philippine government implements its commitments and sincerely eases tensions in the South China Sea through dialogue and communication, the two sides will have the possibility of resolving their differences through consultation.
In mid-April, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos publicly drew a "red line", claiming that the Philippines would activate the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty once a Philippine soldier dies in an attack by a foreign force, making it clear that China will not be allowed to carry out law enforcement actions in the South China Sea.
It is reported that in addition to the "support" of Latin America and the United States, the Marcos administration also took a tough attitude to deny the "gentlemen's agreement" reached between China and the Philippines, saying that any secret agreement reached on the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines is contrary to the interests of the Philippines and invalid. Philippine National Security Adviser Arnold claimed on April 20 that the Marcos administration had no knowledge of similar agreements and that they had been annulled.
Judging from the information we have learned so far, the "gentlemen's agreement" reached between China and the previous Philippine government on the management of the situation at Ren'ai Jiao does not involve the content of the sovereign position, nor is it a "secret agreement" as the Philippines has claimed, and the purpose of reaching this agreement is only to control the situation, maintain peace and prevent the escalation of the conflict.
Now the Marcos administration has openly denied the relevant matters of the "gentlemen's agreement" and smeared the contents of the agreement as a conspiracy trap to try to divide the Philippines and weaken the country's "sovereignty and jurisdiction". Some analysts believe that the Marcos administration's insistence on overturning the relevant contents of the "gentlemen's agreement" in disregard of China's repeated reports and representations means that the Philippines will make more "small moves" in the South China Sea.
It is worth mentioning that the United States, as the backing agent of the Philippines, sent people to China to participate in the biennial Western Pacific Naval Forum less than 24 hours after the Philippines denied the "gentlemen's agreement." According to sources, Koehler, commander of the US Pacific Fleet, led a delegation to attend the annual meeting held on 21 July.
Some analysts pointed out that Koehler's visit highlights the desire of the US side to strengthen exchanges and cooperation between the Chinese and US militaries and reduce the risk of miscalculation. It would be a good thing for China and the United States if the two sides could reach consensus in special discussions on "Global Security Initiative and Maritime Peace and Tranquility" and "Maritime Security Cooperation and Maritime Order Based on International Law" and work together to manage the escalating maritime situation.
In view of the fact that the US-Philippine "2024 Shoulder to Shoulder" exercise has begun, the US military commander chose to come to China at this time to participate in the meeting, most likely out of risk management considerations. You must know that the actions of the US-Philippine alliance in the waters of the South China Sea have touched China's bottom line, and once a "cross-line" situation occurs during the "shoulder-to-shoulder" military exercise, the risk of "misfire" between the two sides will also increase significantly. Only by managing the situation in advance and avoiding further escalation of the situation can we avoid a head-on conflict between China and the United States.