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Market Overview
The blockbuster earnings week arrived, the S&P Nasdaq ended its six-day losing streak, the Nasdaq closed up more than 1% after a short-term decline, the Dow Jones rose three times in a row, Goldman Sachs rose more than 3% to lead the constituent stocks; Tesla closed down after only cutting prices in the "Seven Sisters", falling for seven consecutive days, once falling nearly 6% and closing down more than 3%, Nvidia rebounded more than 4% to lead the gains; the chip stock index closed up 1.7%, and Arm rose nearly 7%. British stocks rose more than 1% to a record high, the European technology sector stopped falling for four consecutive years, and ASML still fell nearly 1%.
The two-year Treasury yield rose above 5.0% intraday to hit a five-month high before turning lower. The U.S. dollar index turned lower in intraday trading, the yen fell to 155 to hit a new low since 1990, and the pound hit a five-month low in a row. Bitcoin rose more than $2,000 intraday after the "halving", approaching $67,000 for the first time in a week.
Risks in the Middle East eased, gold and silver dived, gold fell to a record high, gold futures fell nearly 3%, the largest decline in 14 months, and silver futures fell more than 5% to record the largest decline in nearly three years; crude oil fell, and Brent oil revenue hit a new low in more than three weeks. Lunxi fell by more than 3%, London copper stopped three consecutive yangs, fell to a two-year high, and London aluminum hit a new high in the past two years.
In the Chinese market, A-shares fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, and cyclical stocks such as oil and gas collectively fell, with Hong Kong stocks up more than 1%, Tencent up more than 5%, and Li Auto falling more than 8%. U.S.-listed Chinese concept stocks outperformed the market, with the Chinese concept stock index rising more than 2%, Li Auto closing down 5.6%, NIO closing up more than 5% after falling 5% at the beginning of the session, and Pinduoduo rising more than 9%. The offshore yuan rose above 7.25 near a one-week high.
News
With the theme of "Further Deepening the Reform of the Capital Market and Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of the Capital Market", the State Council conducted the seventh special study.
China "does not cut interest rates", and the one-year and five-year LPR remained unchanged in April.
Huawei "cut off" Xiaomi, use Xiaomi SU7 order to buy Zhijie S7, Huawei store discount 5,000 yuan; Li Auto followed Tesla's official announcement of price cuts, of which the ideal MEGA will be reduced by 30,000 yuan.
Tesla fell for seven consecutive years before the release of its earnings report, falling nearly 6% at one point, and Tesla's marketing team, which was only four months old, was reportedly laid off.
Media: Apple is launching an AI race to develop its own device-side large model, and SoftBank will spend $960 million to enhance AI computing power.
The market closes
U.S. stocks: The Dow rose 0.67%, the S&P 500 rose 0.87%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.11%.
European stocks: Europe's STOXX 600 index closed up 0.60%. Germany's DAX 30 index closed up 0.64%. France's CAC 40 index closed up 0.22%. Britain's FTSE 100 index closed up 1.62%.
A-shares: ChiNext fell 0.67%, Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.43%, ChiNext Index fell 0.32%.
Bond market: By the end of the bond market, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was about 4.61%, down about 1 basis point on the day, and the two-year Treasury yield was about 4.97%, down about 2 basis points on the day.
Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for May delivery closed down $0.29, or 0.35%, at $82.85 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for June delivery closed down $0.29, or 0.33%, at $87.00 a barrel. COMEX gold futures for June delivery closed down 2.79% at $2,346.4 an ounce. COMEX silver futures for May delivery closed down 5.54% at $27.245 an ounce. London tin closed down more than 3%, London lead fell more than 2%, and London nickel rose more than 2%.
Highlights
Domestic macro
Premier Li Qiang presided over the seventh special study of the State Council. On the afternoon of April 22, the State Council held the seventh special study with the theme of "Further Deepening the Reform of the Capital Market and Promoting the Steady and Healthy Development of the Capital Market".
China's "no interest rate cut", the one-year and five-year loan prime rate (LPR) remained unchanged in April. The one-year LPR was at 3.45%, compared with 3.45% in the previous month, and the five-year LPR was at 3.95%, compared with 3.95% in the previous month.
Ministry of Finance: In the first quarter, the national general public budget revenue was 6,087.7 billion yuan, a comparable increase of 2.2%. Wang Dongwei, vice minister of finance, said that in the first quarter, tax revenue in cultural and tourism consumption, advanced manufacturing and other industries grew rapidly.
Beijing's new mortgage policy: If you have been divorced for less than one year but have no house in your name, the interest rate on the first home loan will be implemented from April 23. With the continuous relaxation of the housing purchase policy, the data shows that the sentiment of Beijing's real estate market has improved after the Spring Festival.
Huijin "exploded" ETF non-stop, "smashed" 330 billion yuan in the first quarter, holding more than 412.5 billion yuan.
The latest investment exposure of star fund managers. Judging from the position adjustment in the first quarter, Liu Yanchun has made some adjustments to individual stocks in response to changes in business risks, and still prefers those companies with good business models and advantages in market-oriented competition; Zhu Shaoxing is committed to finding value in high-quality stocks; and the shareholding structure of Bao Wuke of Invesco Great Wall Fund has not changed significantly, and energy-related resource sectors occupy a large proportion of the portfolio.
Domestic companies
Huawei "cut off" Xiaomi, use Xiaomi SU7 order to buy Zhijie S7, Huawei store: 5000 yuan reduction. According to reports, since the launch of Xiaomi SU7, Huawei's major stores have launched this temporary policy, which will last until the end of May.
Ideal officially announced a price cut, of which Ideal MEGA will reduce the price by 30,000 yuan.
- After Tesla's price cut, Li Auto also announced a price cut on the 22nd, and the 2024 ideal L7, ideal L8, ideal L9 and ideal MEGA will adopt a new price system, of which the ideal MEGA will be reduced by 30,000 yuan. Owners who have picked up their cars will be offered cashback.
- According to the analysis, the ideal has finally joined the price war. The top students of new energy vehicles have also been forced to reduce prices, although Tesla and Ideal are cutting prices in the same period, but their sadness is different.
iFLYTEK's profit deteriorated faster in the first quarter, with a net loss that widened by 418% year-on-year. Dragged down by the increase in R&D expenditure and the decrease in financial income, the company's net profit in the first quarter fell sharply by 242 million yuan. The net profit for the full year of 2023 will increase by 17% year-on-year, and a cash dividend of 229 million yuan will be distributed.
Overseas macro
This week, investors will be greeted with a record $183 billion Treasury auction. Investors are also confronted with geopolitical tensions and volatility brought on by PCE inflation data.
Overseas companies
Report: Apple is making efforts in AI competitions and self-developed end-side large models. Apple's large model will prioritize responsiveness and privacy protection, and details will be revealed at the June developer conference.
Huang's latest conversation: Humanoid robots will become mainstream, and the price will be about the same as cheap cars. In the future, humanoid robots may be much cheaper to manufacture, selling for between $10,000 and $20,000.
Media: Musk "All In" RoboTaxi and FSD, Big Layoffs and Postponement of Model 2. Tesla is "pulling all the stops for autonomous driving", and whether it's setting schedules or scheduling production capacity, driverless taxis are now prioritizing new models.
Media: Tesla's marketing team, which has only been established for four months, has been laid off. Over the weekend, some media said that Tesla's actual layoffs in this round may exceed 20,000, and Musk believes that the layoffs should reach 20%, rather than the more than 10% of the company's employees that the media reported last week that he was informing the company.
Report: SoftBank will spend $960 million to enhance AI computing power. SoftBank's investment includes the purchase of GPUs from NVIDIA, and some of the chips purchased will be used for its own AI research and development, and some will be leased to other companies in need.
The first batch of VCs who invested in large models began to sell old stocks. According to the analysis, "large model selling old stocks and exiting" exists as a phenomenon, but it is indeed far from being "phenomenal" and is not universal. It is not easy to commercialize large models, and they can be speculated in value, but they also need to take the opportunity to exit.
Industry/Concept
1. Liquid-cooled supercharge According to Huawei's official website, Huawei Digital Power will hold the 2024 Smart Electric & Smart Charging Network Strategy and New Product Launch Conference and the Launching Ceremony of the Supercharging Alliance on the afternoon of April 24, launching a new power domain intelligent fusion solution for pure electric and extended range hybrid platforms, and will also release a full range of ultra-fast charging solutions for all scenarios to build a high-quality industrial ecosystem.
Comments: According to media analysis, energy replenishment anxiety has increasingly become a key factor limiting the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, and high-voltage compared with high-current solutions has the advantages of light equipment, flexible design, large range of fast charging ranges, and high upper limits, and 800V high-voltage fast charging is expected to become the mainstream energy replenishment method in the future. According to the "China High Voltage Fast Charging Industry Development Report", the domestic 800V model sales penetration rate will reach 50% by the end of 2026. In order to achieve rapid energy replenishment, from the perspective of on-board components, the battery voltage of the whole vehicle has been increased from a low-voltage platform of 450V and below to a high-voltage platform of 750V and above, and the charging and distribution system, electric drive system, battery system and thermal management system have undergone significant changes. In September 2023, the supercharging standard was approved, and Huawei successively released plans for 600KW supercharging piles for the Sichuan-Tibet line and 100,000 supercharging piles in 2024. Pay attention to the technology upgrade direction of the whole pile enterprise with a high proportion of high-power DC piles, liquid-cooled modules, and liquid-cooled gun lines.
2. Hybrid vehicles| According to the Securities Times, the 2024 (18th) Beijing International Automobile Exhibition with the theme of "New Era and New Automobiles" will be held from April 25 to May 4. At this year's Beijing Auto Show, there were 117 world premieres (including 30 global premieres of multinational companies), 41 concept cars, and 278 new energy models. It is worth noting that the independent new energy potential energy of this Beijing Auto Show has been further strengthened, among which the proportion of plug-in hybrid new energy vehicles of independent brands has increased significantly, including the new M5 and M8 of Wenjie, Ideal L6, Leap C16, Qin L DM-i and many other popular plug-in hybrid/extended range models will be unveiled, becoming one of the biggest highlights of this auto show. Since the beginning of this year, the penetration rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles, including range extenders, has steadily increased. In February 2024, plug-in hybrid models accounted for 43.04% of NEV sales, an increase of 10.12 percentage points over the same period last year.
Comments: Zheshang Securities believes that at the moment when the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has been high, the continued expansion of new energy vehicles needs the support of the target customer group in the sinking market, and from the perspective of use scenarios and user acceptance, plug-in hybrid models are expected to be favored by more customers in the sinking market, and the proportion of plug-in hybrid models in new energy vehicles is expected to be further increased.
3. Automobile motor According to Huawei's official website, Huawei Digital Power will hold the 2024 Smart Electric and Intelligent Charging Network Strategy and New Product Launch Conference and the Launching Ceremony of the Supercharging Alliance on April 24, and Huawei DriveONE Strategy and New Product Release will launch a new power domain intelligent fusion solution for pure electric and extended-range hybrid platforms, and will also release a full range of ultra-fast charging solutions for all scenarios to build a high-quality industrial ecosystem.
Comments: Analysts say that the motor is the core component of the vehicle's drive system, and its performance directly affects the vehicle's power, efficiency and safety. With the rapid development of intelligence and electrification, the automotive industry is facing unprecedented changes, and for all automakers, having independent R&D and innovation capabilities will become the key to competing for market share. The emergence of DriveOne motor will promote the continuous progress and development of motor technology, and will bring new development opportunities and space to the related industry chain.
4. New industrialization According to the Securities Daily, a few days ago, a new round of digital transformation of the manufacturing industry was launched in many places to accelerate the process of new industrialization. Local governments, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, have proposed a series of policies to promote the digital, networked, and intelligent transformation and development of the manufacturing industry. These policies include financial subsidies, tax incentives, financing support, etc., to encourage enterprises to adopt digital technologies and equipment. At the same time, digital service platforms and digital industry clusters have also been built to provide enterprises with infrastructure and public services for digital transformation.
Comments: According to media analysis, new industrialization is a process that takes informatization as the driving force to promote the development of traditional industries in the direction of digitalization, networking and intelligence, and the digital transformation of manufacturing industry is a key part of realizing new industrialization. Under the synergy and linkage of top-level design guidelines and local practices, the pace of digital transformation of the mainland's manufacturing industry has been accelerating and remarkable results have been achieved. According to data disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of December 2023, the mainland has cultivated 421 national-level demonstration factories, more than 10,000 provincial-level digital workshops and smart factories, and the national public service platform for the integration of industrialization and industrialization serves 183,000 industrial enterprises, with the penetration rate of digital R&D and design tools reaching 79.6% and the numerical control rate of key processes reaching 62.2%.
5. TV panel| According to TrendForce data, the average price of 65-inch TV panels continued to rise in late April, with the average price of 65-inch TV panels rising at US$176, an increase of US$4 from the previous period and US$5 from the previous month, an increase of 29%. The price of some notebook panels also increased slightly. Since the end of January this year, the price of TV panels has continued to rise.
Comments: SDIC Securities believes that through years of fierce competition, the global LCD production capacity has been mainly concentrated in domestic manufacturers, and the LCD production capacity of Korean enterprises has basically been cleared and invested in the OLED field. If Chinese manufacturers successfully acquire LGD's Guangzhou factory, the market share of Chinese LCD panel manufacturers in 2025 (calculated by production volume) will reach nearly one percentage, and the voice of domestic leading enterprises will be significantly improved. On the demand side, the trend of large-size TV panels is clear, and the shipping area of the industry is growing steadily.
Today's news preview
The launch of the new M5.
Tesla, Ping An of China, Oriental Yuhong, and Flush announced their financial reports.
Eurozone, U.S. manufacturing, services, composite PMI for April.
U.S. new home sales in March.
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