On March 18, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the "Regulatory Measures for the Full Guaranteed Purchase of Renewable Energy", which caused an uproar in the industry.
The power grid is happy,
Energy storage is happy,
Photovoltaic companies are stunned,
The investor cried,
The new 2465 version stands out.
New management methods to reshape project revenue
On April 1, the "Regulatory Measures for the Full Guaranteed Purchase of Renewable Energy Electricity" came into force. Compared with the "full purchase + subsidy" of renewable energy power generation in the old management measures, the new management measures have been changed to "guaranteed purchase + market-oriented transactions".
With the large number of renewable energy access, the national grid has caused an obvious burden, the phenomenon of "curtailment of wind and solar" is not uncommon, and the pressure of "full acquisition" is great, so the state has introduced new regulations on "guaranteed purchase", and part of the renewable energy power generation is no longer included in the grid consumption guarantee, which promotes the installation of photovoltaic capacity and also has a certain impact on the income of investors.
It is worth noting that the "Measures" pointed out that "the guaranteed purchase of electricity refers to the amount of electricity that should be purchased by the relevant members of the electricity market in accordance with the relevant provisions of the national renewable energy consumption guarantee mechanism and the proportion target", and did not clarify the specific value of "guaranteed purchase of electricity", according to Wang Shujuan's interpretation, this amount of electricity is "the amount of electricity within the priority power generation hours of each province is within this range, but this value will be lower and lower, and by 2030, it will be reduced to 0." ”
For PV project investors, the previous 100% acquisition has become only 95%, 70%, or even gradually reduced to 50% and 10%, and the benefits and costs of PV power plant systems need to be recalculated. To ensure project revenue, it is very important to refine the design, selection, construction, operation and maintenance of photovoltaic projects.
Refined selection, the first choice of high-efficiency components
In the construction of photovoltaic power plants, modules are the most important components, and their investment costs account for more than 40% of the total construction cost of photovoltaic power plants.
With the rapid progress of photovoltaic technology, the use of high-efficiency modules to reduce the cost of electricity has become an industry consensus, and high-power and high-efficiency modules have become the first choice for large-scale ground-mounted power stations. Taking 182 modules as an example, the higher the efficiency of a certain area, the lower the BOS cost, the efficiency is increased by 1% (absolute value), and the BOS cost per watt decreases by about 3.8 points.
In terms of PV cell technology iteration, the advantages brought by n-type modules have been repeatedly confirmed on the system side. With the multi-dimensional advantages of better temperature coefficient, lower attenuation, and higher bifaciality, the power generation of n-type modules is significantly increased compared with that of p-type modules. It is estimated that after the application of n-type modules in the power station end, it will have a huge impact on the cost of non-components such as land, brackets, and cables, and will greatly reduce the BOS cost of the entire system side.
At present, the high-power modules on the market mainly include 72 new versions of 2465, 78 versions of 2465 and 66 versions of 2384 (210 square pieces), with different power, conversion efficiency, attenuation characteristics, and temperature characteristics of different modules.
How to choose?
Consider many aspects and anchor the most preferred
In addition to product reliability and power generation performance, module selection also needs to comprehensively consider production, packaging, transportation, installation, and system support.
Taking module transportation as an example, overseas projects use vertical packaging for the maximum utilization of container size, and the risk of vertical packaging at the project site is significantly increased compared with the vertical vertical packaging. The 2465*1134mm components are not easy to tip over when placed on the project site, which is safer under the side vertical packaging method. The selection of this size not only considers the overall optimization of the industrial chain, but also takes into account the convenience of practical application.
In addition, in the current mainstream market, thanks to the advantages of rectangular silicon wafers, the production capacity of many 182mm square wafers has changed to 182*X rectangular silicon wafers. Because it is closer to the circle, it has a higher utilization rate of silicon ingot and a higher wafer yield than 182*210mm silicon wafers. In terms of manufacturing advantages and reliability, the new 2465 version module with 182 rectangular silicon wafers is the best choice.
In addition to the manufacturing and performance side, the advantages of the new 2465 version components are also reflected in the system side.
The cost reduction on the system side points to the best solution
At the end of the power station project, in order to obtain a higher premium space, the core logic of PV module selection must revolve around BOS and LCOE.
Based on the 182 square piece 72 version 2278-585 components, the 2465 new version components have excellent performance on the system side, whether it is a fixed bracket or a tracking bracket solution.
In a 130MW project in China, the fixed bracket is calculated that the 2465 new version and the 210 square 66 version are the best, and the performance of the system end is basically the same. The new version of the 2465 module can reduce the BOS cost by 1.54%, the LCOE cost by 0.7%, the BOS cost reduction is the largest, and the LCOE cost of the 210 square 66 version module is even greater, because it is very close to the BOS of the new version of the 2465 version of the module product, the area is slightly smaller, and the annual land rental cost is slightly lower, so the LCOE is lower.
For overseas PV projects with a capacity of about 120MW, the new 2465 module can reduce the BOS cost by 2.97% and the LCOE cost by 1.84%, which is significantly higher than that of other module versions.
All things considered, the new version of the 2465 has the best system-side performance.
conclusion
The new management measures put forward higher requirements for PV projects, and under the combination of guaranteed acquisitions and market-based transactions, more uncertainty has been added, and how to ensure the profitability of the project is particularly crucial.
Combining high power, high efficiency and high reliability, the 2465*1134mm module with rectangular silicon wafers has the characteristics of low BOS and LCOE. This version of the module can not only meet the needs of large-scale ground power stations, but also adapt to the diversified applications of distributed energy and residential markets, and is a solution with better customer value at a time when cost reduction and efficiency increase are imminent.
Article source: Global Photovoltaics