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Sources: All of the information stated in this article is based on reliable sources, and is detailed at the end of the article
Is the war of financial defense in Asia about to start again? What exactly is the intention of the United States? Fumio Kishida's "kneeling and licking speech" at the White House will eventually be difficult to resist the harvest of capital on Japan, so will there be any change in the average 110,000 yuan saved in everyone's bank?
Many countries in Asia have opened currency protection?
The first quarter of 2024 has just ended, in addition to the situation in Europe and the Middle East, which is of concern to many people, everyone should be most concerned about their own money and the current financial situation in Asia, after all, the price of gold has reached an unprecedented height!
In particular, since April, the yen has fallen frequently, even falling to a lower limit that has not been seen in 34 years since June 1990, and then Asian countries such as South Korea, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia have suffered currency declines one after another, as if Asia will once again start a currency defense war? What is the conspiracy behind this?
In order to prevent a financial collapse, Bank Indonesia directly bought its own currency, and Japan also began to join forces with South Korea in an unprecedented way, but Japan, which only raised interest rates by 0.1.%, is tantamount to a drop in the bucket for international capital, so why is the yen shorted? The answer is very simple, there is the United States, the world's superpower, behind it!
How big is the impact of the JPY shorting on Asian finance?
As we all know, as an island country, Japan does not have much of its own resources, and the main reason why it has become a relatively developed country in Asia is that it relies on the support of the United States and the export of its own goods, and export trade can be said to have become one of the biggest supports for the Japanese economy.
After the beginning of the Brinton Woods system in 1944, the dollar was directly pegged to gold, but when a large number of dollars flowed into the international market, gold could not guarantee that it was equal to the dollar, and the agreement was quickly broken, and then in order to stifle the development of the Soviet Union and China, the United States targeted many Asian countries, including Japan and South Korea.
After the end of World War II, the United States not only exempted Japan from most of its reparations, but even directly helped Japan to rebuild.
Of course, capitalist countries like the United States will not help in vain, especially after the second oil crisis in 1979, the United States fiscal deficit directly increased, in order to improve the balance of payments, the United States directly signed the "Plaza Accord" with Japan, by lowering the exchange rate of the dollar to increase exports, in order to raise the price of the yen, but it is precisely because of this that Japan's domestic bubble economy has intensified, and now Japan has become the largest creditor of US debt.
In addition, although Ken Kobayashi, chairman of the Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan, respectively said that they would intervene in the foreign exchange market together with other countries and raise the yen interest rate by 0.1% in order to improve the decline in the price of the yen, it did not help international capital.
Because since the outbreak of the epidemic in the United States and the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the inflation rate in the United States has gradually increased, in order to improve the situation, the Federal Reserve has not only opened the mode of increasing money printing, but also increased the US interest rate, since the US dollar interest rate hike in 2022, the US dollar interest rate has now exceeded 5%, such a temptation Anyone may want to exchange money for US dollars and save it.
In addition, the Federal Reserve has successively released news that it will pause interest rate cuts, which means that it may raise interest rates again, which is also a "monetary routine" in the United States.
It is precisely because of this that Japan's currency began to depreciate sharply, although the depreciation will increase Japan's exports, but in the end it is the domestic damage, due to the depreciation of the yen, consumers from many countries come to Japan to buy goods, the price of domestic goods will increase significantly, and the purchasing power will gradually decline, so that Japan's domestic inflation rate will increase, and then cause an economic collapse!
According to the latest information, if Japan does not raise interest rates on the yen, the yen may fall again and become a meal for international capital, of course, its Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has not completely put it aside, but perhaps his "kneeling licking" will not meet the ambitions of international capital such as the United States.
On 10 April, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and his wife Yuko Kishida came to the United States for a visit, and their all-English speeches thoroughly let people all over the world see Japan's flattery, especially in order to become more inflammatory, Fumio Kishida went so far as to claim in English that "the biggest challenge facing the world comes from China," and he was even more willing to be a loyal little brother of the United States, so that the world could see that everyone had a "heart of Sima Zhao."
Because the most important reason for Fumio Kishida's visit to the United States this time may be to let the United States directly intervene in the fall of the yen, in addition to him, other Japanese executives are also talking to U.S. financial officials, the purpose of this is very clear, maybe to get the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates quickly or not to sell the yen at will, but from the perspective of the attitude of the United States, this conversation did not meet Fumio Kishida's request.
Although the Federal Reserve has paused interest rate hikes, the exchange rate between international currencies and the US dollar has risen, and the RMB and the US dollar have also begun to rise a little, but is it really necessary to wait until the Fed stops raising interest rates and begins to cut interest rates, so that the situation can be alleviated? Will international capital short the RMB?
Asian currency defense war, the euro falls, how does the yuan respond?
In fact, since the dollar became the world's currency, the United States and other international capital began to attack many countries financially, CCTV news has reported that the Federal Reserve's large amount of money printing has plunged many Latin American countries into a serious debt crisis, and the United States has relied on these high interest rates to let the dollar flow back, and finally got a lot of profits.
Of course, the United States and international capital are also interested in carrying out financial attacks on many Asian countries, such as the short selling of the Thai baht in 2008, which led to the financial crisis in Thailand, and then many countries in Southeast Asia and other countries have been hit by capital, and of course, Hong Kong.
In 1997, the hedge fund began a financial sniper war in Asia, which affected many countries, and then Soros even pointed the finger at the Hong Kong dollar in Hong Kong, thinking about collapsing Hong Kong's stock market, but at that time Hong Kong had returned to China, in order to counter Soros, the relevant departments in the mainland took action, withstood the unprecedented selling pressure of international financiers, and directly bought all of them, you know, there were 82 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves that year, and the mainland had 128 billion foreign exchange reserves, which not only ensured the relevant economic security, but also made Soros and international speculators defeated.
Today's China is no longer the year, far better than then, China is the world's second largest economy, the development of the Belt and Road is many rely on the RMB to settle, the status of the RMB in the international community is gradually improving, although the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will have an impact on the exchange rate, but it will definitely not affect our own wallet.
Judging from the mainland's GDP growth rate in the first quarter, the mainland's economy this year is far more than last year's, with abundant liquidity, and the impact of the international financial market on the domestic market should not be very great.
Although China still has more than 800 billion U.S. debts, second only to Japan, China's economy is very large, and all industries are system-wide, not controlled by foreign capital at will, coupled with 3 trillion foreign exchange reserves and huge industrial security, the economy must not be easy to collapse.
Now the debt of the United States has reached 34 trillion US dollars, this is the consequence of their continuous interest rate hikes, with high interest rates and printing US dollars to solve some crises, in the end it will definitely cause the United States' own economy to be difficult to get blood, coupled with the instability in Europe and the Middle East, the US Congress passed a bill of 60 billion US dollars in aid to Ukraine, and the financial pressure on the United States may increase again.
In addition, due to the suspension of interest rate cuts by the US dollar, the euro fell by 21.9%, coupled with the fact that the United States has successively controlled Russia's funds abroad, European energy prices are also facing growth, and local finance will definitely be seriously affected, resulting in many high-end enterprises have begun to seek cooperation with China, such as Germany and France and other countries, have begun to bring delegations to China, the stability of the situation must be one of the necessary for the development of a country and enterprises, and the status of the RMB will not be shorted by any capital.
In addition, the way the dollar harvests the yen is still the way the dollar tide grows, for China is completely small, the reason why the yen can be fooled, is because their economy may be constrained by the United States, and now once the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, then Japan, which has a debt of more than 1 trillion US dollars, I am afraid that many companies will face the risk of bankruptcy, coupled with the flattery of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, it is estimated that the domestic inflation rate will increase once, and the mainland may only need to sit on the mountain and watch the tiger fight!
Reference:
Baidu Encyclopedia - Hong Kong's financial defense
The Japanese yen, plummeting - China Fund News2024-04-17 00:08
The Plaza Accord between Japan and the United States
Not only will the U.S. stock market usher in the earnings season, but the U.S. bond market will also start a "key battle"-Finance Associated Press2024-04-22 09:16
"International Capital is Aggressively Shorting the Yen, How Much Does It Affect?" Shangguan News
Zelensky: The United States must quickly pass aid to Ukraine-reference news2024-03-29 12:58
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