Abstract: From the perspective of the amount of equity land acquisition, the largest land investment from January to March was China Resources Land, followed by Greentown China, China Construction Yipin and Binjiang Group, with the amount of equity expansion and storage of 15.35, 117, 9.69 and 9.69 billion yuan respectively. (Report period: 2024.03.18-2024.04.22)
Opinion Index The top 50 real estate companies have added a total of 17.48 million square meters of land and construction area, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year The top 50 real estate companies in land acquisition from January to March have accumulated a year-on-year increase in land and construction area, but the new additions in a single month in March have declined. The contraction of sales in the first two months of the year has hit the confidence of many real estate companies, so the wait-and-see attitude of enterprises towards the market outlook has deepened, and they are more cautious in investing in land. The main body of land acquisition is still dominated by state-owned enterprises and urban investment companies. During the reporting period, 962 residential land were supplied in first-, second- and third-tier cities, with a planned construction area of 41,620,200 square meters, up 87.12% month-on-month and down 9% year-on-year. There were 160 cases of residential land supply in second-tier cities, with a planned construction area of 11,140,900 square meters, an increase of 79.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 25.14%. During the reporting period, there were 2,539 land transactions in first-, second- and third-tier cities, with a planned construction area of 138,597,100 square meters, up 34.94% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year, a total transaction price of 160.619 billion yuan, up 40% month-on-month, and an average floor price of 1,158.89 yuan/square meter, up 4.5% month-on-month. During the period, 12 residential land transactions were transacted in Hangzhou, with a total transaction value of 22.8 billion yuan, and only 2 transactions were made at a premium. In March last year, 6 of the 10 land cases entered the offline lottery process after the premium was capped. On March 29, the "Regulations on the Renovation of Urban Villages in Guangzhou" was approved and passed, which is the first legislation on the transformation of urban villages in the country. The "Regulations" have a total of 39 articles, which clearly stipulate some hot issues in the transformation of urban villages, such as how to collect collective land, how to determine the compensation standard for expropriation, compensation and resettlement plans for land requisition, the construction of affordable housing, and the social security of villagers. Guangzhou's legislative experience may become a model for other cities to learn.
The top 50 real estate companies have added a total of 17.48 million square meters of land for construction, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year
According to the "Report on New Land Reserves of Real Estate Enterprises from January to April" released by Guandian Index, the top 50 real estate companies added 2.74 million square meters of new land construction area in a single month during the reporting period, a year-on-year decrease of 81.38%.
Data source: Opinion index collation: From January to March, the top 50 real estate companies added 17,481,200 square meters of new land construction, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year. Among them, Shijiazhuang State Holdings, China Resources Land, and China Railway Construction added full-caliber land reserves of 1.6595 million, 1.071 million and 908,000 square meters respectively, which are in a leading position. From the perspective of the amount of equity land acquisition, the largest land investment from January to March was China Resources Land, followed by Greentown China, China Construction Yipin and Binjiang Group, with equity expansion and reserves of 15.35, 117, 9.69 and 9.66 billion yuan respectively.
The cumulative land acquisition area of the top 50 real estate companies from January to March increased year-on-year, but the new additions in a single month in March decreased a lot. The opinion index believes that the contraction in sales in the first two months of the year has hit the confidence of many real estate companies, so the wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook has deepened, and investment and land acquisition are more cautious. On the whole, the main body of land acquisition is still dominated by state-owned enterprises and urban investment companies. In addition, some commercial land or affordable rental housing land has attracted non-real estate companies to acquire land, such as Tencent's 6.42 billion yuan acquisition of a comprehensive land at the northern end of Xueyuan Road in Beijing's Haidian District, and a land plot in Yuyao, Ningbo, which was won by natural persons.
The supply of residential land increased month-on-month, and the second-tier cities increased by 80% month-on-month
According to the data of first-, second- and third-tier cities monitored by the opinion index, the number of land supply cases was 5,236 during the reporting period, the planned construction area of the supplied land was 216,624,900 square meters, an increase of 50% month-on-month and 2% year-on-year, and the starting floor price of the supplied land was 956 yuan/square meter, an increase of 18.62% month-on-month and 5.6% year-on-year.
Data source: Wind, Guandian Index sorted out residential land, during the reporting period, there were 962 cases of residential land supply in first-, second- and third-tier cities, with a planned construction area of 41.6202 million square meters, an increase of 87.12% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 9%, and the starting floor price of land supply was 3,996 yuan/square meter, an increase of 1.5% month-on-month and 7.7% year-on-year.
Data source: Wind, opinion index collation by city energy level, at the Beijing Tongzhou commercial residential land promotion conference, Beijing urban sub-center focused on the launch of 6 commercial residential land, with a total scale of 810,000 square meters. The project includes the Liyuan Qiangqiang Home Furnishing Project plot, the 6005 plot of the 0605 block, the 6019 plot of the 0305 block, the 6007 plot of the 0602 block, the north plot of No. 2 of Songzhuang District and the D residential plot of Taihu Phase II. The 6 commercial residential lands are all located in the core bearing area and key functional areas of the sub-center, with mature industrial layout and convenient transportation. As of the end of March, Shanghai listed 5 land plots, with a total area of 194,900 square meters and a total starting price of 11.23 billion yuan. On April 8, Shanghai announced its 2024 state-owned construction land supply plan, totaling 3,971 hectares. Among them, residential land accounted for the highest proportion, reaching 856 hectares, accounting for 22%. It is worth noting that the supply of residential land in 2024 will decrease for the second consecutive year, by 4.9% from 2023 (900 hectares in 2023) and by 7.7% from 2022 (927 hectares in 2022). The planned supply of commercial residential land was 440 hectares, down 12.9% year-on-year (505 hectares in 2023) and 15.7% lower than in 2022 (522 hectares in 2022). As of April 10, Guangzhou has listed 5 land plots for sale, with a total area of 188,800 square meters and a total starting price of 11.2 billion yuan, including Baiyun District, Huadu District and Tianhe District in the central urban area, located in the Financial City, Design Capital, Daguan and other areas. However, the transfer of CB0602003 plots north of Industrial Avenue and west of Guangqing Expressway in Huadu District has been stopped. During the reporting period, there were 160 cases of residential land supply in second-tier cities, with a planned construction area of 11,140,900 square meters, an increase of 79.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 25.14%, and the starting floor price of the supplied land was 8,465 yuan/square meter, an increase of 23.74% month-on-month and 35.35% year-on-year. Hangzhou, Zhengzhou and Wuhan were the main cities for land supply during the reporting period. Among them, Hangzhou listed 5 residential land, which are located in Yuhang District, Binjiang District, Xiaoshan District and Shangcheng District, with a total transfer area of 364,400 square meters and a total starting price of 15.386 billion yuan. 2 cases in Zhengzhou and 2 cases in Wuhan. During the reporting period, there were 345 cases of residential land supply in third-tier cities, with a planned construction area of 16,649,800 square meters, up 7.35% month-on-month and down 41% year-on-year, and the starting floor price of supply was 2,262 yuan/square meter, up 13.44% month-on-month and down 16.75% year-on-year. Overall, land supply is still recovering, and the number of supply has declined compared with the same period last year. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the rising supply floor prices, and it is not excluded that various places will sell better quality land plots to attract enterprise investment. This has also increased the enthusiasm of the land market, and the average price has also risen accordingly.
Transactions picked up, and Hangzhou's land auctions became colder
According to the Guandian Index monitoring, during the reporting period, there were 2,539 land transactions in first-, second- and third-tier cities, with a planned construction area of 138,597,100 square meters, up 34.94% month-on-month and 12.9% year-on-year, a total transaction price of 160.619 billion yuan, up 40% month-on-month and 16.63% year-on-year, and an average floor price of 1,158.89 yuan/square meter, up 4.5% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year.
Data source: Wind, Guandian Index sorted out residential land, 347 residential land transactions in first-, second- and third-tier cities, with a planned construction area of 18,555,500 square meters, up 52.34% month-on-month and down 30.71% year-on-year, the total transaction price was 1,100.37, up 46.9% month-on-month and down 21.54% year-on-year, and the average transaction floor price was 5,930.17 yuan/square meter, down 3.5% month-on-month and up 13.24% year-on-year, and the average premium rate was 6.07% (Up nearly 3 percentage points month-on-month).
In terms of city energy level, a total of 10 residential land transactions were made in first-tier cities. Among them, there were 4 transactions in Beijing and 2 transactions at a capped premium. 5 cases in Shanghai, all land parcels were sold at a premium. There was no residential land transaction in Shenzhen, and 1 agreement transfer in Guangzhou. The four parcels of land in Beijing were located in Changping District, Huairou District and Shunyi District, and were won by Shijiazhuang Genesis Beijing Construction Engineering, Beijing Science City Yanqi Real Estate and Beijing Xiangye Real Estate respectively, with a total transaction price of about 7 billion yuan. 5 land parcels were transacted in Shanghai, with a total transaction price of about 13.411 billion yuan. Among them, the C11-01 and C11-05 plots of Beicai wedge-shaped green space in Pudong New Area were the plots with the highest transaction price in March, and after 33 rounds of bidding, the highest limit price of 4,975.17 million yuan was reached, and after reaching the highest limit of the "high quality" index, it was transferred to the lottery link. In the end, China Railway Real Estate Group and Xiamen International Trade Real Estate jointly won the bid, with a premium rate of 10%, a transaction floor price of 55,674 yuan/square meter, and a real estate linkage price of 92,000 yuan/square meter. Second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, Nanchang and Xiamen were relatively active in residential land transactions during the period. Among them, 12 residential land transactions were made in Hangzhou during the period, with a total transaction value of 22.8 billion yuan, and only 2 land transactions were made at a premium. In March last year, 6 of the 10 land cases entered the offline lottery procedure after the premium was capped, and the land acquisition companies included Binjiang, C&D, Xingyao, etc. In addition, 10 residential land transactions were made in Ningbo during the period, with a total transaction value of 9.53 billion yuan, of which 6 were transacted at a premium. Land acquisition enterprises include Greentown, Bluetown, Ningbo Rail Transit, etc. Among them, the east side of Qianke Road in Yuyao and the south side of Xiangyangting River are land plots for affordable rental housing and retail commerce, which are won by natural persons. The transaction scale of residential land in third-tier cities increased significantly month-on-month, with a gross floor area of about 10.29 million square meters in March. In addition to the 13.1% month-on-month decrease in the transaction floor price, the total transaction price and premium rate both increased month-on-month.
Data source: Opinion Index Collation From the perspective of the nature of the main body of land acquisition, the opinion index statistics on the types of enterprises bidding for residential land in first- and second-tier cities in March found that state-owned enterprises ranked in the forefront of land acquisition this month. In terms of the amount of equity land acquisition, the proportion of state-owned enterprises, urban investment, private enterprises and mixed-ownership real estate enterprises during the reporting period was 41.84%, 31.26%, 21.47% and 5.43% respectively.
The process of urban renewal has been further promoted, and Guangzhou's old reform legislation has been at the forefront
In terms of urban renewal, according to incomplete statistics from the opinion index, as of April 10, 14 urban renewal projects have been dynamically released, mainly based on the progress of planning publicity and other procedures.
On March 29, the Regulations on the Reconstruction of Urban Villages in Guangzhou were approved, which is the first legislation on the transformation of urban villages in China. The "Regulations" have a total of 39 articles, which clearly stipulate some hot issues in the transformation of urban villages, such as how to collect collective land, how to determine the compensation standard for expropriation, compensation and resettlement plans for land requisition, the construction of affordable housing, and the social security of villagers. During the period, the original demolition and reconstruction of the residential building No. 2 of Cluster Street in Fengsheng Community, Xinhua Street, Huadu District, Guangzhou has started the original demolition and reconstruction work, and is now in the construction stage. This is also the first project in Guangzhou to be carried out by residents to raise their own funds to demolish and rebuild dilapidated buildings under the guidance of government departments. In March, residents authorized Guangzhou Huadu Chengtou Xicheng Economic Development Co., Ltd. to renovate themselves by demolition and reconstruction. According to the opinion index, Guangzhou's legislative experience may become a model for other cities to learn. Huadu's self-raised project also has exemplary significance, but this is a special case of transformation, and many old ones do not have enough self-raised funds to support, and more rely on multi-party capital input for transformation. On April 8, 22 urban village renovation projects in Shenzhen were named and promoted, involving urban renewal and transformation pilot projects. Among them, urban renewal projects such as Nanshan Daxin Beisigang Area have been replaced with new development entities, Dapeng Xichong and other three areas are advancing the expropriation and demolition, and the Hengtou-Shuangwu project has completed the confirmation of the implementation of the main work. This year, Beijing plans to promote the transformation of 20 urban villages to improve the quality of urban development, and intends to create a number of demonstration projects in 20 projects. On March 20, Beijing's Haidian District Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee revealed that it plans to renovate 170 old residential areas this year. It is reported that from 2021 to 2023, the district has successively launched the renovation of 157 old residential areas. Qingpu District, Shanghai has issued the "Implementation Plan for the Comprehensive Renovation of Old Residential Areas in Qingpu District". The plan clearly states that 400,000 square meters of area are planned to be renovated in 2024 and 600,000 square meters in 2025. On March 13, the first batch of 20 million yuan of borrowing funds has been successfully put into place. On March 25, the Shanxi Provincial Agricultural Development Bank Branch approved the first batch of special loans for urban village renovation in the province in March, with a scale of 30.6 billion yuan. The move aims to support the construction of 28 urban village renovation projects in Taiyuan City. It can be seen that major cities are actively promoting the related work of urban renewal, which further shows that urban renewal is a major long-term task to improve the quality of urban space.