Boosted by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, the slow progress of the approval of Indonesia's RKAB nickel mine, the impact of the British and US sanctions on Russia's nickel delivery attributes in the LME, and geopolitical conflicts, the Shanghai nickel main continued to rise on Friday night, and continued to rush up at the opening today, brushing a new high of 148,270 yuan/ton since October 26, 2023, up more than 6% intraday, and up 3.09% as of the close of the day, three consecutive gains. London nickel is also red today, brushing a new high of $19,550 / ton since September 21, 2023, weakening in the afternoon, down 1.14% as of 15:35.
Changes in the trend of Shanghai and London nickel:
spot market
Today, the average spot price of SMM 1# electrolytic nickel rose 4.55% from the previous day to 146,950 yuan/ton, rising for three consecutive days. On the cost side, SMM survey on April 19 showed that in terms of nickel sulfate, the price of battery-grade nickel sulfate was flat compared with the previous day, and the inquiry activity picked up. In terms of ferronickel, on the demand side, the current stainless steel price rebounded and revised upward, and the cost inversion was slightly repaired, and the high production schedule was still maintained in April, and there was still demand for raw material procurement.
SMM 1# electrolytic nickel spot price change trend:
Fundamentals
Supply and demand: In terms of nickel ore, last week was the first week after Ramadan in Indonesia, but there is still no further progress in the approval of RKAB nickel mine in Indonesia. The Indonesian government's approval progress for nickel ore has exceeded market expectations, the supply of nickel ore is not clear, and concerns about raw material supply have become the focus of attention in the nickel industry chain recently.
In terms of output, since 2023, domestic refined nickel production has fluctuated and climbed. SMM is expected to increase by 4% month-on-month in April, affected by the continuous rise in nickel prices during March, manufacturers are still enthusiastic about producing electronickel, and with the impact of electronickel expansion progress, the output of some electronickel plants still maintains a climbing state.
In addition, the production of electric nickel production enterprises in March is expected to resume production in April, in March in the smelter affected by the impact of equipment maintenance in the background, the national nickel plate output still maintained a growth trend, the new nickel plate production capacity at the beginning of the year continued to release, the output is still in the climbing stage, the reduction in the month is not as fast as the output growth rate.
Trend of monthly output of domestic refined nickel:
Inventory: Since April, the total social inventory of SMM pure nickel in different regions has shown a fluctuating trend, and the inventory on April 19 was 556 tons compared with the previous week (April 12). SMM survey shows that downstream procurement sentiment remains at a low level, and the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is poor. Last week's depot was mainly affected by the continued expansion of the price difference between domestic and foreign disks and the increase in domestic nickel plate exports.
Since April, LME nickel inventories have been fluctuating to the warehouse, with 1,758 tons of inventories on April 19 compared with the previous week (April 12), mainly for warehouses in Asia.
Changes in the domestic pure nickel general treasury and LME nickel inventories by region:
Demand side: SMM survey shows that it is expected that the downstream of alloy special steel in the second quarter will usher in the peak season of the industry, and the subsequent demand for nickel plate may have some support, and in the case of terminal profits, the downstream will accept nickel prices or increase under the influence of raw material demand.
SMM outlook
On the whole, the macro situation has weakened the US dollar in recent days, and the domestic economic data is good, which is good for commodity prices. The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tightened, the future demand is optimistic, and the pure nickel inventory was destocked last week. SMM expects nickel prices to be strong in the short term.