After the visits of the US Treasury Secretary and the German Chancellor to China, an unexpected country began to negotiate relations with China. That country is Canada. According to AFP, Canada's deputy foreign minister is expected to visit Beijing in the near future to seek a thaw in China-Canada relations and pave the way for the Canadian foreign minister's further visit to China.
It is unexpected because Canada has been one of the most radical anti-China countries in the "circle of friends" of the United States in the past few years, and has the least regard for consequences. The initial bitterness between China and Canada can be traced back to the Meng Wanzhou case.
Lu Kang, then director of the Department of American and Pacific Affairs of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, revealed that before the United States concocted this vicious incident, it had approached dozens of countries back and forth, trying to force them to arrest Meng Wanzhou and help Washington create a "chilling effect." As a result, except for Canada, no country agreed.
Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Canada
Later, Ms. Meng Wanzhou was illegally detained in Canada, which sparked a years-long diplomatic dispute between China and the United States and between China and Canada. In the end, the United States was forced to return Meng Wanzhou, but Sino-Canadian relations can never go back. After the Meng Wanzhou incident, Canada's Conservative Party began to hype up the so-called "election rigging" by China.
This incident is a typical case of "internal disease and external treatment" in Western countries. The troublesome Conservative Party was once the number one party in Canada, but the current ruling party, Trudeau's Liberal Party, won only 30 of the more than 300 seats in parliament 10 years ago.
However, in recent years, due to the Conservative Party's absurd policy propositions from time to time, the Liberal Party has directly risen to become the largest party in Canada at the speed of a rocket. In 2015, the Liberal Party won 189 seats, and in 2021 it dropped slightly but also won 158 seats. The Canadian Conservative Party lost several elections, and was unwilling to admit that the direction of development was wrong, so it began to say that Trudeau was "through China".
Trudeau
There are many Chinese immigrants in Canada, and under the investigation of the conservatives "shooting arrows first and then drawing targets", this nonsense has been making trouble in Canada for several years. At the beginning of April this year, Trudeau also attended the hearing and made a long report explaining that he did not "communicate with China". It can also be seen from this incident that the current trend in Canada is still anti-Huawei mainstream.
Under such circumstances, Canada has suddenly released rumors that it wants to ease relations with China, and there must be ghosts among them. A simple guess is that Canada's visit to China to seek a relaxation of Sino-Canadian relations is false, and it is true to put on a posture to show the United States that it wants to increase its "united front value."
As a result of Canada's early "severance of kindness" with China, not only was it thrown into the cold by China, but it also lost its value in being co-opted by the United States. In recent years, the United States has pulled up a new "circle of friends" to deal with China in the Asia-Pacific region, and none of them have played with Canada.
Mika
At the end of last year, the United States pulled 14 countries in the Pacific Rim to sign a "Supply Chain Resilience Agreement", hyping up the "de-Chinaization" of the global supply chain, India, Vietnam, and Australia were all pulled into the group, but Canada was left aside. As early as 2022, Canada actively courted the United States, hoping to join the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework", but Biden has been "unable to read back".
Not only economically, but also militarily Canada faces the same dilemma. The several small circles created by the United States in the Indo-Pacific, from Aukus to the framework of the Quadrilateral Talks, to the triangle of the United States, Japan, South Korea, and the United States, Japan and the Philippines, do not have the shadow of Canada. This "poor brother in the north" was immediately thrown aside after being thoroughly exploited by Washington in anti-China.
To put it bluntly, in the eyes of the United States, when Canada is engaged in military containment of China, Canada is beyond the reach of the whip and cannot come in handy; when it is engaged in economic containment of China, Canada, the United States, and Australia have many overlapping ecological niches in the industrial chain, so there is no need to bring in and add a competitor to itself.
U.S. and Mexico
What makes Canada even more uncomfortable is that when the United States does not play with him, Mexico, another important market for him in the Americas, also faces fierce competition from China. According to data released by Mexico, in the first eight months of 2023, the total amount of cars exported from China to Mexico increased by more than 60% compared to the same period in 2022, and a large part of them were resold to the North American market.
At the same time, China has accelerated the establishment of car factories in Mexico, which have severely squeezed the market share of Canadian automakers in Mexico. In November, Flavio Volpe, head of the Canadian Auto Parts Manufacturers Association, publicly warned the Trudeau government that it must take action to "protect our industry" from Chinese investors.
To sum up, Canada's exit is that new friends have not been made, and old friends have been completely offended and lost. In 2025, Canada is about to face a new round of general elections, and Trudeau will certainly want to change that.
From the end of March to the beginning of April this year, several Canadian media began to frequently advocate that Canada should strive to join the so-called "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" and return to the small circle of the United States. It is not difficult to see that the Trudeau government is very keen to make some achievements in this area this year.
Against this backdrop, Canada's sudden announcement that it would "thaw" relations with China was largely done for the United States. This means that if the United States continues to isolate Canada from Washington's circle of friends, then Canada will have to consider "investing".
Moreover, from Germany and France to Australia, they have been actively dealing with China recently, and even the United States itself has sent senior officials to visit Beijing one after another, and it will not be abrupt for Canada to mix in and brush up its presence. However, it is too late to think of increasing the "value of the united front" now.
Spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry
China will not turn away a country like Canada, but it is another matter to ask for cooperation. The current Trudeau government really has no capital in its hands to let China cooperate in staging this drama for the Americans. On the contrary, it may be more beneficial for us to keep Canada as a "negative example" and set an example for countries that now feel that they can rely on the United States and compete with China.
On the occasion of Canada's visit to China, the Chinese ambassador to Canada issued a farewell letter announcing his departure. According to the Canadian side, Ambassador Cong Peiwu has left his post and returned to China.
Next, how to develop Sino-Canadian relations depends on how much sincerity the Canadian side can show. If Trudeau is determined to abandon the dark and turn to the light and seriously bring over some cooperation projects negotiated with China, then there is still room for cooperation between China and Canada; if Trudeau is still full of only thinking about putting on a show and visiting China for the sake of visiting China, then China will not easily carry this sedan chair for Canada.
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