Today, global stock markets fell sharply, but gold and crude oil rose sharply,
Major Israeli air strikes on 7 cities in Iran, striking local nuclear facilities,
There is a high probability of counterattacking, so no, the market has overdrawn the stock market military spending in advance.
Because of the heavy position in U.S. stocks, I also contributed a lot to this wave, with a floating loss of 40W in April.
There are still 3 points left in the annual profit, and it has already underperformed the all-weather...
Many people are wondering whether it is time to hurry up and run after the US stock market has been in the red for 5 consecutive years.
In fact, for the global stock market, although the overall trend is upward,
But this kind of pullback of about 5%, just like the rain on a sunny day, should not be too common.
Those who say that this time is different, it is the stagflation cycle of the 70-80s, or the Asian financial crisis in the 98 years,
Of course, if you keep guessing, you will always guess it a few times
....
Admittedly, global market valuations can only be said to be reasonable at the moment, and most countries are only at the historical median line.
It's not cheap, but it's far from panicking.
Look at Lao Ba recently, the treasure knife is not old, and he has raised hundreds of billions of Japanese bonds, and he is ready to invest some more.
In general, I firmly believe that the global AI revolution has the potential to improve social efficiency.
Therefore, I chose to continue to stabilize overseas assets, stay calm, and look for opportunities to buy gradually.
………
In addition, today's dividend index has hit an all-time high.
In February, when a big V chased dividends, as a dark light in the industry, he has always bought what to fall.
But at that time, I bought the bonus, I guess it may have kicked the steel plate, and it turned out to be true.
Then some people will ask, the dividend is so stable, I don't want to toss, let's get the bonus, I'm tired.
Listen to my analysis.
The following is the ranking of the information ratios (similar to the Sharpe ratio, return, risk, and cost performance) of the major indices in the past ten years.
In the past decade, the highest-ranking information ratios, not to be exhaustive, are:
Leading Bonus 50, Bonus Quality, Consumption Dividend, Nasdaq 100, Low Wave Dividend.
Most of the top ones are rounded up by bonus strategies.
Then the question is, it seems that the dividend risk-return ratio is very good, is it suitable to buy dividends now?
Well, then I called up these few:
S&P 500 High Dividend Low Volatility ETF (SPYD);
Buyer, 高股息收益Edb(Vima);
iShares Select Dividend ETF（DVY）精选红利ETF；
Obviously, the overseas high-dividend strategy is less than the strongest broad-based S&P 500.
Over the past decade, these three outperformances have been a lot lower than the S&P 500.
As a high-efficiency market, the general strategy factors of the U.S. stock market are basically useless.
.........
Then I compared CSI Dividend and Vanguard High Dividend ETF-VYM, as shown in the figure:
Since 2015, CSI's dividend has not only been stronger than 300, but even stronger than overseas high dividends.
The above analysis tells us that buying dividends in a non-efficient market like A-shares may be a good choice in the long run.
But the question is, is it cost-effective to buy dividends now?
First of all, just look at the dividend yield quantile and turnover rate, the dividend may not have reached the bubble stage.
Whether it is the dividend position of CSI Dividend or the turnover rate, it seems that it has not entered a bubble period.
But compared with U.S. stocks, it is true that the dividends of A-shares have been a bit overcharged in recent years.
If we look at overseas DOUR Vanguard High Dividend ETFs and dividend ETFs from the beginning of 20 years to the present,
It will be found that the excess return of the domestic CSI dividend ETF during the period is very outrageous.
From the beginning of 2020 to April 18, 2024, the excess return of CSI Dividend ETF is 57% compared to Vanguard High Dividend ETF...
In fact, in the long run, the trend of these two is very different, but now there is a very big differentiation.
It's not a good thing to get out of the divergence with U.S. stocks.
.........
So I also thought about it,
Why is the domestic CSI dividend so much stronger than overseas in recent years?
Later, it was found that the essence of stronger domestic dividends is actually because of its industry.
At present, the heaviest positions in CSI dividends are actually coal, steel, petrochemical (cyclical), and banking (financial).
That is, pro-cyclical indices.
Different from overseas, the constituent stocks of overseas dividend indexes are more financial real estate, as well as traditional consumer and retail companies.
The cyclical index is the strongest index in the last three years, and there is no one.
Take our CSI coal and compare it with S&P Oil & Gas, which has skyrocketed by nearly 200% in the past four years.
Now because of high inflation, it has ushered in a typical commodity bull market.
If commodities can still strengthen, then these industries may still be able to carry dividends.
But it's been going on for more than three years, and if inflationary pressures come down and the Fed is cutting interest rates, the cycle could also be taken into the ditch.
As the so-called feng shui rotates, will the inflection point of cyclical stocks be too far?
Now it's time to turn the dividends calmly and think about it.
You've been on the track for four years, and you haven't bought a cycle.
Now to buy the cycle, the fish body must be gone, how much the fish tail can eat, it depends on the creation...
I think I really want to match the bonus,
Just do a good job of the proportional framework of growth and cycle, but don't be beaten to tears, just turn around and join.