Yangtze River Business Daily News ● Yangtze River Business Daily reporter Xu Jia
The surging gold price has become the hottest topic in 2024.
As of April 20, Beijing time, COMEX gold and London gold closed at $2404.71 / ounce and $2390.42 / ounce respectively, up 16.07% and 15.7% respectively during the year. Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was quoted at 568.7 yuan/gram, up 87 yuan/gram this year, or 18%.
Due to gold's strong safe-haven properties, gold prices continued to rise driven by multiple factors such as high global inflation, monetary policy contraction, and geopolitical risks. With the rise in gold prices, the performance of a number of A-share listed gold companies is promising, and gold concept stocks have also risen sharply.
Straight Flush data shows that as of the close of April 19, the Straight Flush Gold Concept (885530) index was reported at 2119.57 points, up 1.16% on the day, up nearly 47% from the low of 1442.45 points on February 6, and more than two months.
The Yangtze River Business Daily reporter combed and found that benefiting from the rise in gold prices and the rise in consumption, Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, Yintai Gold, Chaohongji and many other A-share listed companies performed well. At the same time, there are also gold companies such as Mengjinyuan, Chow Tai Sheng, and Laopu Gold to hit the Hong Kong stock IPO while it is hot.
The gold price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 87 yuan per gram during the year
In 2023, due to the combined impact of a series of factors such as the continuous decline in global inflation, the gradual shift of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the unexpected outbreak of banking crises in the United States and Europe, and the frequent occurrence of geopolitical risk events, gold prices at home and abroad will hit record highs, and gold's role as a hedge and hedge will be further enhanced, and its attractiveness in the allocation of large types of assets will continue to increase.
According to the data, in 2023, the international spot gold price will reach a maximum of US$2,146 per ounce, a minimum of US$1,804 per ounce, and a maximum volatility of US$342 per ounce, and close at US$2,062 per ounce at the end of the year, up about 13% from the closing price at the end of the previous year.
The trend of domestic gold prices is stronger than that of international gold. In 2023, the Shanghai Gold Exchange Au (T+D) contract will have a high of 485 yuan/gram and a minimum of 408.08 yuan/gram, and close at 479.91 yuan/gram at the end of the year, up about 17% from the closing price of 409.76 yuan/gram at the end of the previous year.
Since 2024, gold prices have continued to rise, especially in the past two months. Among them, on April 12, COMEX gold and London gold rushed to 2412.8 US dollars / ounce and 2395.37 US dollars / ounce intraday high, both of which refreshed records again. On the same day, the highest price of the Au99.99 contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange reached 566.9 yuan/gram, hitting a new record high.
As of April 20, Beijing time, COMEX gold and London gold closed at $2404.71 / ounce and $2390.42 / ounce respectively, up 16.07% and 15.7% respectively during the year. Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was quoted at 568.7 yuan/gram, up 87 yuan/gram this year, or 18%.
According to Jing Danyang analysis of Hualong Securities, driven by the rising global risk aversion sentiment and the central bank's purchase demand, gold prices hit a record high, and continued to deviate from the trend of U.S. interest rates. It is judged that there may be room for a pullback in gold prices in the short term, but under the premise that there are no major changes in the above factors, long-term gold prices may still be "easy to rise and difficult to fall".
Wanlian Securities investment consultant Qu Fang to the Yangtze River Business Daily reporter analysis, the main reasons for the rise in gold prices mainly include the United States interest rate cut expectations to promote the weakening of the dollar, thereby driving gold strength, and the international economic environment has pushed up the willingness of safe-haven funds to pursue gold.
The stock price and performance of A-share gold industry chain companies are soaring
As a hard currency, Chinese consumers' love for gold has only increased.
Statistics from the China Gold Association show that the national gold consumption in 2023 will be 1,089.69 tons, an increase of 8.78% compared to the same period in 2022. Among them, 706.48 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year increase of 7.97%, and 299.60 tons of gold bars and coins, a year-on-year increase of 15.70%.
Benefiting from the rise in gold prices and the rise in consumption, a number of A-share listed companies have performed well from upstream gold exploration, mining and smelting to downstream gold jewelry sales.
Among the upstream mining enterprises, Zijin Mining's operating income and net profit in 2023 will be 293.403 billion yuan and 21.119 billion yuan, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 8.54% and 5.38%. Among them, the operating income of mining gold was 27.091 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.84%.
Shandong Gold expects to achieve 650 million to 750 million yuan in the first quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 48.11% to 70.9%. Yintai Gold, which was acquired by Shandong Gold, is expected to make a net profit of 480 million to 520 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 61.94% to 75.43%. Hunan Gold, a regional gold mining leader, expects a net profit of 149 million to 170 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 40% to 60%.
Among the downstream gold jewelry companies, Chaohongji expects a net profit of 320 million to 400 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 60.7% to 100.88%. Lao Fengxiang will achieve operating income of 71.436 billion yuan and net profit of 2.214 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.37% and 30.23%.
It is worth mentioning that a large number of gold companies have also rushed to hit the capital market.
After failing to submit its application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2023, Mengjinyuan Gold & Jewellery Group Co., Ltd. submitted its listing application to the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange again in early April. Gold jewelry brands such as Laopu Gold and Liuliufu are also impacting Hong Kong stock IPOs.
On the other hand, the boom in gold consumption has had an impact on diamond and other inlaid jewelry companies.
According to the annual report released by Laishen Tongling, which focuses on diamonds, jadeite and other jewelry, the company will achieve operating income of 733 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 19.69%, and a net profit of -76.1981 million yuan, with a widening loss.
In the secondary market, with the strong rise in gold prices, the popularity of A-share gold concept stocks is also high.
Straight Flush data shows that as of the close of April 19, the Straight Flush Gold Concept (885530) Index was reported at 2119.57 points, up 1.16% on the day, up nearly 47% from the low of 1442.45 points on February 6, and more than two months. Among them, on April 12, the index reached a maximum of 2298.54 points.
Among the 72 related listed companies with the A-share gold concept, as of the close of trading on April 19, North Copper, China Molybdenum, and Shenzhen China A all rose by more than 70% during the year. Among the listed companies with gold mining as their main business, Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, CICC Gold and other companies also rose by more than 30% during the year.
However, investment is risky and investors need to be vigilant. Hong Shibin, an industry observer, told the Yangtze River Business Daily reporter that the concept of A-share gold is very popular, and investors should treat it rationally. Although gold is an important safe-haven tool, investors should remain calm and not blindly follow the herd when the market is volatile.
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