Marcos has just returned from a visit to the United States and signed a "trilateral trade agreement between the United States, Japan, and the Philippines." It is said that the United States and Japan will provide $100 billion of investment to the Philippines within 5 to 10 years.
On April 15, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos claimed under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty that "the Philippine military has been attacked and killed in the South China Sea, and the U.S. military will intervene." He also added that even if the Philippine military is killed in an attack on a merchant ship or coast guard vessel, it will trigger the treaty.
Wait, is this tantamount to drawing a "red line" for China in the South China Sea? The Marcos Jr. government really doesn't know how many pounds and taels it has.
The Philippines is now like a mischievous kid crying and threatening to beat him after being beaten: Don't leave after school, I'll call Dad to beat you. After all, he is also a dignified president of a country, and Marcos Jr.'s realm and level in external confrontation affairs are really not very high.
What is ridiculous is that shortly after the Philippine president's remarks, the US Secretary of Defense resumed the communication mechanism between the two militaries with China. This obviously shows that the United States is very afraid of "a military conflict with China."
Recalling the seemingly "huge" joint maritime exercise between the United States, the Philippines, Japan, and Australia that ended not long ago, we can easily see that the United States' attitude toward the Philippines on the South China Sea issue is somewhat perfunctory.
The four countries participating in the exercise sent only five warships in total, and the ships sent by the United States are called "small wrecked ships" within their own navy, which are not suitable for high-intensity naval battles at all. In front of the PLA Navy, these ships appeared to be no threat. The White House and the Pentagon sending such ships to participate in joint military exercises in the South China Sea are really just bluffing. I am afraid that only the "limited" Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. thinks that his goal has been achieved......
This time, the Philippine president wants to unilaterally activate the "US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty", as if he is a pawn of the United States and himself is a chess player. Marcos should probably ask Zelensky how he feels right now. However, I believe that the United States will fight with China to the last Filipino! Just as the United States will fight with Russia to the last Ukrainian, we must believe in the Americans' faith and pursuit of freedom!
The United States has signed mutual defense treaties with a number of countries, including NATO members. Many countries that have signed similar treaties, especially NATO members, have a lot of trust in this mechanism and consider it to be very effective. Thus, this unproven mutual defense mechanism is actually like the "emperor's new clothes", where they agree that the United States is dressed in fancy clothes, while other countries believe that the United States is practically naked.
It's just that there is an endless loop, even if the United States is revealed to be wearing the emperor's new clothes, no one is willing to open this layer of window paper for the time being, and other countries do not have this ability, so the farce of the United States can continue to be staged. But once something does happen, what will the United States do to save its image? They can only immediately declare that the mutual defense treaty is inapplicable, and will not send troops to participate, but will provide sufficient assistance to the signatory countries to ensure that the signatories can hold out until the last moment.
It is worth mentioning that most of this aid needs to be purchased by the signatory countries, and if there is not enough money, assets can be pledged, and the United States provides a package of services such as mortgages, loans, and supplies.
The United States is now fooling the Philippines and China into going to war, so that it can reap the benefits of the fisherman and copy the model of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with the ultimate goal of reaping the wealth of East Asia. The United States really does not dare to make a move with China now, just like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Because the U.S. military is actually a foreign power, the U.S. military's combat strength is all in advanced weapons, and the ability of its soldiers is really weakened, so you see that the United States only dares to fight a war in which the big bully the small, and does not dare to go to war with slightly stronger countries (Iran, North Korea, Cuba) at all.
Overall, it is foreseeable that the United States and the Philippines will continue to play in the South China Sea for some time to come, but this will not make China retreat in the slightest. Neither the Philippines nor the United States, which supports it, is in a position to draw so-called "red lines" in front of China. On the contrary, the two countries should recognize the reality and avoid further escalation of tensions over the South China Sea. If they rashly challenge China's bottom line, the consequences could be overwhelming. As I have always emphasized, the Philippines is now like a porcelain toucher, that is, the Americans want to use this to blackmail our substitute ghosts, and in the end they are not even cannon fodder, and no one cares about the life or death of this country.