On Friday, local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. At the close, the Dow rose 0.56%, the Nasdaq fell 2.05%, and the S&P 500 fell 0.88%.
The Federal Reserve released its semi-annual financial stability report, which showed that persistent inflation is seen as the number one risk to financial stability, and hedge fund leverage rose to its highest level since at least 2013.
Popular tech stocks were broadly down. Supermicro Computer fell more than 23%, Nvidia, Netflix fell more than 9%, Micron Technology, Broadcom, Meta fell more than 4%, ASML, TSMC fell more than 3%, Eli Lilly, Amazon, Texas Instruments, Intel, Qualcomm fell more than 2%, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Google fell more than 1%, and Cisco rose slightly.
U.S. stocks TSMC continued to decline. TSMC President Wei Zhejia released a red flag at the online legal person briefing, he said that the growth rate of the semiconductor industry excluding memory in 2024 will be lowered to 10% (previously expected to exceed 10%), and the growth rate of the foundry industry will be lowered to 15%-17% (previously expected to be 20%).
Persistent inflation seen as the number one risk to financial stability, the Nasdaq fell more than 2%
On Friday, local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes were mixed. At the close, the Dow rose 211.02 points, or 0.56%, to 37,986.40, the Nasdaq fell 319.49 points, or 2.05%, to 15,282.01, and the S&P 500 lost 43.89 points, or 0.88%, to 4,976.23.
The Federal Reserve released its semi-annual financial stability report (hereinafter referred to as the report) on Friday local time, which showed that persistent inflation is seen as the number one risk to financial stability, and hedge fund leverage rose to the highest level since at least 2013.
An overview of the report shows that:
About asset valuation. Equity price-to-earnings ratios have moved to the upper end of the historical distribution, corporate bond spreads have fallen below historical averages, residential real estate prices remain elevated relative to fundamentals, and commercial real estate prices have fallen due to deteriorating fundamentals.
About business and home loans. The ratio of total private debt to gross domestic product (GDP) has fallen further to near historical averages, corporate debt-to-GDP ratios remain high, but corporate debt servicing remains strong as the real value of corporate debt continues to decline due to reduced risk debt issuance, and household debt is at a moderate level relative to GDP and concentrated among high-quality borrowers.
On leverage in the financial sector. The banking system remains robust and resilient, with risk-to-risk capital ratios well above regulatory requirements, some fixed-rate assets held on the balance sheets of some banks continue to face large fair value losses, the leverage of the largest hedge funds has risen at already high levels, and broker-dealer leverage remains near historic lows.
About asset risk. Most domestic banks remain highly liquid and stable, however, concerns about uninsured deposits and other factors continue to weigh on some banks to raise funds, money market funds, some other mutual funds and stablecoins remain structurally vulnerable, and life insurance companies continue to hold large amounts of illiquid and risky assets.
The Nasdaq extended its record decline this week, falling more than 5.5% this week, the biggest weekly decline since 2022. More than half of the "Big Seven" of U.S. tech stocks are set to report results next week, leaving investors wondering whether these companies will be able to live up to the high expectations set by people for artificial intelligence.
Quincy Crosby, chief global strategist at LPLFinancial, said: "Investors are expecting not only strong results but also strong guidance, and any disappointment reported by big tech companies could push the market further into oversold territory. ”
The S&P 500 fell for the sixth day in a row and fell below 5,000 points, the longest losing streak since October 2022. "Geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, interest rates and the Federal Reserve are putting pressure on the market, driving a rapid and dramatic shift in the market landscape and investor attitudes," said Mark Hackett of Nationwide. ”
Bank of America strategists said investors are pulling money from the stock market due to the strong U.S. economy and rising inflation, and they are worried that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer.
The CBOE Volatility Index VIX, also known as the Investor Fear Index, topped 20 intraday for the first time since October 2023, surging to 21.36 in early trading before retreating.
Reports of escalating tensions in the Middle East, coupled with declining investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will pivot to rate cuts in the coming months, have led to a surge in volatility. With the U.S. stock market hitting new all-time highs at the start of the year, the VIX has been at a low level for several months. Since the beginning of April, the VIX index has been rising. It is expected to close above the 200-day moving average for 12 consecutive sessions, the longest since October 2022.
Nvidia plummeted! TSMC sent a danger signal
（来源/Bloomberg）
Tech stocks collapsed and Nvidia plummeted
Popular tech stocks were broadly down. Supermicro Computer fell more than 23%, Nvidia, Netflix fell more than 9%, Micron Technology, Broadcom, Meta fell more than 4%, ASML, TSMC fell more than 3%, Eli Lilly, Amazon, Texas Instruments, Intel, Qualcomm fell more than 2%, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Google fell more than 1%, and Cisco rose slightly.
Netflix fell 9.09%. Despite a strong first quarter of 2024, Netflix's shares fell as much as 9% on Friday local time, its biggest one-day drop in nine months, due to its weak expectations for future revenue growth and plans to stop announcing quarterly subscriber counts from 2025. Paolo Pescato, founder and analyst at PPForesight, said in an email: "The move to disclose quarterly subscriptions from next year will not go well. ”
According to Netflix, the growth in subscribers is largely due to its crackdown on account sharing, with the Netflix team estimating that more than 100 million people are using other people's accounts for free. In the first quarter, Netflix added 9.33 million new customers, almost double what analysts had predicted. In addition, Netflix also plans to launch more ad-supported versions of the service and live programming to attract more cost-conscious users. About 40% of new customers opted for its ad serving version. Although Netflix's advertising business is still small compared to online video giants such as YouTube, its growth prospects are still bullish.
Tesla fell 1.92%. Tesla recently recalled 3,878 Cybertruck pickups to fix pedals that could have fallen off and caused the vehicle to accelerate unexpectedly. The recall also reveals for the first time the number of sales of the model since the first deliveries in November last year, after Tesla had not yet announced deliveries of the model in its quarterly production and delivery report. Tesla has received two customer complaints filed over the issue. Tesla says that when too much force is applied to the Cybertruck's accelerator pedal, the pedal can come off and get stuck in the interior. Tesla will fix these accelerator pedals for free. Musk expects it will take 12 to 18 months for Tesla to mass-produce the stainless steel-covered Cybertruck, with it expected to reach a production rate of 250,000 units per year sometime next year.
Supermicro Computer plunged 23.14%. The company, with a market capitalization of nearly 400 billion yuan, posted its biggest one-day drop since August 2023, and its share price was also at its lowest level since February. Supermicro, the most popular company in artificial intelligence, has lost more than a third of its share price since its peak in March, but is still up about 160% this year. After Supermicro announced on April 19 local time that it would release its third-quarter results on April 30, the stock price began to fall.
Wells Fargo said that Supermicrocomputer did not give a positive pre-data statement, which was seen as bad news by the market, and that Supermicrocomputer did not pre-report important AI data points. "There seems to be a perception that AI will grow forever," the analyst noted. But today's drastic closing move has already taken place. ”
Google fell 1.23%. Google announced on April 19 local time that it would remove the policy that requires U.S. suppliers and human resources companies to pay their employees a minimum wage of at least $15 per hour and provide health insurance and other benefits. The policy has been in place since 2019, and the revocation could allow the tech giant to avoid negotiations with unions. A Google spokesperson said the move was to comply with changes in labor regulations regarding temporary workers in the U.S. and around the world, emphasizing that Google has never directly hired employees from suppliers. In addition, Google will restrict access to internal systems for temporary workers and vendors. Nevertheless, Google implements a Supplier Code of Conduct, which requires suppliers and staffing companies to provide a safe working environment and comply with existing legal obligations.
Apple fell 1.22%. Apple's proposal to open up its NFC (Near Field Communication) mobile payment system will be approved by the European Union's antitrust regulator next month, according to Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter. The move is intended to address a four-year-long investigation and avoid being convicted of non-compliance and potentially facing hefty fines. In January, Apple proposed to allow competitors to access its NFC for free on iPhones, iPads and other devices without going through Apple Pay or Apple Wallet, while providing additional features such as a default payment app, access to authentication features such as FaceID, and a dispute resolution mechanism. The offer is expected to be accepted as soon as May, although the exact timing is subject to change due to technical details.
On April 19, Beijing time, the share price of TSMC, the "king of stocks" in Taiwan, China, plummeted by more than 7% during the session, and as of the close, the decline was still 6.72%. On Friday, local time, the U.S. stock TSMC continued to decline. TSMC President Wei Zhejia released a red flag at the online legal person briefing, he said that the growth rate of the semiconductor industry excluding memory in 2024 will be lowered to 10% (previously expected to exceed 10%), and the growth rate of the foundry industry will be lowered to 15%-17% (previously expected to be 20%).
Large bank stocks, energy stocks were generally higher
Big bank stocks were broadly higher. Bank of America rose more than 3%, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase rose more than 2%, Citigroup rose more than 1%, Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs rose slightly, and UBS fell slightly.
BlackRock rose 0.36%. Earlier this week, JioFinancial, part of the Reliance Group led by Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani, announced a new joint venture with BlackRock to build wealth management and securities brokerage in India. The new joint venture plans to capitalise on India's growing wealth management market and will include the establishment of a wealth management company and brokerage firm. According to Jefferies, India's wealth managers currently manage between $1 trillion and $1.2 trillion in financial assets. In addition, by setting up brokerage firms, JioFinancial and BlackRock also hope to profit from India's growing retail investors.
Goldman Sachs rose 0.22%. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. issued its second bond offering this week, with plans to offer fixed and floating rate bonds totaling $5 billion. Some of them are 11-year bonds, which can be recalled after 10 years and are expected to yield 1.22 percentage points higher than Treasuries. The bond issuance could mark Goldman Sachs' return to a more regular pace of debt issuance this year after a poor pace of bond issuance in 2023. Goldman Sachs' senior debt issuance this year could increase from less than $10 billion last year to nearly $20 billion.
Energy stocks were broadly higher. Petrobras rose more than 5%, U.S. Energy rose more than 3%, Murphy, BP, Chevron, Shell, ConocoPhillips, ExxonMobil rose more than 1%, and Occidental Petroleum rose slightly.
According to Reuters, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency said in a letter that sales of high-ethanol blended gasoline will be temporarily expanded this summer to reduce potential supply disruptions during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East. "Considering that this action is not expected to result in significant changes in air pollution, the EPA concludes that this action is in the public interest," EPA Administrator Michael Reagan wrote. ”
Jeff Cooper, president of the Renewable Fuels Association, said: "As natural gas prices rise again and geopolitical conflicts disrupt global energy markets, we support Michael Reagan in taking decisive action to address potential fuel shortages and rein in natural gas prices this summer. ”
Most of the Chinese concept stocks fell. Nasdaq China Golden Dragon fell 1.04%. Li Auto fell more than 9%, Weilai fell 5%, Xiaopeng Motors fell more than 3%, iQiyi fell more than 2%, Weibo, Tencent Music, Bilibili, fell more than 1%, Baidu, Pinduoduo, Futu Holdings fell slightly, JD.com, Alibaba rose slightly, NetEase, and Manbang rose more than 1%.
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Nvidia plummeted! TSMC sent a danger signal
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Nvidia plummeted! TSMC sent a danger signal
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