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△ National Heavy Rainfall Area Forecast Map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
People's Voice of the World, April 20, Beijing Express In the blink of an eye, the traditional 24 solar terms of "Gu Yu" have arrived. In the opinion of experts, as the warm and humid airflow moves northward in waves, when it encounters cold air from the south, it will cause frequent rainfall in the south. In the northern region, there will also be a large-scale rainfall process from west to east from the 18th to the 20th. Whether it is in the north or south, the temperature mostly shows a trend of high and then low.
△ 3-hour cumulative monitoring of severe convective weather in South China (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that monitoring data showed that from this morning (20th) to the morning, the convection in eastern Guangxi and northern Guangdong continued to be organized, and then formed a "squall line". Among them, from 09:00 to 10:00, Wuzhou, Guangxi Province experienced a short-term heavy rainfall of level 9 thunderstorm gale + 30 mm, and at the same time, Yangshan, Guangdong Province suffered a short-term heavy rainfall of level 10 thunderstorm wind + 28.9 mm. In addition, Shaoguan and Huaiji also ushered in short-term heavy rainfall. As a result, the "squall line" will continue to advance to the southeast, which will affect Qingyuan in the future, and may also affect Foshan and Guangzhou at noon. For this reason, the Central Meteorological Observatory in the morning continued to issue an orange warning for heavy rain.
△Numerical model forecast of regional precipitation extreme index (European Meteorological Center EC/development)
According to experts, from the forecast of the numerical model of the precipitation extreme index, the northwestern part of Guangxi has reached more than 0.9, which indicates that the rainfall is rare in the same period. Judging from the false equivalent potential temperature forecast, it has reached 345-350K, which is the state after the outbreak of the summer monsoon in mid-to-late May every year. From the specific humidity, it reached more than 14 g/kg, indicating that the water vapor was sufficient, corresponding to the low-altitude southwest warm and humid airflow continuously moving northward, and there was also a low vortex shear superimposed on the dynamic uplift of the Nanling terrain in the northeast of Guangxi and northwest Guangxi, so the rainfall was very strong.
△National precipitation anomaly distribution map (National Climate Center/Fa)
According to expert analysis, statistics show that since April this year (2024), the rainfall in northern Guangdong has been abnormally high. As of 08:00 on April 20, Shaoguan's 584.4 mm has broken the local record for total rainfall in April. In addition, Yingde and Fogang are likely to surpass the previous April record in the heavy rainfall today and tomorrow (21st). Therefore, for the Beijiang basin of the Pearl River tributary, numbered floods may form again.
△ National Precipitation Ranking (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
It is worth noting that insiders in the industry emphatically pointed out that it is not difficult to find in the study and judgment of the situation that, as experts said, the "squall line" located in eastern Guangxi and northern Guangdong at noon today continued to slowly move eastward and southward; at the same time, convective development along the southern coast of Guangxi also moved eastward. For example, in Fangchenggang, there were 10 thunderstorms and gales. Due to the impact of the "squall line", Fogang, Guangdong Province, experienced a level 9 thunderstorm with strong winds + 24.3 mm of short-term heavy rainfall. In addition, from 11 o'clock to 12 o'clock in Longwei, Guangxi, the rainfall also reached 46.3 mm. In the future, the convection will continue to move eastward, and there may be new convection on the southern edge of the convection, which seems to be slightly southward in the process of convection moving eastward.
*Attached: Early warning details
The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that from 14 o'clock on April 20 to 14 o'clock on the 21st, there will be heavy to heavy rain in southern Guizhou, eastern and southern Jiangnan, most of southern China and central Chongqing, among them, there will be heavy rain in some areas of southern Hunan, southern Jiangxi, southwestern Fujian, eastern Guangxi, central and northern Guangdong, and extremely heavy rain (250~280 mm) in northwestern Guangxi. (Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
*Editor's Note:
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