In late April, the domestic soybean meal market showed a see-saw trend, and the public said that the public was reasonable, and the soybean meal rose and fell with its reasonableness......
It is reported that in the first quarter of 2024, the soybean meal market presents a situation of "falling first and then rising and then falling", after the New Year's Day holiday, in terms of domestic mainstream coastal oil mills, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong and Tianjin, the spot price of soybean meal is 3830~3870 yuan/ton, due to the pressure of soybean meal and soybean inventory, the market is more pessimistic about soybean meal consumption capacity, downstream traders and feed companies are mainly low inventory, and under the "buy up, not buy down", soybean meal spot continues to fall!
Before the Spring Festival, soybean meal spot generally stabilized 3340 ~ 3380 yuan / ton, soybean meal inertia fell after the holiday, on February 29, the price of coastal oil mills fell to 3200 ~ 3270 yuan / ton, the price hit a new low, compared with September last year, soybean meal in many oil mills fell by about 1800 yuan / ton!
In late March, the price of soybean meal rose to 3570~3680 yuan/ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in many places rose to about 300~400 yuan/ton, and the quotation of some oil mills reached 480 yuan/ton!
However, after late March, the soybean meal market turned down again, and on April 11, the price of oil mills fell to 3210~3270 yuan/ton, and the price fell back to the low level in the early stage, however, the market fell further under pressure, and the price rose and fell!
According to the latest feedback, at present, the price of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is 3260~3270 yuan/ton, up 10~40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day......
Bullish Support:
On the one hand, the Brazilian soybean discount price remains high, at this stage at about 130 cents/bu, the cost of domestic imported soybeans remains high, the dutiable price of imported soybeans to Hong Kong may reach about 4,000 yuan/ton, the cost of raw materials for oil mills is higher, and the price mentality is stronger, which will also have strong support for domestic spot soybean meal prices!
On the other hand, the domestic pig production capacity continues to deplete, the market is bullish and the mentality of the market is stronger, the breeding end of the low standard pig pressure fence mentality is stronger, and the level of piglets and secondary breeding inventory has increased significantly. Superimposed, recently, the domestic aquatic market has improved significantly, the enthusiasm of breeding seedlings has increased, and the support of aquatic feed consumption has become stronger!
Bearish support:
On the one hand, according to the agency's follow-up shipping schedule, domestic soybean imports in April will increase significantly, the average weekly soybean port or will exceed 2 million tons, April is estimated to reach 9.55 million tons, and the arrival of soybeans in May is estimated to reach more than 11.8 million tons!
On the other hand, at present, the price of soybean discount in Brazil remains high, mainly due to the reduction of soybean production in Brazil, and the risk of selling pressure in the market is reduced, which supports the strong discount quotation!
However, the soybean meal outlook is slightly deviated, however, into 6~7 months, the market focus gradually shifts to North America, due to the impact of La Niña events, North American soybean growth is affected by the weather and the phenomenon of speculation and production reduction will increase, the U.S. soybean market or has strong support, the domestic spot market or will be strong expectations!
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