Author: Cheng Mo
Executive summary: There are multiple blockbuster news today. 1. The US House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the Ukraine aid bill to a vote on Saturday afternoon; 2. The latest series of US foreign aid bills contain two major China-related matters; 3. The US military transportation department will transport the weapons and ammunition needed by Ukraine to US military bases in Europe in advance; 4. The Netherlands announced an aid of $200 million in air defense missiles and ammunition; 5. European NATO member states promise to provide Ukraine with seven sets of "Patriot" air defense missile systems; 6. NATO agrees to provide more military support to Ukraine; 7. Ukraine shot down a Russian strategic bomber for the first time;8. The European Investment Bank provided 560 million euros in funds to Ukraine.
On April 19, local time in the United States, the U.S. House of Representatives passed by an overwhelming majority after fierce debate to submit the four foreign aid bills proposed by Johnson to a vote this Saturday, and determined the procedure for the final vote. This means that the aid bill for Ukraine will be passed inexorably.
The results of the vote showed that 316 members of the House of Representatives from both parties voted in favor, 94 voted against, and 21 abstained. Among them, 151 Republicans voted "yes", 55 voted "against" and 12 abstained, and 165 Democrats voted "yes", 39 "opposed" and 9 abstained. This completely bankrupted the attempt of 55 die-hard Trump supporters who are staunchly opposed to aid Ukraine to prevent the bill from being put to a vote. About two-thirds of Republican members of the House of Representatives believe that continuing to block the Ukraine aid bill will seriously damage the United States' own interests and will not help the Republican Party win the presidential and congressional elections to be held in November.
Both Republicans and Democrats voted against it with less than a third, and the reasons for opposition were varied. Republican lawmakers are mainly opposed to providing any aid to Ukraine, while Democratic lawmakers believe that the aid bill should not be linked to other issues, and they also oppose turning part of the free aid to Ukraine into loans. However, more than two-thirds of the parliamentarians said that the bill to aid Ukraine and aid to Israel is imminent, and they can only seek common ground while reserving differences and compromise with each other.
The passage of this crucial procedural resolution means that these bills have ended the stage of intense debate and will be put to a final vote on Saturday afternoon local time in the United States (early morning of the 21st Beijing time). Barring no surprises, it will receive overwhelming bipartisan support.
Because Johnson proposed a series of foreign aid bills, which were supported by the vast majority of congressmen from both parties in the US Congress and the White House, it is expected that after the House of Representatives votes and passes, the Senate will soon vote to pass them, and Biden will immediately sign them into effect. If all goes well, the entire legal process of the aid appropriation bill for Ukraine can be completed in two weeks at the earliest.
Although the Ukraine aid bill was blocked by Trump and his die-hard supporters, it was finally passed, which proves that no political party or politician can go against the mainstream public opinion in the United States, and also proves that American society does have a strong error correction mechanism. This is also my unwavering judgment.
(The U.S. House of Representatives passed the aid bill to a vote)
According to anonymous U.S. officials telling the media, once Congress passes the long-delayed aid to Ukraine bill, the Pentagon will quickly deliver weapons and ammunition to Ukraine within a few days.
A number of reliable sources show that in order to quickly deliver ammunition to the Ukrainian side, after the White House reached a consensus with Johnson and was convinced that Johnson would promote the aid to Ukraine bill, the Pentagon has arranged for the emergency transportation of the nearest European US military base to Ukraine in accordance with the ammunition and anti-aircraft missiles urgently needed by the Ukrainian side.
This proves that the Biden administration is indeed sparing no effort to aid Ukraine, and is taking remedial measures as much as possible to make up for the negative impact of Congress stopping aid appropriations for Ukraine.
It is worth noting that in the latest series of foreign aid bills introduced by the House of Representatives, there are two major China-related matters: one is to provide $8 billion in military aid to Taiwan, and the other is to include a clause that forces the Chinese short video app TikTok to be divested from its parent company, ByteDance.
In the past, the United States only sold arms to the Taiwan region, but after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the United States brazenly directly provided huge military aid to the Taiwan region, and the US Congress approved the provision of $5 billion in military aid to the Taiwan region, and now it has increased military aid by $8 billion. This huge amount of military aid even exceeds the amount of US arms purchased by the Taiwan region in the past two years. In addition to providing Taiwan with advanced weapons and ammunition, the US military aid is also to fully integrate the Taiwan military into the US military's intelligence, command, and logistics system.
If the terms involving TikTok are finally passed, TikTok will not be divested from the Chinese-controlled ByteDance, and the United States will ban TikTok altogether. TikTok has 170 million users in the United States and a market capitalization of $100 billion. If it is banned, its value will be lost. TikTok is doing everything possible to lobby the U.S. Congress and appeal directly to U.S. users to block the passage of the bill's provisions. It is not unprecedented, as the United States has legislated to restrict business operations on national security grounds, provided that there is conclusive evidence that it is related to national security.
The two China-related contents in the latest series of US foreign aid bills are major issues related to Sino-US relations. For reasons that are well known, I do not dare to make any comments, everything is subject to official statements.
(The latest U.S. bill involves major matters related to China)
The Dutch defense minister announced on April 19 that the Netherlands will provide Ukraine with more than 200 million euros in additional military support for the transfer of air defense and artillery ammunition to Ukraine.
The Netherlands is one of the most powerful countries in aiding Ukraine, ranking in the first echelon of the Western camp in terms of the total amount of aid to Ukraine and the proportion of GDP. The Netherlands had promised to provide Ukraine with more than 2 billion euros in military aid by 2024, but now it seems that it is only a lot more.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz revealed on April 19 that European members of NATO will provide Ukraine with six more Patriot missile systems to counter Russia's attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure.
Ukraine recently called on its allies to provide Ukraine with seven more Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to defend against Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and protect civilians. Germany had already promised to provide another set, so that Ukraine's demands would be fully met. It is generally believed that Ukraine already has 4 sets of "Patriot" air defense systems, plus these 7 sets and other air defense systems, it has been able to achieve full coverage of Ukrainian airspace blockade from Russian air strikes.
On April 19, local time, a special meeting of the "NATO-Ukraine Council" at the level of defense ministers was held in Brussels. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference after the meeting that the NATO side has agreed to provide more military support to Ukraine, including support for more air defense systems. This indirectly confirms that the information revealed by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is true.
"In addition to the Patriot missiles, the allies can provide Ukraine with other weapons, including the SAMP-T anti-aircraft missile system, etc., and the NATO allies have pledged financial support and the purchase of related weapons," Stoltenberg said after the meeting. ”
(Ukraine will get 7 more Patriot air defense systems)
The Russian Defense Ministry said on April 19 that a Tu-22M3 bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces crashed in the Stavropol Territory on its way back to the airport after a combat mission. According to the preliminary judgment of Russia, the crash was caused by a technical malfunction.
The Russian Defense Ministry said that four pilots ejected and escaped, three of the crew members have been found, and search and rescue team members are looking for a fourth person on board. There was no ammunition on board, the plane fell into no man's land, there were no casualties and damage to buildings on the ground. The video shows the bomber taxiing for some time after the tail was on fire, and then crashed almost vertically into a rape field.
On April 19, local time, the commander of the Ukrainian Air Force, Oreshchuk, posted on his social media that the Ukrainian Air Force anti-aircraft missile forces cooperated with the Ukrainian military intelligence for the first time to destroy a Tu-22M3 bomber launched by the Russian army with Kh-22 cruise missiles.
The Ukrainian military intelligence agency said that the Ukrainian army shot down a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber 22 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, and its means were the same as the previous Ukrainian army shot down two Russian A-50 early warning aircraft.
Ukrainian military intelligence spokesman Andrei Yusov said that the downing of the Tu-23M3 forced another Russian Tu-22M3 to turn around, noting that it was "almost impossible" for Russia to create a new Tu-22M3 bomber. The Russian army has about 60 Tu-22 strategic bombers, all of which were manufactured during the Soviet era, and are currently the main models of Russian strategic bombers.
(Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber)
The Ukrainian military intelligence bureau published a conversation between the personnel of the special operations operation and the command center during the ambush of the Russian strategic bomber. Therefore, it is certain that the plane could not have crashed for technical reasons, but was definitely shot down by the Ukrainian army.
In the early morning of the same day, the Russian army launched 22 missiles of various types and 14 attack drones into Ukraine, and the Ukrainian air defense forces destroyed 14 attack drones and 15 missiles. The downed Russian Tu-22 strategic bomber was shot down by a Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile on the way back after launching a cruise missile.
The place where the Russian Tu-22MZ plane fell is about 386 kilometers in a straight line from the Ukrainian border, east of the Crimean peninsula. Ukrainian media reported that the bomber was shot down by a Ukrainian S-200 anti-aircraft missile, and that the missile flew more than 300 kilometers before falling to the ground after damaging the plane. However, judging by the pictures of the crash airfield, the fuselage was not hit by the S-200 anti-aircraft missile, which has thousands of small bullet holes. It cannot be ruled out that it was the Ukrainian military intelligence agents who carried portable anti-aircraft missiles and entered Russian territory, ambushed the Russian strategic bomber on the route that the Russian strategic bomber must pass, and shot down the Russian strategic bomber.
Budanov's agents once infiltrated Russian territory, assassinated three well-known Russian "mouthpieces", blew up the Crimean bridge, blew up a number of railway bridges and tunnels, and also blew up warships parked at the Russian naval base and warplanes parked at the Russian air base. This time, they may have used portable anti-aircraft missiles aided by the Western camp to kill the Russian strategic bomber. Because the Western camp prohibits the Ukrainian army from striking targets on Russian soil with the weapons they assist, therefore, the Ukrainian army will not recognize such cross-border combat operations.
(Tu-22 strategic bomber crash site)
On April 19, local time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmygal announced on his official social platform that he had signed a memorandum of understanding with the European Investment Bank that Ukraine will receive 560 million euros in funds from the European Investment Bank in 2024 for projects in the fields of energy, transportation infrastructure, housing improvement, and Ukrainian economic recovery.
Obviously, the Ukrainian side, while fighting Russia, is speeding up the restoration of the economy and damaged infrastructure. The World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and Western financial institutions have played an important role in Ukraine's reconstruction.
In the past 24 hours, there have been 100 battles between Russia and Ukraine on the line of contact, all of which have been "human charges" on the scale of Russian companies and platoons, and the west of Bakhmut and Avdiivka are still the main battlefields. Unless there is a major change in the line of contact between Russia and Ukraine, or a large-scale offensive by either side above the battalion level, I will not describe the details of the engagement on each line of contact. There are numerous reports on this on international social media platforms and on the official websites of the Russian and Ukrainian ministries of defense.
On the 787th day of the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the Ukrainian General Staff announced that the battle losses of the Russian army (including Russian localities, enterprises, and separatist groups) in the past 24 hours were as follows: 750 Russian troops were annihilated (dead and seriously wounded), and a total of 458,600 Russian troops were annihilated; Shot down 1 Russian warplane, destroyed 8 Russian tanks, 21 armored vehicles, 1 air defense system, 46 fuel tankers and logistics heavy-duty vehicles, 3 sets of special equipment (mainly electronic warfare equipment), 20 artillery pieces, intercepted 30 suicide drones, 13 missiles.
(Russian army battle losses counted by the Ukrainian side on April 20)
Based on various information, I roughly estimate that the losses of Ukrainian officers and soldiers are about 95,000, of which the number of dead and seriously injured is also 1:1, and more than 20,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed. The warriors of Ukraine who died defending their homeland will return to heaven with glory and be with God.
Let us continue to pray that God will give peace and put an end to wars, that the wicked may be rewarded and the good be sheltered.