Recently, ASML released its financial report data for the first quarter of 2024, from which it is not difficult to see that ASML shipped a total of 70 lithography machines, a decrease of 54 compared with the shipment of 124 lithography machines in the fourth quarter of 2023, basically only about 60%.
Previously, ASML's president Wen Kening had said that the Chinese market is very important, and it is unrealistic to exclude the Chinese market from the world's supply chain system, which will accelerate the independent research and development of China's domestic equipment. Now that this passage is gradually becoming a reality, ASML is beginning to taste the "bitter fruit" brought by the export control of lithography machines.
In 2023, ASML's revenue has increased by about 10% to 15%, and the goal for 2024 is to maintain the same revenue level as in 2023, but now many foreign media are not optimistic about whether ASML can achieve this goal. Now ASML has reduced the number of lithography machines exported by 54 units in the first quarter of 2024, which basically shows this.
First of all, China has always been the world's largest chip consumer market, and with the rapid development of Chinese chips, our demand for semiconductor equipment such as lithography machines is gradually increasing. ASML has previously made it clear that if it were not for the restrictions of the Wassenaar agreement, China would have become the largest consumer market for EUV lithography machines.
It can also be seen from ASML's 2023 financial report data that it has delivered a large number of lithography machines to the Chinese market, and nearly half of ASML's production capacity has been allocated to Chinese customers after obtaining the shipping license, and almost all orders from Chinese enterprises have been delivered before the expiration of the shipping license.
ASML also acknowledges that the shipment growth in 2023 is closely related to the Chinese market, and now ASML is gradually starting to lose the Chinese market, which will naturally lead to a decrease in its lithography machine shipments.
Secondly, the global demand for chips has decreased significantly compared with before, which has further led to a large-scale reduction in the purchase of lithography equipment by chip foundries such as Samsung and TSMC. Judging from today's situation, Samsung, TSMC and other manufacturers have lost interest in EUV lithography machines, not to mention backward DUV lithography machines.
Samsung, TSMC and Intel are now only interested in ASML's latest NA EUV lithography machine, which is currently the most advanced lithography machine that can be used to make chips in the 2nm process, which is the most advanced process in the competition today.
As a result, ASML's global shipments have continued to decline, and even EUV lithography machines have been "cut down".
Finally, Japanese equipment manufacturers Nikon and Canon are also developing new semiconductor equipment, such as Canon's nanoimprint equipment can replace lithography machines to produce chips with 5nm process, and will start mass production this year, and also has the advantages of lower cost and unrestricted shipments.
This also led to some chip manufacturers "turning" and choosing to buy semiconductor equipment from Nikon and Canon, which further affected ASML's lithography machine shipments.
Nowadays, China's chips have accelerated their breakthroughs, and have also achieved good results in semiconductor equipment such as lithography machines, and even the good news of a breakthrough in 28nm process lithography machine technology is expected to be mass-produced and shipped in large quantities soon. This also means that ASML, which has now lost the Chinese market, will only have a harder time, and today's decline in shipments is not the end, but just the beginning.
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