Original author: Bitpush
Original source: Bitpush
The day of the halving has arrived, and according to data provided by btc.com, the BTC halving is expected to occur around 9:00 p.m. ET, when miner rewards will be slashed from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Amid sticky inflation in the United States and rising international geopolitical tensions, the crypto market has been volatile and consolidating. Bitcoin plunged to a low of $59,590 at one point after Israel's attack on Iran last night, but rebounded in trading on Friday, hitting an intraday high of $65,500 during the midday session before falling back to the $64,300 support at the time of writing, Bitui data showed.
Altcoins had a positive end to the week
The altcoin market ended the week mixed, with most of the top 200 coins recording gains on Friday.
Saga (SAGA) 以 24.5% 的涨幅领跑， JITO (JTO) 上涨 17.3%，dogwifhat (WIF) 上涨 17%。 Ribbon Finance (RBN) 下跌 13.2%，领跌，其次是 Livepeer (LPT) 下跌 6.9%，Helium (HNT) 下跌 4.9%。
The overall market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently $2.34 trillion, and Bitcoin dominates 54.1% of the market capitalization.
The sell-off in big tech stocks took its toll on the stock market, with the S&P and Nasdaq closing down 0.88% and 2.05%, respectively, while the Dow rose 0.56%. Friday marked the sixth consecutive closing of the S&P in the red, the longest losing streak of the year.
Much of the weakness in the market as a whole may be attributed to signals from the Fed on the issue of rate cuts, with the latest comments from several Fed officials suggesting that there may not be a rate cut in 2024 as inflation remains stubbornly high.
The US 10-year Treasury yield ended the week up 205 basis points from the start of the week, with the dollar index up 0.15%.
Large investors bought $1.2 billion in bitcoin again
Bitcoin addresses holding at least 0.1% of the supply added 19,760 BTC on Friday, worth more than $1.2 billion, with an average price of $62,500, according to blockchain analytics firm IntoTheBlock's "Big Holder Net Flow" metric. In an X post, IntoTheBlock said: "Bitcoin whales may finally start buying dips. Historically, the accumulation of these addresses has tended to precede the rise in the price of Bitcoin. ”
In an April 19 article published on X, crypto analyst Rekt Capital said: "Bitcoin's 'danger zone' (the orange zone in the chart below), where pullbacks tend to occur before halving, has completed its mission. In this danger zone, Bitcoin produced two -18% pullbacks, and the halving is just today, which means that the 'danger zone' is now officially over. ”
Trend after the halving
The halving is another exciting moment in Bitcoin's history, with some fearing that the halving could become a "sell-off news" event, while others believe the halving benefits have already been priced in by the market.
Ryan Grace, head of tastycrypto, said in a Bloomberg interview that he doesn't see the halving date as a catalyst for price action – it's likely to be a 'sell-off news' event. Traders had already bought Bitcoin before the halving, and the correction was expected to be short-lived. Using the recent ETF approval as a reference point, BTC corrected -20% after the news broke.
He added: "The previous halving cycle did not have a clear conclusion, with the Bitcoin price at -10% 1 month after the 2016 halving and +8% a month after the 2020 halving. During these two periods, the Bitcoin price fluctuated in a range of 20% within a month of the halving date. ”
As for how Bitcoin will perform in the 6 to 18 months following the halving, Grace concluded, "If this cycle follows the halving cycle of the last 4 years, we could see the BTC price surpass $150,000 at its peak. What's more, the existence of ETFs and increased global liquidity will drive post-halving price increases, not the halving itself. ”
Ryze Labs analysts said in a note that the macro environment is still one of the influencing factors that investors need to pay attention to.
"Over the past weekend, the market experienced a broad sell-off due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, affecting both traditional and crypto assets," the analysts said. This comes on the heels of Iran's drone attack on Israel, raising fears of further action by Israel or its allies. ”
Amid these tensions, Bitcoin fell to a low of $60,800 before rebounding to $65,000, while most altcoins fell by around 25-30%. "This move underscores that Bitcoin is not yet considered a 'safe-haven' asset like 'digital gold' by institutional investors, as there have been no significant inflows during this period," Ryze Labs analysts said. ”
The data shows that the BTC funding rate has turned negative sharply, with the annualized rate falling to a low of -40% to -60% this year, and similarly, the BTC 3-month annualized basis has also hit an annual low of 4.85% in the short term, reflecting strong bearish sentiment in the market, driven by widespread liquidation of long positions and increased short selling.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish rhetoric "initially roiled the markets," but "the market reaction was relatively muted, suggesting potential seller fatigue," and analysts recommend continuing to focus on upcoming inflation data as a key indicator of the direction of the Fed's monetary policy going forward, Ryze Labs said.