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△ National Thunderstorm Gale or Hail Warning (Central Meteorological Observatory/Issue)
People's Voice of the World, April 19, Beijing Express In the blink of an eye, the traditional 24 solar terms of "Gu Yu" have arrived. In the opinion of experts, as the warm and humid airflow moves northward in waves, when it encounters cold air from the south, it will cause frequent rainfall in the south. In the northern region, there will also be a large-scale rainfall process from west to east from the 18th to the 20th. Whether it is in the north or south, the temperature mostly shows a trend of high and then low.
△24-hour cumulative monitoring of severe convective weather in South China (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that monitoring data showed that from last night (18th) to today (19th), from Guizhou to Guangxi, Hunan, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Fujian and other places, there was a wide range of strong convective weather from west to east, with gusts of 8-11 and short-term heavy rainfall of 50-80 mm. In the next three days, convection will remain very active in the southern part of the Yangtze River and southern China, and strong convective weather such as short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and hail may also be seen. From the 20th to the 21st, there may be a "squall line" in Guangxi and Guangdong. For this reason, the Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a yellow warning for severe convective weather tonight.
△National short-term heavy precipitation warning (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to experts, on meteorological snow, the atmospheric precipitation is sufficient, and when the uplift index is below 0, it indicates that the atmosphere is unstable, and the smaller the ratio to 0, the stronger the potential convection intensity. In the 500 hPa altitude field, whether there is a southerly warm and humid airflow near the bottom of the trough and whether there is cold air at low altitude can easily lead to strong convection. From the forecast of the situation field at 14 o'clock every day from the 20th to the 22nd, it can be seen that the Guangxi area on the 20th formed a configuration with a cold trough above and warm and humid at the low altitude; at the same time, there was a northeast wind from the north to the south, which caused a positive interaction between cold and warm, causing convection; the dry and cold advection of the upper cold trough intensified the convection, and the vertical wind shear was larger.
△National Severe Convective Weather Outlook (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
It is worth noting that industry insiders emphasized that it is not difficult to find that it is not difficult to find that as experts say, judging from the current forecast, the Guangxi area on the 20th may form a "squall line" to move eastward. On the 21st, in Guangdong, southern Hunan, and southern Jiangxi, there is also a similar configuration of dry and cold at the top and warm and wet at the bottom, and the vertical wind shear is also large, and a "squall line" may also occur.
*Attached: Early warning details
(Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
*Editor's Note:
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