The Knicks' regular season record against the 76ers is 3-1, and Embiid only played the first of these four games. However, even in the regular season G1 in which Embiid played, the 76ers lost badly. If you remember, Embiid entered the conference room after the game. In 4 games, the 76ers failed to score more than 100 points, and in the one game they won, the score on both sides was 79-73. Interestingly, the 76ers won this game, neither Embiid nor Maxey, and this low score also hinted at the style of the game - extreme constipation.
In fact, you only have to think that the coaches on both sides of this matchup are Thibodeau and Nas, and you can already roughly guess what the main theme of the series is. Guessing from the end-of-season hires of both teams, both sides will probably be dominated by an eight-man rotation, and it will be even shorter in the later stages of the series.
Knicks expected 8-man roster:
Bronson, DiVincenzo, Hart, OG Anunoby, Harten, McBride, Bojan, Miró
If there are no surprises, Achiuwa and Burks may not have many opportunities to play. However, the Knicks have used Achiuwa and OG to split Maxey and Embiid's pick-and-rolls, and it's uncertain if that usage will be repeated briefly at some point.
76 Expected 8 List:
Maxey, Lowry, Oubre, Harris, Embiid, Hield, Batum, Reed
Judging from the current news, Melton's injury is unclear, and it is unknown which one can be played. Payne may have very little time.
The eight-man rotation of the two teams maintains the continuity of the backcourt, forwards, and interior lines, and the manpower is quite sufficient. The Knicks are missing Randle, one of the cores, and it looks like they have a greater loss of functionality, because in addition to Bronson in the Knicks' core rotation, only DiVincenzo and Bojan are left in roles between the main attacker and shooter. On the other hand, the 76ers do not have Melton, and they still have Oubre and Batum to lead the defense. With the Knicks having only one main attacker, the 76ers' counterpoint resources seem to be sufficient.
But in reality, the focus of this series is not on alignment. The most challenging player for the two sides is Embiid, and the Knicks just have two big centers on the side. The 76ers also have two 3-and-D forwards to cover Bronson. At the smallest point on either side, Maxey can hide in DiVincenzo, who has limited ability to punish with the ball (though, I'll be a little worried about the effectiveness of Maxey's defensive hand-to-hand hand), and Bronson can hide in Lowry, who doesn't play much of the main offense. The Knicks don't have outside projections on the inside, and they can't punish Embiid. On the other hand, although Embiid has three points, firstly, his three-point production is limited, which has never been the focus of defense, and secondly, Embiid will participate in tactics most of the rounds, and he has limited off-ball rounds, and he is not a space point to dismantle the basket protector in the usual sense.
In other words, there is no complete alignment point in this series, and there will be no embarrassing situation of not knowing how to defend against it.
In addition, the respective coaching styles of Nurse and Thibodeau dictate that they will not let the opponent play a group of positions or blocks in a row. It is inevitable that the two sides will deploy troops from the three-point line to support the middle, and try to limit the rampage of core players.
It's not certain if the Knicks will lead Maxey with OG or DiVincenzo, and they've tried both options in the regular season. The good thing about Dewin is that OG can stay on the line to help defend, and his big size can both take over Embiid and disrupt others with the basket. The advantage of OG leading the defense is that in addition to the higher quality of the individual defense, he can also make local changes with Harden at the free-throw line. Considering the Knicks' style of inevitably shrinking the three-point line to protect the middle, if Diwin didn't have a problem defending one, I think OG would be better off guarding. The 76ers' forward athleticism has improved now, and Nas also emphasizes punching the board more than Lao Li, and OG + Hart will be safer under the basket;
For the 76ers, Embiid's defense of Bronson's blocking and pick-and-roll could not sink too deep, and Bronson's ability to shoot with the ball was too strong, at least to give a weak delay. He'll have to deal with Bronson's good shots and Harden's down-and-down handling, while the Knicks have the league's No. 1 frontcourt rebound behind him. The 76ers' off-ball defenders must provide support to the center to alleviate the up-and-down load that Embiid may face.
Therefore, a large part of the main offensive power of Bronson, Embiid, and Maxey will eventually be transformed into a game on the defensive side without the ball on both sides, testing the transfer of the ball, space, defensive quality and rotation speed.
In terms of moving the ball, Maxey + Embiid may not be higher than Bronson + Hatten;
In terms of space, there are flaws on both sides. DiVincenzo is an elite shooter, OG is a decent bottom corner shooter, and Hart is a three-point scorer but can break the ball. Oubre is shooting 31.1% from three-point range this season, with Hart being the same as accurate but more daring to shoot, and his style is reckless, which may be possible in the regular season, and the playoffs may have to be famous when they meet the more targeted Knicks. Lowry is a qualified shooter and has secondary processing capabilities. Harris doesn't have a good three-point output, and he needs to play to the basket and mid-range. Overall, the biggest danger of off-ball spots on both sides is Oubre, followed by Hart;
What about the quality of the defense and the speed of rotation?
This is the most interesting part of this set of matchups.
If OG stays in the lower line, from the configuration point of view, OG + Hart + Bronson (make offensive fouls), the trio should explode Harris + Maxey + Lowry (make offensive fouls). The Knicks' hard-working style is more distinct than that of the 76ers, and it's not hard to imagine them making seven turnovers in a single game.
After this pairing decision, my gut feeling was that the Knicks would rely on defensive toughness to win.
But if we think back to Nurse's revamp of the 76ers and their tenacity against the Heat in the second half of the playoffs, you'd expect the 76ers to come up with something different from what they've seen in the playoffs.
Will the Great be an unexpected variable?
If Embiid does more on the defensive end than expected, the 76ers may have a hard time with the Knicks.
Objectively speaking, if you can really use different people in offensive and defensive rounds, I guess Nas doesn't want to use his two inside and outside cores on the defensive end. Embiid is a better defender in a large sample size, which can be done with talent, but Nurse prefers a full running attitude. If Embiid is still overdrawn on the offensive end, and the defensive end is closer to the "playoff must be injured" version in the past years, it will be difficult for the 76ers to beat the Knicks.
Embiid really wants to cut down on one-on-one. After the Knicks narrowed the defensive circle, one-on-one meant four people at the three-point line, putting too little pressure on the defensive rotation, and his huge size needed more space to break through than the outside players, which may replicate the picture of last year's G7 with the Celtics - unable to get off the ball on both sides of the left and right, and forced to shoot at the top of the man. In the early stages of the series, when there is not much pressure and physical energy, maybe Embiid can solve it. It's hard to say later. The high-post ball-handling tactics practiced this season, and Maxey's blocking, the team's multiple sub-attackers have a certain amount of value in digesting the ball, which must be used to allow themselves to have more physical energy to allocate on defense.
After all, it's a defensive round.
The 76ers also have two bench variables. Batum is a clearer player than Oubre, with better three-point response and smarter defensive options. Hield is very important, he is the 76ers' deadliest shooter, whether it is a direct cooperation with Embiid, or running to create chaos, and set points to open up space, he will be a very nasty existence for the Knicks. The Knicks also have two shooters off the bench, Bojan and McBride, who at some point will also be Thibodeau's medicine for constipation.
This could be another series of big discussions about Embiid's technical characteristics. As the last MVP and the frontrunner for high-level stats before injury this season, Embiid is theoretically the undoubted No. 1 star in the series. But in the playoffs, especially in a series where there are flaws on both sides and the defensive intensity is full, the player who occupies the center position must make a defensive contribution. The Knicks' two blue-collar centers are bound to give it their all, and Embiid should have the same attitude.
Overall, I think the Knicks are the upper hand.
And if Embiid can get through that, it's probably because he's done more than scoring in previous playoff games.