The black swan struck, and the global market fluctuated greatly.
Xinhua News Agency reported that on the 19th local time, an explosion occurred in the northeast of Isfahan Province in central Iran, and the site of the explosion was close to Isfahan International Airport and Iranian Air Force Base. Iran activated air defense systems in many places. Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran, Iran, has temporarily suspended international flights. Flights at many airports in Mehrabad, Isfahan, Shiraz and other places have also been suspended.
Affected by this news, crude oil and gold rose in a straight line intraday, and the main international copper contract once rose nearly 3%, hitting a record high.
Separately, JPMorgan Chase President Daniel Pinto said that the Fed may not cut interest rates at all this year given the persistently high level of inflation. New York Fed President Williams said that the Fed is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, economic data will determine the timing, and there is still a possibility of a rate hike this year. The Asia-Pacific stock market shook sharply in the morning, with the Nikkei 225 index falling more than 3% intraday, and stock markets in South Korea and Australia also falling sharply. The futures of the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively weakened, and the euro area STOXX50 futures fell sharply.
A-share resource stocks strengthened across the board in the morning, with sectors such as grain and shipping rising sharply, while sectors such as TMT, large consumption, and new energy industry chain fell sharply. By the end of the morning, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index was down 1.31%, and the ChiNext Index was down 2.2%.
Cyclicals strengthened
This morning, cyclicals strengthened. Specifically, the oil and gas exploitation sector rose the most, with Tongyuan Petroleum and potential Hengxin rising by 20%. The "three barrels of oil" rose together, CNOOC rose 4.73%, the intraday share price hit a record high, and PetroChina rose more than 2%.
Analysts said that in the short term, commodity prices are volatile in an environment of increased geopolitical risks. In the long run, supply and demand factors will continue to dominate the pricing system of commodities, while geopolitical factors will play a role in resonating with supply and demand factors. In 2024, geopolitics has entered a new period of tension, considering that the current OPEC+ organization strengthens the implementation of production cuts, which is expected to tighten the supply side of crude oil and grow steadily in global crude oil demand, the IEA expects crude oil demand to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2024, crude oil supply and demand are still marginally good, and commodities will usher in a new business cycle.
The chemical sector collectively strengthened, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer, spandex, soda ash, titanium dioxide and other sectors rose sharply, and Sichuan Jinnuo and Hubei Yihua stocks rose sharply.
Recently, the prices of some chemical products have risen rapidly, and product profits have improved significantly, which has attracted market attention. CITIC Securities said that since the first quarter of 2024, the chemical varieties whose prices have achieved excessive growth compared with costs include refrigerants, TMA, viscose filaments, nitrochlorobenzene, maltol, vitamins, MMA, etc. In the short and medium term, the varieties whose prices and profits are expected to recover upwards include viscose staple fiber, glyphosate, chromium chemicals, nylon, acetic acid, etc.
Gold, copper and other sectors also rose, Zijin Mining rose 0.81%, and its intraday share price hit another record high.
It is worth noting that in this round of gold price rally, the dollar index is also strengthening, which is contrary to the negative correlation between the two in the past. In this regard, CITIC Futures said that the relationship between the US dollar index and gold prices in history is only a weak negative correlation, not a sustained and stable negative correlation, mainly because the US dollar and gold also have hedging attributes, and there will be a situation of rising together when risk events occur.
Topix futures said that the trading logic behind the dollar and gold is different. The rebound in inflation in the U.S. economy has delayed market expectations for interest rate cuts. In contrast, the ECB is more willing to cut interest rates, and the resonance of internal and external factors has led to the strengthening of the dollar index. However, the strength of the US dollar did not cause a significant pressure on gold prices, mainly because the market expects the Fed to enter an easing cycle sooner or later this year and increase its tolerance for inflation.
TMT sector pullback
This morning, the TMT sector pulled back, and semiconductors, consumer electronics, AI and other sectors fell sharply.
China Securities Construction Investment said that since 2024, telecom operators' intelligent computing centers have been intensively put into use. In the process of building digital infrastructure ahead of time, the construction of intelligent computing centers has become a key direction for telecom operators. In 2024, China Mobile plans to spend 47.5 billion yuan on computing power, and China Telecom plans to spend 47.5 billion yuan on computing power, up 4.1% year-on-year to 37 billion yuan. Previously, China Telecom and China Unicom have started the purchase of AI servers, with the number of 4175 and 2503 respectively, and it is expected that China Mobile will also open AI server procurement in the future. It is recommended to pay attention to the domestic computing power industry chain.
(The picture of the market in the article comes from the straight flush)
Editor: Zhang Nan Jiao Yuanyuan Proofreader: Zhang Jing Signed: Sun Hong