Many people say that the Chinese market is relatively short of money now, which can be seen from the downturn in the loan business of major banks, and even the performance of the tourism market is much calmer than in previous years.
But in the near future, you can take a look at the direction of popularity.
Either go to the Northeast to see the Ice and Snow Festival, or go to Shandong to eat Zibo barbecue, and recently even go to Gansu to eat Malatang, from the social level, these heats are indeed valuable.
But judging from these popular tourist locations, there is still no money in the society, otherwise they would not choose these low-cost destinations to relieve stress.
This also makes many people feel that Chinese society has entered a situation of deflation, but the financial community has different ideas about this issue, and the central bank's M2 stock has reached 300 trillion.
Looking at China here, there is no shortage of money, and it can even be said that there are some signs of inflation, so why is there such a situation of expansion at the top and contraction at the bottom?
In fact, this has a lot to do with the confidence of the investment market, in the past, once the major banks had the currency balance released by the central bank, then they would sit and wait for the major manufacturing enterprises to come to the door to lend the money.
In this process, not to mention 300 billion, even if it doubles the cost, it will not be able to satisfy the appetite of the money-hungry manufacturing industry.
However, with the decrease in demand in the manufacturing industry, most factories are actually reducing their production capacity, and here we can take a look at the Tesla Gigafactory in Shanghai, isn't it reducing its own production capacity.
Another consequence of reducing production capacity is layoffs, after all, entrepreneurs are not philanthropists and will not idle some employees at a loss.
Ordinary people have no income in this society, or reduce their income, which will lead to a decline in consumption power, no consumption power, and naturally no market demand, and then greater problems will be fed back to manufacturing.
People don't have money to communicate, and if they continue to produce, there will be a backlog of inventory, and the direct result of a large backlog is a loss.
At present, this is such a situation, so don't look at the central bank has 300 trillion M2, but this money cannot be transferred to the market at present, and if it does not come to the market, then the economy will not be able to develop rapidly, and the so-called financial idling situation has been formed.
The central bank released the currency, and the major banks had money, but the market's expectations were low, so there was not so much financial demand in the manufacturing sector.
In the past, when the housing market still had prospects, if this happened, then the money would flow to the property market without accident, because China's property market is such a big plate, it can swallow the money.
When real estate investors have money, they will feed material suppliers, labor teams and even a series of spin-off industries.
Such a housing market can also prevent the situation of financial idling, but now it is a pity that the real estate industry is also sluggish, and at this time, there is naturally no capital willing to take this money to invest in real estate.
They are also afraid of losses, the loss at this time is not a small amount, so the industry has also maintained a restrained attitude, manufacturing and real estate are on the official website, then in the past there is a place to eat this money, that is the stock market.
For perennial stock speculators, they all know that once they enter the big bull market, even if they pull a child in, they can make money, and naturally many people are willing to increase leverage and will obtain sources of funds from various angles.
Generally, when real estate and other industries are in a downturn, people will flow funds to the stock market in order to avoid risks, passively forming a bull market situation, and everyone can make money at this time.
In the case of relatively low wages, in the stock market to be satisfied, this kind of "unearned" funds are easy to make the society have a consumption mood, and consumption will bring demand, demand reverse stimulation, will also promote the development of manufacturing and real estate, which is a benign development process.
But the difficulty now is in the stock market, and he can't do it.
Some time ago, we also saw that the dividends obtained by many people through their superb financial management skills have now been pasted, and even many people have caused huge losses.
In this bear market, it is difficult for even so-called financial experts, let alone ordinary people, to protect themselves.
This has also led to today's situation, manufacturing, real estate, stock market and other gold-absorbing bulls are calmly wait-and-see, 300 trillion M2 is quite a lot.
However, it is impossible to enter the market, and if such a situation continues to develop, the consequences are obviously unimaginable, so the current financial market urgently needs a breakthrough idea to solve the phenomenon of financial idling.
Many people may think that they can learn from the financial markets in Europe and the United States and cut interest rates, or even to zero, so that ordinary people will be "forced" to consume, and the market will recover in this way.
The money spent by ordinary people will soon be reinstated after the recovery of manufacturing, real estate and other industries, and the impact on ordinary people is not great.
But they underestimate the consumption thinking of Chinese, and the more money they have, the more they will choose to save money, and in this way to avoid risks, everyone is afraid of the days when there is no money.
Therefore, even if you cut interest rates to zero, it will not change much of the situation, capital will be risk-averse, and ordinary people also have ordinary people's risk-averse thinking.
At this time, it seems that a dead circle has been formed, and the phenomenon of financial idling will continue, but in fact, this cannot be thought of as such, and the state is actually very strategic in terms of macroeconomic control.
For example, the treasury bonds invested in the market before, this fund has driven a lot of markets, and through the upgrading of various hedging facilities, it has not only ensured social security, but also driven a lot of economic development.
In this point, there is actually a reference role, since the bank has the 300 trillion idling, so why not invest it in infrastructure, for the infrastructure of this thing, once it is completed, it will greatly improve the sense of social happiness.
In this process, it can also drive the development of engineering teams and material suppliers, and the source of materials naturally needs the assistance of the manufacturing industry.
What we need now is to build consumer confidence in the market, once ordinary people have a job in their hands and get the money, then they will naturally consume without stimulation, and the 300 billion idling situation can also be solved.
In addition, to change the bank's lending thinking, in the past, they expected to lend money to state-owned enterprises, central enterprises and other large enterprises, although such enterprises will not increase the risk of bad debts, there is a state to do the back, the return on investment is inevitable, of course, this is also caused by the bank's hedging thinking.
But for today's situation, we urgently need to change, now the real lack of money is small and micro enterprises, these enterprises need the injection of funds, if they can operate, then the people under the private enterprises will naturally have money in their hands, wages and benefits will increase consumption will also rise.
In this process, banks should think outside the box and invest in some risky projects, which may cause certain losses, but it is also better than financial idling.
The current situation has not allowed us to move forward steadily, many times to learn to break through themselves, the past comfort let too many people begin to lie flat, and now continue to develop according to this model, then it will really form a real market deflationary situation.
People have no money in their hands, no consumer confidence, there will be a bigger thunderstorm later, this year's real estate has been a warning, of course, the real estate thunderstorm, but also for us to catch some black sheep.
This also tells us that everything has a two-way street, and if the bank makes a risky investment, it looks like there will be a risk of loss, but the recovery of the consumer market is unimaginable!
Information sources:
China Fund News - 300 trillion! Just now, the central bank responded
Observer.com - The central bank talks about M2 breaking through 300 trillion: it is not appropriate to make a simple comparison of the same period, and the monitoring of capital idling will be strengthened