In September last year, Azerbaijan once again launched a large-scale military operation against Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and because of Armenia's practice of "riding the wall" between the United States and the West and Russia, the Russian army stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh watched from the sidelines. The result was a massive defeat for Armenia, a complete victory for Azerbaijan, and the Nagorno-Karabakh region finally ceased to exist on September 28, 2023.
According to the agreement signed by Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, the Russian army will deploy 1,960 soldiers and the rest of the weapons and equipment in the border area of Afghanistan until 2025. The aim is to enable the two countries to maintain peace as much as possible and to abide by the ceasefire agreement. Recently, however, the Russian side has begun to withdraw these troops to the country. On April 18, foreign media reported that the Russian troops deployed in Armenia had withdrawn from Nagorno-Karabakh, and nearly 2,000 Russian troops had returned to Moscow, the capital of Russia. This has been confirmed by the press secretary of the President of Russia, Dmitry Peskov, who is very familiar to everyone.
And Russia's early withdrawal from Nagorno-Karabakh is actually almost inevitable, because neither Azerbaijan nor Armenia actually welcomes the Russian troops sandwiched between these two countries. As early as September 2023, just after the end of the 2023 conflict between Azerbaijan and Afghanistan, the deputy commander of the Russian army in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Colonel Ivan Kovgan, was unfortunately killed due to the "accidental attack" of Azerbaijan. According to the Azerbaijani side, the incident was a complete accident, but in fact, when the Russian army acts, especially in such a special place as the Nagorno-Karabakh region, it generally displays the flags and emblems of the Russian army. Outside analysts pointed out that it is very likely that the Azerbaijani side deliberately "put medicine on the eyes" of Russia.
At that time, the deputy commander of the Russian army in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Colonel Ivan Kovgan
In addition, Armenia is also very dissatisfied with the Russian army and Russia. The main reason for this is that Armenia resents Russia for not "coming to the rescue" of Armenia during the Argentine conflict. And now, Armenia can be said to have completely fallen to the United States and the West, and has become the "gripper" of the United States and the West to intervene in the Caucasus.
Not long ago, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan and relevant EU officials, including von der Leyen, met in Brussels. The EU said it would provide up to 270 million euros in aid to Armenia in the future. In addition, France also seems to be "quite interested" in Armenia. For example, on April 16, the French side said that it had recalled the French ambassador to Azerbaijan and criticized the Azerbaijani side. French President Emmanuel Macron also said "proudly" in his previous phone call with Pashinyan that France would support the "action to establish peace in the Nagorno-Karabakh region". And armored vehicles allegedly aided by France to Armenia have also arrived.
French Foreign Minister Catelyn Colonna (left) visits Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, to meet with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan
In this case, the situation faced by the Russian troops stationed there is indeed quite embarrassing, and it is not surprising that they left early. However, will Armenia's turning to the United States and the West really bring it lasting peace? The United States, which has always been shrewd, will not actually make a "loss-making deal," and Armenia is only a small mountainous landlocked country with a population of 3 million, and the United States is estimated to have limited interest in this. Although France has the intention to expand its own power, it is afraid that France is even more unreliable than the United States. For example, when Gabon and Niger, which were previously considered France's "backyards", had a coup d'état that was unfavorable to France, France has almost nothing to do so far, and recently discussed the withdrawal of troops with the Nigerien military.
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It can be seen that compared to Russia, which has direct interests in the Caucasus, the United States and France are really not ideal options for Armenia. The complete withdrawal of Russian troops this time is likely to mean a complete rupture of Russian-Asian relations, and the author is indeed not optimistic about Armenia's national prospects.