Preface
In 1981, the mainland broke through the 1 billion population mark, and 28 years later it exceeded 1.4 billion.
In 2022, the Chinese population will experience negative growth for the first time, with a decrease of nearly 900,000 people.
According to the United Nations, the Chinese population will continue to decline in the future, and may never break through the 1.5 billion population mark.
China, which has always been "famous" for its demographic dividend, why has its population continued to experience negative growth in recent years?
How much will be left by 2050?
The increase in the cost of living has led to a shift in the perception of childbearing
When it comes to the reasons for the decline in population, the first thing must be that those who can give birth and those who don't want to give birth.
Why don't you want to give birth? because the cost of living is too high.
Although we were born in the best of times, we enjoy the convenience brought by technology.
But at the same time, it is also an era when the cost of living is extremely high.
The "forced" improved quality of life requires us to put in more effort – we need to make more money.
Buying a car, buying a house, getting married has already cost a lot of money, let alone raising another child?
From his childhood training to his financial independence, the money he needs to invest is a bottomless pit that cannot be measured at all!
What's more, everyone is scrambling to grab high-quality education and medical resources, and the money invested in it will only increase.
Compared to the idea of "one more person, one more labor" fertility in the past.
The common thinking among young people now is, "If I can't give him a good life, then why should I let him come into this world to inherit my suffering?"
Therefore, everyone will become more cautious in the face of childbirth.
And to get to the source, not only do they not want to have children, but they don't even want to get married.
Pursue freedom alone
The older generation thinks that it is not serious to fall in love and not get married.
However, modern young people who advocate the freedom of marriage and love believe that it is not as good as before, one reason is that the cost of marriage is greatly increased, and the other reason is that they are very careful in choosing their partners.
Although today's society has severely criticized the comparison of high bride price, when it comes to the time when families talk about marriage, the bride price is still a wall that cannot be bypassed.
"A friend of mine in Jiangxi got married, and the bride price was 300,000. ”
The bride price of a newcomer in a certain place is as high as 500,000, and netizens shouted: "Is this a marriage or a sale of a daughter?"
There are also many family conflicts caused by the bride price, and even broke up directly because the bride price was not negotiated.
Seeing this status quo of marriage, young people have said, "Tired and tired to send money out, it doesn't matter if the marriage is not married, a happy person is at ease." ”
Those who don't have money can't afford to get married, so what about those who do?
Those who have money either have high requirements for their partners or don't want to hinder their careers because of marriage and family, especially women.
Now society is getting more and more rolled, and women are becoming more and more self-conscious.
Everyone wants to pursue their own place in society, and their dedication is getting heavier and heavier.
Men are the pursuit of identity and status, while women are eager to be liberated from the family, break the old concept of "husband and child", pursue independence in everything, do not depend on anyone, and realize their own value.
Once married and have a family, especially after having children, at least one of the parties will compromise and sacrifice their career development to take care of the children and the whole family.
No one wants to be the one who compromises, so everyone's desire to get married, let alone have children, is getting lower and lower.
Labor faults
According to the projected data, China's total population will decrease by about 100 million by 2050, while the labor force will fall from 930 million to 740 million, a decrease of 190 million.
And the population of the elderly will increase from 180 million to 410 million, an increase of 230 million!
This means that the pension task carried by the labor force will be more arduous, and there will be a huge fault line in the labor force.
In recent years, social security and family planning policies have changed frequently, which shows that China's aging situation has become very serious.
In addition to the new first-tier cities, many cities said that it is difficult for fiscal spending to support pensions and pensions.
In the face of the fact that the "comprehensive two-child" policy did not achieve the expected results, the "three-child policy" was also introduced within a few years.
However, despite the encouragement, most families say that one child is enough.
According to the current trend of population development, there are more and more elderly people, and there are fewer and fewer newborns, and it seems that the labor force is decreasing and the pension dilemma has been a foregone conclusion.
Economic development is shrinking
"Made in China" has always been well-known all over the world. Its rapid development undoubtedly depends on the country's huge demographic dividend.
Because of its large population, China's manufacturing industry is quite developed. Its industrial development is also developed on a labor-intensive basis.
Manufacturing is the foundation of China's development, from infrastructure to the mass production of daily necessities, the lifeline of the national economy and the people's livelihood are inseparable from the development of manufacturing.
Although China is transforming to support technology-intensive and knowledge-intensive industries, the status of the manufacturing industry has not been affected in the slightest, and its importance can be imagined.
Therefore, the huge fault line in the labor force is bound to have a significant impact on China's economy.
On the one hand, there is a shortage of domestic labor, and the scale of production and manufacturing has been greatly reduced; on the other hand, the export of human capital to overseas manufacturing projects will also decrease, thereby reducing the income of international foreign trade.
When the country's economy weakens, people's incomes will also fall, and their desire and ability to consume will decrease.
Consumption and exports are the driving force for economic growth, because labor shortages have hindered both consumption and exports, and China's development may usher in an unprecedented downturn.
It's a challenge, it's an opportunity
The decline in the labor force, the difficulty of providing for the elderly, and the weak economy are all problems that will inevitably be brought about by the sudden decline of the population.
This is a major challenge, but at the same time a great opportunity for development.
Because we anticipate problems, we will prepare in advance, and constantly adjust and improve various solutions to achieve the least harm, survive the difficult period of development, and even achieve transformation.
Because of the population prediction and the control of the basic national conditions, we will take a multi-pronged approach to continuously improve the population policy.
From the encouragement of childbirth to the support of the elderly, in order to solve the population problem, China is getting better and better on the road of improving the welfare policy.
Because there are problems, we will move forward in solving them.
Nursing homes around the country are getting better and better, which not only increases the happiness of the elderly, but also reduces the burden of young people.
Encourage the elderly to re-enter the workforce, solve the labor shortage, and reduce the financial and young people's pension burden.
The diversion of technical schools and general high schools encourages academic success, employment skills, and "double reduction" to reduce the burden on children and reduce the educational burden of parents.
Financial incentives and social support increase couples' expectations of having children and reduce concerns about the cost of parenting.
We have the opportunity to move from a vicious cycle of reluctance to have children to a virtuous circle of willingness to have children.
In the face of labor shortage, in addition to the "open source" policy of increasing labor, there is also a very important "throttling" policy - improving the quality of labor force and accelerating industrial transformation.
With the development of technology, simple labor will be replaced by artificial intelligence. So in the future, we may not really need that much simple labor.
And the reduction of the labor force gives us an opportunity to achieve transformation.
We should improve the quality of the population, pay attention to the cultivation of R&D-oriented talents, improve the technological content of the industry, and transform from an economy that relies on the development of labor-intensive industries to an economy that relies on the development of high-tech industries.
Enter a new stage of development, open up new markets, and truly achieve high-quality economic development.
epilogue
Reduction is not a negative word. While it is true that the forecast is not optimistic, we should not be pessimistic about the future.
The next 20 years or so will be full of uncertainties.
Maintaining an objective and positive attitude, discovering problems, preventing problems, solving problems, and challenges are also turning points for development.
I believe that under the leadership of the party and the people, we have the courage and confidence to overcome any hardships and the ability to resolve any difficulties.
Resources
[Data Overview: 2022 Population-related Data] - National Development and Reform Commission
Zhang Junni: Characteristics of Chinese Population Structure and Forecast for the Next 50 Years - National School of Development, Peking University