The "419 curse" has reappeared, and what will happen to the A-share market in the future?

Today, A-shares as a whole fluctuated slightly, and the ChiNext index and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 both hit new lows.

The transaction volume of the two cities shrank further, falling below 900 billion yuan. On the disk, energy stocks, national defense and military industry, low-altitude economy, gold and other sectors were among the top gainers, while semiconductors, Internet, electrical equipment, mixed reality and other sectors were among the top decliners.

As a result of Israel's attack on Iran, there was a huge earthquake in global assets, and today happens to be April 19, and the "419 curse has been fulfilled once again." (The so-called "419 curse" refers to April 19 every year, and if it is a weekend, it is two days before and after that day, and the Shanghai Composite Index is prone to a sharp fall).

Wind real-time monitoring data shows that the petroleum and petrochemical and basic chemical industries have received a net inflow of more than 2 billion yuan of main funds today, while transportation, national defense and military industry, and building decoration have received a net inflow of more than 1 billion yuan. The main capital of the electronics industry has a net outflow of more than 4 billion yuan, the power equipment industry has a net outflow of more than 3 billion yuan, and the computer has a net outflow of more than 2 billion yuan.

For the market outlook, Zhongtai Securities said that the index may show a pattern of "top and bottom, increased volatility". Roughly from a historical point of view, the "volume and price differentiation" stage of the same duration as this round, the improvement of the performance of listed companies still has to wait for the price to improve. The judgment of "bottom" mainly comes from the support of non-fundamental factors, including strict supervision.

China Securities Construction Investment believes that the recent write-off repurchase has ushered in a boom. "Maximization of shareholders' equity" is expected to become an important clue for this round of capital market reform. Write-off buybacks boost stock prices in the short term by reducing outstanding share capital, increasing earnings per share and return on shareholders' equity, and boosting market confidence. The A-share market is ushering in a boom in write-off repurchases, and investors should pay attention to indicators such as low valuation, high repurchase amount ceiling, repurchase ceiling premium ratio, profitability and repurchase time window when paying attention to the investment opportunities of cancellation repurchases.

In terms of hot spots, military stocks collectively bucked the trend today, and the national defense and military sector index remained strong throughout the day.

Jie'an Hi-Tech opened 20% daily limit in seconds; Andawell sealed the board with 20cm for 2 consecutive days, and the stock price hit a new high in the past 3 years; Jieqiang Equipment also had a 20% daily limit; CITIC Haizhi had a daily limit of 4 days in 5 days, and the stock price hit a new high in nearly 9 years; more than 10 shares of Tianqin Equipment and Lihang Technology rose or rose by more than 10%.

On the news side, according to foreign media reports, in the early hours of this morning, an Israeli missile hit a target in Iran. Israel's "Jerusalem Post" reported earlier on the 19th that explosions were heard in the Isfahan region of Iran, Suweida province in southern Syria, the Baghdad region of Iraq and the province of Babylon.

In the context of intensifying geopolitical competition in the world, the modernization of weapons and equipment has become an important part of national defense capacity building, and not only major military powers are paying close attention, but some small and medium-sized countries are also trying to improve their naval combat capabilities. A few days ago, the Netherlands announced plans to spend huge sums of money to upgrade its submarines and improve its defense capabilities, which Dutch Defense Minister Kaisha Olongren called "an important step in strengthening security" on social media platforms.

Soochow Securities said that it is optimistic about the opportunity for the military industry to stabilize and rebound under the over-fall in the early stage, and the medium-term adjustment of various equipment line orders have been signed, and the short-term organization of the military central enterprises to stabilize the stock price under the catalysis of the short-term organization of the stock price action, and the management of private enterprises have announced the increase in holdings, the industry is expected to usher in a sustained market of resurgence of growth and valuation repair.

Israel's attack on Iran also triggered a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. Overnight, Brent crude oil prices soared more than 3%, breaking through the $90 per barrel mark, and WTI crude also stood above $85 per barrel, up nearly 4%.

Today, the main domestic crude oil futures contracts, the main low-sulfur oil futures contracts, and the main fuel oil futures contracts all showed an abnormal upward trend in intraday trading.

AH energy stocks strengthened together, and the A-share oil sector index rose nearly 4%, hitting a new high in nearly 9 years since June 2015. Tongyuan Petroleum and Potential Hengxin have a 20% daily limit, and Quasi-Oil Shares and Heshun Petroleum have a daily limit or rise of more than 10%. CNOOC hit a record high, and PetroChina hit a new high in nearly 9 years.

The combustible ice sector soared by nearly 6%, and Huibopu and Shenkai shares had strong daily limits. Shale gas, natural gas, gas and heating and other related energy sectors also rose strongly, Hubei Yihua, Hongtong Gas and other daily limits. Oil and gas ETFs and oil ETFs both rose more than 3%, ranking among the top 2 ETF gainers today.

The Hong Kong stock energy industry index and the Hang Seng mainland oil index all rose against the trend, with United Energy Group, Huayou Energy, Sunshine Oil Sands, and Sinopec Oil Services leading the gainers.

Shenwan Hongyuan expects that the upstream exploration and development sector will maintain a high prosperity, and the capital expenditure is expected to increase, focusing on recommending high-quality companies in the oil service industry chain, CNOOC and CNOOC Engineering. With the increase in production and operation quality, there is still room for improvement in the performance of crude oil companies, and CNOOC and PetroChina, which have higher dividend yields, are recommended.

In addition, the tension in the Middle East has once again triggered the market's concern about the safety of shipping in the Middle East, and the main contract of European line container shipping futures once soared by more than 15%, hitting a record high. The A-share shipping sector index rose 2%, and Xingtong shares and Phoenix Shipping rose by the limit.