In the wheat market, previously, the wheat spot has stopped falling, Shandong, Hebei and Henan and other places, the mainstream winter wheat producing areas, milling enterprises quotation slightly stable situation, but, from the latest feedback, wheat rose is difficult to get support, the market continued a wide range of falling performance!
At present, the wheat market is facing multiple bearish pressures, which are analyzed as follows:
First, the price difference between wheat and corn is still large, in North China, the price difference is about 350 yuan/ton, the use of wheat is single, the wheat starch lacks cost performance, the market still maintains the "ration" status, and the weakening of the corn market, which also exacerbates the pressure on the wheat market!
At present, the temperature in the north and south of the country has risen sharply, as the saying goes, "rain gives birth to a hundred grains", the arrival of the valley rain solar term, the strong convective weather in the northern region may gradually increase, the conditions for flour storage or will be further deteriorated, the downstream demand for the main body of active hoarding mentality is not high, and the consumer demand is still in the cyclical off-season, the changes in residents' eating habits, the flour terminal is slow, the traders' inventory is consumed, the operating rate of milling enterprises is low, and the consumption level of wheat raw grain is low!
Due to the recession of the breeding industry, the pig production capacity is concentrated, the meat and poultry breeding is concentrated, the feed consumption capacity is poor, and the soybean meal and corn market has weak pressure, which also makes the bran purchase and sale relatively cold, Wudeli and some enterprises in Jinshahe, the price of mixed bran is less than 1400 yuan / ton, which further aggravates the difficulty of making profits of milling enterprises, some enterprises are facing a severe loss situation, and the wheat harvest is more!
Fourth, the local grain depot and the grain storage wheat rotation is still positive, last week, the grain storage listed out of wheat 940,000 tons, this week the wheat rotation level is also at a high level, the spot wheat supply is relatively loose, in particular, the new crop wheat production is expected to be strong, which further exacerbates the rhythm of the surplus grain, from the Hubei new wheat listing only more than a month ago, some institutions predict that the new wheat opening scale price or will be as low as 1.2 ~ 1.25 yuan / catty, spot wheat still has downward pressure!
Therefore, based on many factors in the market, the wheat spot price has not stopped, from the analysis of institutional data, on April 19, the listed price of wheat in the producing area was updated, and the listed price of mainstream enterprises continued to fall!
Shandong: Wucheng Red-crowned Crane fell 0.5 cents to 1.335 yuan, Dezhou Developed Flour East District fell 0.5 cents to 1.335 yuan, Jinan Jinshahe fell 0.5 cents to 1.335 yuan, Heze Huarui fell 0.5 cents to 1.345 yuan, Fenghua Flour fell 1 cent to 1.35 yuan, Liaocheng developed flour fell 0.5 cents to 1.338 yuan, Yucheng Wudeli fell 0.5 cents to 1.335 yuan, Huatong Flour fell 0.3 cents to 1.33 yuan, and Shandong wheat average was 1.346 yuan/jin, the listed price of mainstream enterprises is 1.325~1.37 yuan/jin;
Hebei market: Ningda feed fell 2 cents to 1.32 yuan, Hualong Farm fell 0.5 cents to 1.335 yuan, Baixiang Wudeli fell 0.5 cents to 1.335 yuan, Xiongxian Wudeli fell 1 point to 1.33 yuan, Jinsha Henan fell 0.5 cents to 1.33 yuan, Jinshahe Shahe fell 0.7 cents to 1.33 yuan, Shenzhou Wudeli fell 0.5 cents to 1.335 yuan, Bazhou Yihai Kerry fell 0.5 cents to 1.33 yuan, Handan Wudeli fell 1 point to 1.325 yuan, and Hebei mainstream wheat price was 1.32~1.34 yuan/jin, the average price is about 1.346 yuan/jin!
Henan market: Zhoukou Wudeli fell 0.5 points, the execution price was 1.35 yuan/jin, and the listed price of mainstream wheat in Henan was about 1.31~1.36 yuan/jin!
Personally, I believe that at present, affected by many factors, wheat prices have fallen back, especially, a few days ago, the grain reserves have two-way purchase and sale of wheat, and the transaction price of wheat in some directly affiliated warehouses in Shandong has dropped to 1.31 yuan / catty, which has exacerbated the pessimistic mentality of the market!
However, due to the end of the month is imminent, the downstream market may have a centralized stocking operation a week before the holiday, the short-term operating rate of milling enterprises may rebound, and the wheat market still has the opportunity to stop falling and rebound, however, due to the imminent listing of new wheat, the enthusiasm of the grain storage rotation is higher, and it is expected that after May Day, the wheat market will still have further downward pressure, and the new wheat will gradually enter the level before the merger!
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