In the face of the "deep V" market in the first quarter of this year, a number of active equity funds seized the market rebound window to "line up", actively allocated technology, low-volatility dividends and the resource sector that has continued to strengthen recently, and obtained very considerable excess returns.
Looking ahead to the second quarter, a number of high-performing fund managers said that the economic recovery is expected to increase the willingness of the whole society to consume and the risk appetite of investors. On the one hand, in the context of the continuous decline in risk-free returns, dividend assets are worth paying attention to, and on the other hand, under the trend of continuous expansion of investment in the artificial intelligence industry, the prosperity of computing power-related tracks is expected to continue to improve.
The allocation of the bonus sector is hot
Since the beginning of this year, catalyzed by the continuous strengthening of dividend assets and the market of resource stocks, a number of active equity funds with heavy positions in related assets have achieved very bright returns.
Wind data shows that among the active equity funds that have disclosed their quarterly reports, as of April 17, the well-known fund manager Lan Xiaokang managed the Sino-European Dividend Preferential Flexible Allocation Mix A, the Sino-European Rongheng Balanced Mix A, the fund manager Xu Wenhui's Agricultural Bank of China Research-Driven Hybrid, and the ABC Strategic Income Blend jointly managed by fund managers Zhang Feng and Yao Chenfei, all of which have yielded more than 10% since the beginning of this year.
According to the holdings disclosed in the first quarterly report, as of the end of the first quarter, the top 10 heavy stocks of the China-Europe Dividend Preferential Flexible Allocation Mix covered a number of listed companies of central state-owned enterprises. Compared with the end of 2023, the fund increased its holdings in China Merchants Shipping, Sany Heavy Industry, Huatai Securities, Sinoma International, China National Heavy Duty Truck, China Shipbuilding, Zhaojin Mining, and Jiuli Special Materials in the first quarter. Among them, China National Heavy Duty Truck increased its holdings significantly, doubling the number of positions, and the position ranking jumped from 21st to 7th in one fell swoop.
Image source: Wind - CEIBS Dividend Preferential Flexible Allocation Blend
Another product managed by Lan Xiaokang, Sino-European Rongheng Balanced Mix, increased its holdings of XCMG Machinery by 432,700 in the first quarter, while buying 256,400 new shares of Hualu Hengsheng, and the number of holdings of Sinoma International, Zijin Mining, China Taibao and Sany Heavy Industry remained unchanged.
As of April 17, the two funds' heavy positions of China Merchants Shipping, Shenhuo Shares, Zijin Mining, and CNOOC all rose by more than 40% during the year, and XCMG Machinery, Sinoma International, China National Heavy Duty Truck, China Shipbuilding, and Zhaojin Mining also rose by more than 30%.
From 2021 to 2023, a number of heavy stocks of the two funds gave full play to the dividend advantages of dividend assets. In the past three years, the total cash dividends of CNOOC have reached 147.201 billion yuan, and the total cash dividends of China Pacific Insurance, Yankuang Energy, Zijin Mining and Sany Heavy Industry have also exceeded 10 billion yuan.
ABC's strategic income blending is also due to the fact that in the first quarter, ABC maintained a heavy allocation to low-wave dividend-related sectors such as power, high-speed, consumption, and operators, and achieved excess returns. Combined with the holdings of the first quarter, in the first quarter, the fund significantly increased its holdings in SDIC Power, Sichuan Investment Energy and Daqin Railway, of which the increase in Sichuan Investment Energy and Daqin Railway was more than two times. As of April 17, the fund's heavy positions in Anhui Power and Huadian International have also risen by more than 40% during the year.
The technology sector continues to track
In addition to dividend assets, the other end of the mainstream "dumbbell" allocation strategy during the year was technology companies driven by the AI market. However, due to the recent shocks in the technology sector, the excess returns accumulated by some technology-themed funds have suffered a pullback.
According to the first quarterly report, Debang Xinxing Value Flexible Allocation Hybrid A, which is jointly managed by fund managers Lei Tao, Jie Shiqi and Lu Yang, achieved a return of 8.57% in the first quarter. On January 30, the fund hired Lei Tao as the fund manager, and since then, the product holdings have also been greatly adjusted. Compared with the end of 2023, the top 10 heavy stocks of the fund at the end of the first quarter were all "renovated", from the previous pharmaceutical sector to the TMT sector, which Lei Tao is good at.
As of the end of the first quarter, the fund's top 10 heavy stocks covered a number of concept stocks in the computing sector, including Tianfu Communications, Zhongji Innolight, Xinyisheng, Cambrian, Yunsai Zhilian, Hongxin Electronics, High-tech Development, Runjian Shares, Industrial Fortune Union, and Li Tong Electronics. Compared with the position of Lei Tao's largest product, Debang Semiconductor Industry Hybrid Initiation, at the end of 2023, Yunsai Zhilian, Hongxin Electronics, High-tech Development, Runjian Shares, Industrial Fortune Union, and Li Tong Electronics are all new stocks.
In addition, Soochow Mobile Internet Hybrid, which ranks third in active equity fund performance in 2023 and is managed by Liu Yuanhai, director of equity investment of Soochow Fund, has also disclosed a quarterly report.
Image source: Wind-Soochow Mobile Internet Hybrid
Judging from the holdings at the end of the first quarter, the fund continued the allocation of the AI sector at the end of last year, and increased its positions in Desay SV, Zhongji Innolight, Weir Shares, Lixun Precision, Kingsoft Office, Xin Yisheng, Tianfu Communication, Hudian Shares, and Crystal Optoelectronics, and at the same time newly bought Tuopu Group. As of April 17, stocks such as Tianfu Communication, Zhongji Innolight, Xinyisheng, and Hudian Co., Ltd. have risen by more than 40% during the year, and the annual yield of Soochow Mobile Internet Hybrid A is also close to 9%.
Investment risk appetite is expected to increase
In the first quarterly report, the above-mentioned fund managers also shared their market outlook and allocation ideas for the second quarter.
Zhang Feng and Yao Chenfei said that the current economy is in a state of moderate stabilization, but the overall economic situation is somewhat differentiated, the export situation is currently better, and the external demand is stronger, but domestic real estate sales and real estate prices are still relatively weak, resulting in a weak recovery of the real estate industry chain. Domestic liquidity remained relatively stable. The short-term economic data in the United States is relatively good, and the US dollar index is relatively strong, resulting in short-term pressure on the RMB exchange rate.
In Lan Xiaokang's view, investors' risk appetite is still low, and economic recovery is expected to enhance the consumption willingness of the whole society and the risk appetite of investors. In the context of the continuous decline in risk-free returns, dividend assets are worth paying attention to. "We are optimistic about dividend and resource stocks, and are specifically optimistic about investment opportunities in outstanding companies in nonferrous metals, machinery, coal, petroleum and petrochemical, transportation, construction, banking, non-banking, steel, tourism and catering, media and other industries. ”
In addition, combined with the strong performance of resource stocks in the first quarter, Lan Xiaokang believes that under de-globalization, the macroeconomic aggregate is facing challenges, but the economic structure is more shifted to manufacturing, making physical consumption resilient. The supply of upstream minerals faces many constraints such as lack of investment, environmental protection, and labor, so the high price and high profitability of resources are expected to be maintained for a long time. From a long-term perspective, gold-like assets can both contribute to earnings and potentially protect against the potential risk of high US dollar debt.
In the face of the volatile market of the technology sector, Lei Tao, Jie Shiqi, and Lu Yang expect that under the background trend that domestic and foreign technology giants will continue to expand their investment in the artificial intelligence industry, the prosperity of computing power-related tracks is expected to continue to improve. In addition to exploring AI models with larger parameters and new AI algorithms, computing power cost reduction is also very important for AI development, and new products, technical solutions, and manufacturing processes will be an important focus in the field of computing power.
Reviewer: Dong Fengbin Editor: Ya Wenhui Proofreader: Zhang Jing Producer: Zhang Nan Signed: Sun Hong