Recently, Trump in the US election seems to feel that the victory is in his hands, and he seems to be a little inflated. even claimed that once he took office, he could resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine within 24 hours. On April 7, some US media quoted people familiar with the plan as revealing that Trump had privately said that he could end the war by pressuring Ukraine to give up some territory, and his plan included pushing Ukraine to hand over Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia.
This solution is indeed very much in line with Trump's usual style of doing things, which is to put the United States first in everything when dealing with international affairs, and to abandon it without hesitation as long as it is not related to American interests.
The Washington Post revealed on April 7 that Trump is not just playing tricks, and he has even done a "secret plan" now. The newspaper dug up some details of this "fantastic plan" from sources who had discussed the plan with Trump advisers.
According to the Washington Post, Trump has privately said that he can end the Russia-Ukraine conflict by pressuring Ukraine to abandon territorial claims in Crimea and the border areas of Donbas. Some foreign policy experts have said: "Trump's ideas will bring political benefits to Russian President Vladimir Putin and acquiesce in the use of force to violate internationally recognized borders." ”
The Washington Post reported that Trump is so confident because he believes that Russia and Ukraine "want to save face, both want a way out," and that people in parts of Ukraine are willing to be part of Russia. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. Some of Mr. Trump's allies have been trying to persuade Mr. Trump that his plan could expand Mr. Putin's influence.
In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he would not accept any territorial cession. "Exchanging territory for a ceasefire would put Ukraine in a worse position unless Russia assures that there will be no resumption of hostilities. ”
In an interview with Britain's Channel 4 News in January, Zelenskyy described Trump's boasting as "very dangerous" on the grounds that Trump had no specific postwar arrangements. He said that Trump, as president, could unilaterally make decisions that are unfavorable to Ukraine or its people and try to push those decisions desperately, "which makes me feel a lot of pressure."
Emma Ashford, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, said she described Trump's proposal as "a bad deal."
As a Republican candidate, Trump's approach to administration is clearly very different from Biden's. At the heart of Trump's plan is to pressure Ukraine to give up parts of its territory, especially Crimea and the Donbas region. This plan may seem feasible, but it may not be so easy to put into practice.
First of all, the Crimea and the Donbass region are of great significance for Ukraine, not only as a symbol of territorial integrity, but also as a matter of national security and national feelings. If it goes according to Trump's plan, Ukraine will have to make huge sacrifices. This is undoubtedly a difficult choice for Zelensky's government and people.
Second, the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine have a long history and cannot be resolved overnight. Behind this conflict are deep historical roots and complex entanglements of interests. While Trump's plan may seem simple and effective, there is still much uncertainty about whether it will truly lead to lasting peace.
Finally, it is difficult to say whether Trump's plan will be universally accepted by the international community. Judging from the current situation, as soon as Trump's solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict was exposed, it immediately attracted widespread attention and discussion from the international community. On the one hand, there are fears that this will fuel Russian expansionism, and on the other hand, there are also questions about whether this is in line with international law and the basic principles of international relations.
Some foreign policy experts have said: "Trump's ideas will bring political benefits to Russian President Vladimir Putin and acquiesce in the use of force to violate internationally recognized borders." ”
Experts on Russia believe that the European coalition will resist Trump's plan. Fiona Hill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, was Trump's adviser on Russia and has become a leading critic of Trump. Hill believes that Ukraine and European allies may resist Trump's agreement with Moscow. "Even if the United States wants to reach a unilateral agreement, it will have to rely on European cooperation to make the lifting of sanctions meaningful," she said. ”
In addition, Kiev still controls most of the territory of the four eastern regions of Ukraine, and any attempt to resolve the conflict through territorial concessions is likely to involve a lot of bargaining unless both sides accept the status quo of the territory. As the saying goes, "What you can't get on the battlefield, don't think about at the negotiating table." ”
Recently, Zelensky's attitude towards negotiations has shifted, after Zelensky was that it was impossible to start peace talks unless Russian troops retreated beyond the borders of Ukraine in 1991. The main reasons for the change in Zelensky's attitude are as follows:
1. Without the assistance of the United States and NATO, Ukraine simply cannot survive
Due to the delay in the arrival of military aid from the United States and Western countries to Ukraine, the artillery of the Ukrainian army has been exhausted, which has made the Ukrainian army lose the capital to continue fighting.
2. Strategic delaying tactics
This may also be Zelensky's delaying tactic, using the peace talks to delay time, stabilize Russia first, let Russia relax its vigilance, create a window period for the United States and Western countries to aid Ukraine, and also win time for the Ukrainian army to make strategic adjustments on the battlefield;
3. Recently, the Russian army's offensive has been too fierce, and the Ukrainian army is a little unable to parry
Recently, Ukraine has been attacked by heavy artillery fire by the Russian army, and the target is directly aimed at Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, which makes Zelensky obviously unable to sit still;
4. Zelensky is worried about losing the presidency
It is understood that the presidential elections in Ukraine were originally scheduled for March 31, 2024, but were canceled due to the state of war and general mobilization. And Zelensky himself does not want to vote, because he fears that he will lose the presidency.
Although the presidential election was canceled, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Azarov still said that Zelensky's power would end on May 21. In this context, Zelensky is obviously unwilling to end his hope of being elected as the next president because of the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It is therefore possible to lower the terms of negotiations with a view to ending the war as soon as possible.
However, it cannot be ruled out that Trump's plan has some viability. Because after Trump left office, he pressured congressional Republicans to boycott support for Ukraine. If he re-enters the White House, it will have a major impact on the debate on aid to Ukraine. The Washington Post, citing analysts, believes that if Trump succeeds in blocking further U.S. aid, Ukraine's ability to continue fighting will be weakened.
Zelenskyy said on April 7 that Ukraine would lose the war with Russia if the U.S. Congress failed to approve military aid to Ukraine. Speaking at a meeting of the fundraising platform United24, Zelenskyy said: "The US Congress must be clearly told that if the United States does not help Ukraine, Ukraine will lose the war." Zelensky warned at the meeting: "Without assistance, it will be difficult for the Ukrainian state to survive, and if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, Russia will crave more territory." ”
In fact, Ukraine's ultimate fate is still in its own hands. As Michael Kovman, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, points out: "It is unlikely that the United States, even with its influence, will be able to force the Ukrainian leadership to pursue a 'politically suicidal' policy, and American influence will not be able to force Ukraine to cede territory or make similar concessions."
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