► Central Bank: At present, the balance of RMB loans in mainland China is close to 250 trillion yuan, and the total amount of financial resources is already quite large, and it is of great significance to revitalize the stock of credit to improve the quality and efficiency of financial services for the real economy. In the next stage, the central bank will focus on revitalizing the financial resources that have been inefficiently occupied, continue to strengthen monitoring, pay close attention to the redeposit and relending of corporate loans, and promote the improvement of the efficiency of capital use.
► China Index Institute: Up to now, more than 40 cities across the country have phased out the lower limit of the interest rate on the first home loan. For the future trend of mortgage interest rates. In the short term, the mainland still has room to lower the LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years, and the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year is still there. At the same time, the current price of new homes in some cities is still fluctuating and adjusting.
► Central Bank: From the structural point of view of prices, in addition to looking at the average, there are differences in the loan interest rates of different industries and enterprises, and at the same time, the rise and fall of their product prices are also different, and the actual interest rates felt are different. It is necessary not only to keep the nominal interest rate at a reasonable level, but also to prevent the interest rate from being too low, which will lead to intensified involution competition and capital idling, which will lead to further price reductions and form a bad circle with each other.
Macroeconomic
1. Bureau of Statistics: In March, the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 25-29 in urban areas nationwide excluding school students was 7.2%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of other age groups, the unemployment rate of the labor force aged 16-24 excluding school students in urban areas nationwide was 15.3%, unchanged from the previous month. The unemployment rate of the labor force aged 30-59 in urban areas, excluding school students, was 4.1 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
2. The central bank: take into account the internal and external balance, and coordinate the interest rate and exchange rate of the two types of capital prices. In terms of interest rates, it is necessary to improve the formation, regulation and transmission mechanism of market-oriented interest rates, promote the further marketization of deposit and loan interest rates, stabilize the cost of bank liabilities and net interest margins, and improve the sustainability of financial institutions in supporting the real economy. In terms of exchange rate, it is necessary to adhere to the principle that the RMB exchange rate is mainly determined by the market, and keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable.
3. China Weather Network: Starting on April 18, the central and eastern parts will usher in a new round of large-scale rainfall process, which will last until the day after tomorrow, during which Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, South China, Sichuan Basin and Guizhou and other places have moderate to heavy rain, heavy rain in some areas, local heavy rain, and accompanied by strong convective weather. At the same time, the mainland will cool from north to south, and the feeling of warmth in most of the north will subside briefly.
4. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China: During the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., the United States met with IMF Managing Director Georgieva, and the two sides exchanged views on strengthening cooperation between China and the IMF.
5. South Korean government: Compared with 2020, the willingness of young people in South Korea to have children has increased. More than 65% of respondents under the age of 30 said they had not yet considered childbearing, 19% said they wanted to dink, and nearly one-third of those in the 2020 survey wanted dink.
Real estate dynamics
1. Shanghai: 4 residential plots are located in Pudong New Area, Yangpu District, Minhang District and Songjiang District, with a total area of 15.49 hectares. Among them, the 37-12 plot of Unit Z00-0101, Shanggang Street, Pudong New Area, with an area of 1.25 hectares and a plot ratio of 2.0, is transferred in a composite way of bidding and listing. At the same time, the other 3 land parcels were sold by way of listing. It is planned to issue an announcement on the transfer of this batch of residential land in late April, and organize trading activities in late May.
2. Changsha City, Hunan Province: From April 18, those who buy a new house in the city can enjoy the preferential down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate for the first house in accordance with the policy of "recognising the house but not recognising the loan";
3. The Paper: At the launch event of the first urban village reconstruction project in Guangzhou Development Zone and Huangpu District, the first housing ticket for the urban village reconstruction project in the country was issued to the villagers, and the pilot project of "housing ticket resettlement" will be carried out in an orderly manner in the reconstruction project of five villages and seven urban villages in Huangpu District.
4. Beijing News: The down payment ratio for house purchases on Xiamen Island has been lowered. On April 18, the reporter learned from the Xiamen branch of China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China that the news is indeed true, and the down payment ratio of the first house on Xiamen Island is at least 20%, and the down payment ratio of the second house is at least 30%, which will be implemented from April 17.
5. Economic Observation Network: Cities in the Yangtze River Delta region can handle the withdrawal of provident fund business in different places through the Yangtze River Delta "One Network Office" platform. If the applicant or his or her spouse has a provident fund loan in his or her name, he or she can apply for withdrawing his or her own housing provident fund within the scope of the place of deposit, and the employee can log in to the Yangtze River Delta "One Network Office" platform for processing. The scope of business development will gradually expand from the pilot center to other urban centers, and it is expected that all qualified centers will be connected and operated by the end of October.
6. China Securities Construction Investment: Due to the high base brought by Xiaoyangchun in March 2023, the sales growth rate in the first quarter was under pressure, and the sales area of commercial housing across the country decreased by 19.4% year-on-year, of which the decline in March was 18.3%, 2.2 percentage points narrower than that from January to February. Recently, Hangzhou, Beijing, Zhengzhou, Nanjing and other cities have continued to introduce easing policies, because the city's continuous efforts are expected to provide support for sales to stop falling and stabilize. In March, the industry investment and capital fell significantly, and the downward pressure is expected to be eased with the active promotion of the financing coordination mechanism and the three major projects.
Stock market stock
1. On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3074.22 points, up 0.09%, with a turnover of 441.432 billion. The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 9376.81 points, down 0.05%, with a turnover of 508.191 billion. The GEM index was reported at 1787.49 points, down 0.55%, with a turnover of 205.379 billion. Overall, individual stocks fell more and rose less, and more than 3,100 stocks in the whole market fell. The turnover of the two cities was 949.6 billion, an increase of 31.1 billion from the previous trading day. On the disk, flying cars, small household appliances, metal copper, humanoid robots and other sectors were among the top gainers, while ST plates, oil and gas, electric power, environmental protection and other sectors were among the top decliners. Northbound funds sold a net of 5.285 billion yuan throughout the day, including a net sale of 1.533 billion yuan in Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and a net sale of 3.752 billion yuan in Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect.
2. On Thursday, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.82% to 16,385.87 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.5% to 3,356.82. The state-owned enterprises index rose 0.94% to 5,803.86 points. On the disk, commercial banks, semiconductors, building materials, beverages, pharmaceuticals, food additives, domestic insurance stocks, aviation stocks and other sectors were among the top gainers, while communication equipment, machinery manufacturing, electricity, information security and other sectors were among the top decliners. Keep rose more than 12%, Ping An of China and Dongfang Selection rose more than 4%, Xpeng Motors rose more than 3%, and Laikai Pharmaceutical fell nearly 7%. Southbound funds bought a net of HK$6.638 billion. Among them, Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shanghai) net bought HK $3.884 billion, and Hong Kong Stock Connect (Shenzhen) net bought HK $2.754 billion.
3. As of April 18, there were 248 listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange, and there were no new ones on the same day. The total market value was 343.088 billion yuan, and the transaction value was 5.959 billion yuan.
4. Financing balance of the two cities: As of April 17, the financing balance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 788.806 billion yuan, an increase of 2.573 billion yuan from the previous trading day, the financing balance of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was 700.608 billion yuan, an increase of 2.170 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and the total of the two cities was 1489.414 billion yuan, an increase of 4.743 billion yuan from the previous trading day.
5. CITIC Securities: Since 2024, in the context of the decline in total growth, the structure of the deposit market has also shown the characteristics of "stable retail and weak to the public", "stable for large banks and weak for small banks", corresponding to the local differences in the recent industrial boom and credit delivery. In terms of sector investment, affected by factors such as repricing, it is expected that the bank's performance in the first quarter will be a relatively low point in the whole year.
6. Securities Times: Illegal stock speculation by practitioners ushered in strong supervision. It is necessary to be aware of the seriousness of the problem of illegal stock speculation by practitioners, and build a long-term mechanism for "not daring, cannot, and not wanting to" illegal stock speculation. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Association, and the local securities regulatory bureaus have all released clear signals to strictly investigate and crack down on illegal stock speculation by practitioners.
7. Finance Associated Press: In March, securities firms, their branches and securities practitioners received a total of 15 fines of various regulatory penalties, and a total of 10 securities firms and 7 related practitioners were punished, including 8 investment banking business and 6 brokerage business. In the same month, there was one issuance and listing application document and information disclosure document signed by the sponsor representative for a limited period of time. From January to March, a total of 159 fines were issued.
8. EVE: In 2023, the operating income will be 48.784 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.38%, and the net profit will be 4.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.42%, and the company plans to distribute 5 yuan in 10.
9. Qingyun Technology: The company's holding subsidiary, Beijing Qingyun Intelligent Computing Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Qingyun Intelligent Computing"), signed the "Computing Service Contract" with the customer, with a total contract cost of 170 million yuan (tax included). The main transaction content is that Qingyun Intelligent Computing uses the company's AI intelligent computing platform to provide customers with computing power, computing power management, scheduling, resource integration and management, and diversified heterogeneous computing power support.
10. Chunguang Technology (5 boards): Shareholder Fang Xiubao intends to reduce his holdings of no more than 0.5071% of the company's shares.
11. Salt Lake Co., Ltd.: On April 18, the company received the "Notification Letter" from Qinghai State Investment Corporation, the controlling shareholder of the company, which is planning to carry out strategic cooperation in the salt lake industry with China Minmetals Corporation, and the two sides will jointly build a world-class salt lake industrial base. The plan has not yet been finalized and needs to be approved by the relevant authorities.
12. Donghua Software: Donghua Yundu Technology Co., Ltd., a holding subsidiary of the company, and Beijing Donghua Hechuang Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plan to jointly invest 100 million yuan with self-raised funds to establish "Donghua Zhongya Yundu Technology Co., Ltd."
13. Hesheng shares: signed the "Investment Agreement" with the Management Committee of Yibin Sanjiang New Area. This agreement was reached by both parties through consultation, and it was decided to invest in the construction of Yibin Hesheng new energy vehicle high-end parts project in Yibin Sanjiang New Area, with an estimated total investment of 1.5 billion yuan.
Wealth Spotlight
1. Shanghai Futures Exchange: Starting from the trading on April 22 (that is, the evening trading on April 19), the transaction fee for the closing of the gold futures AU2406 contract will be adjusted to 30 yuan/lot. The transaction fee for gold futures AU2408 contract is adjusted to 6 yuan/lot. The trading fee for the silver futures AG2408 contract is adjusted to 0.3/10,000 of the transaction amount.
2. Shanghai Securities News: Many banks are "generous" to increase bond investment. In 2023, the scale of bond investment of most listed banks will increase year-on-year, and the transaction volume of bond investment of many banks will increase by more than 20%. As the proportion of profit contribution from bond investment continues to increase, the trend of banks increasing their investment in bonds in 2024 is also becoming more obvious.
3. China Securities News: This year, the investment income of non-ferrous metal stocks is the highest, and the core logic lies in the rise in raw material prices. Although in the short term, the speculation of the British and US restrictions on Russian metal events has cooled down, and the prices of non-ferrous metals have been adjusted at a high level, but benefiting from the recovery of the global manufacturing industry, the new impetus brought by domestic and foreign economic policy stimulus, and the good news of some categories such as copper production cuts, there is still room for prices to rise in the future.
4. Shanghai Securities News: The pricing interest rate of insurance products may continue to decline in the future. Against this backdrop, insurers have taken a variety of measures to respond to regulatory requirements and respond to the challenges brought about by the rapidly changing external environment. However, in view of the common challenges of low interest rates currently faced by the industry, the management of insurance companies believes that it is necessary to adjust their business thinking and improve their accurate pricing capabilities in order to truly survive the period of low interest rates.
5. Financial breakfast: hot spots are non-stop, track what you want to hear. In March, there have been frequent disturbances in the supply of pulp, and the Finnish strike has caused the local port to be suspended, how big is the impact of this incident? As a strong cyclical industry, is the destocking stage of papermaking almost over? Is the pulp price expected to maintain a strong trend in the second quarter? Quickly row to the end of the article to view today's financial secretary tracking #Pulp current price all the way "soaring"
Industry Watch
1. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: As of the end of March, a total of 3.647 million 5G base stations have been built across the country, the penetration rate of 5G users has exceeded 60%, 24.56 million ports with gigabit network service capabilities, and the world's first 400G all-optical inter-provincial backbone network link has been officially put into commercial use.
2. Immigration Administration: In the first quarter, a total of 6.357 million ordinary passports, 24.987 million endorsements for travelling to and from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and 724,000 mainland (mainland) permits for Hong Kong and Macao residents were issued, up 24.1%, 30.5% and 19.9% year-on-year respectively.
3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: In the first quarter, China's 5G mobile phone shipments reached 56.43 million units, accounting for 83.7% of mobile phone shipments in the same period. In terms of industry applications, 5G applications have been integrated into 74 of the 97 major categories of the national economy, and have been promoted on a large scale in key areas such as industry, mining, electric power, and medical care, with more than 10,000 "5G + Industrial Internet" projects.
4. CCTV Finance: As the weather gradually warms, crayfish are on the market one after another. At present, the price of crayfish is much cheaper than the price of 50 yuan a catty when it was first listed in March. According to the experience of previous years, if the public wants to buy crayfish at a single-digit price, they need to wait until May.
5. The Paper: Recently, the research team of the laboratory cooperated with Tsinghua University and the Shanghai Institute of Microsystem and Information Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences to develop a gallium nitride quantum light source chip for the first time in the world, which is also another important progress made by the "Ginkgo No. 1" metro quantum Internet research platform of the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, and the relevant results were published in the "Physical Review Letters".
6. Ministry of Education: Colleges and universities should plan to add majors in advance according to the needs of economic and social development, the urgent needs of regional development, their own school-running positioning, school-running conditions, etc. Provincial-level education administrative departments should guide colleges and universities to increase the number of majors related to strategic emerging industries, majors that are urgently needed for regional development, build specialty groups with special advantages, and eliminate majors that do not conform to economic and social development and the school's positioning.
7. Lei Jun, Chairman and CEO of Xiaomi Group: Some netizens think that Xiaomi SU7 is not cost-effective enough, pure electric car companies are basically not profitable, and there is an outrageous one with a loss of more than 100,000 yuan. Don't talk about cost performance in an industry with huge losses, pure electric cars are basically loss-making. It's too early to say whether Xiaomi cars will be successful, but the first phase is a success.
8. Rene Haas, CEO of Arm: The huge demand for computing power in AI is threatening the supply of energy, requiring the industry to change its approach to technology. By 2030, global data centers will use more electricity than India, the world's most populous country.
Company news
1. TSMC: In the first quarter, sales were NT$592.64 billion, up 16.5% year-on-year, and net profit was NT$225.5 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year.
2. Yang Yuanqing, Chairman of Lenovo Group: It is expected that the global market share of AI PC will be 10% this year. In the next quarter, the proportion of AI PCs in Lenovo China will reach 50%, and the full year will reach 80%.
3. Huawei Xu Zhijun: The expectation is that when the Mate70 is sold this year, it will be able to go public with 'pure-blooded' Hongmeng, which is also the goal of efforts.
Global vision
1. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry: It will provide subsidies totaling 72.5 billion yen (about 470 million U.S. dollars) to five Japanese companies to build artificial intelligence supercomputers, aiming to reduce dependence on U.S. technology. It is reported that Sakura Internet, Japanese telecom giant KDDI, GMO Internet, Rutilea and Highreso will receive government subsidies of 50.1 billion, 10.2 billion, 1.9 billion, 2.5 billion and 7.7 billion yen, respectively.
2. European Automobile Manufacturers Association: EU car sales in March hit the biggest decline in 16 months, and Tesla's new car registrations in the EU fell by 30%. Battery electric vehicle registrations fell 11% to 13,400 units, and the market share of battery electric vehicles fell to 13% from 14% in the same period last year.
Financial data
domestic
1. State Administration of Foreign Exchange: In March, banks settled 1,306.1 billion yuan of foreign exchange, sold 1,424.2 billion yuan, and had a deficit of 118.1 billion yuan. From January to March, banks settled a total of 3,851.4 billion yuan in foreign exchange, sold 4,027.6 billion yuan in foreign exchange, and had a deficit of 176.2 billion yuan.
2. New Third Board: On April 18, a total of 6,195 companies were listed, a decrease of 2 on the same day, with a turnover of 189 million. The three-board component index was reported at 849.37, up 0.51%, with a turnover of 106 million.
3. Domestic commodity futures: As of the close of the afternoon of April 18, most of them rose. Soda ash rose by more than 9%, container shipping European line rose by more than 6%, Shanghai tin, iron ore rose by more than 3%, Shanghai copper, international copper rose by more than 2%, alumina, methanol rose by more than 1%, styrene, eggs, etc. rose slightly; LU fuel oil and crude oil fell by more than 3%, pulp, industrial silicon, etc. fell by more than 1%, staple fiber, Shanghai gold, etc. fell slightly.
4. Treasury bonds: On April 18, the main 2-year treasury bond futures contract TS2406 rose 0.07% to 101.718, the main 5-year treasury bond futures contract TF2406 rose 0.16% to 103.530, and the main 10-year treasury bond futures contract T2406 rose 0.15% to 104.610. The 10-year Treasury bond rate fell 0.71bp to 2.25%, and the 10-year CDB bond rate fell 1.26bp to 2.32%.
5. Shanghai International Energy Exchange: On April 18, the main crude oil futures contract 2406 closed at 642.4 yuan / barrel, down 20.9 yuan, or 3.15%. All contracts traded 179203 lots, and open interest decreased by 2,133 lots to 60,394 lots. The main contract traded 143139 lots, and the open interest decreased by 302 lots to 34,908 lots.
6. Central Bank: On April 18, a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 2 billion yuan was carried out, and the winning interest rate was 1.8%, the same as before. Due to the expiration of 2 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase on the same day, zero investment and zero withdrawal were achieved on the same day.
7. Shibor: 1.7760% overnight, up 5.30 basis points. The 7-day is at 1.8360%, up 2.00 basis points. The three-month report was 2.0410%, down 0.80 basis points.
8. RMB: The onshore yuan closed at 7.2390 against the US dollar at 16:30, down 0.0567%, and the central price of the RMB was reported at 7.1020, up 0.0070%.
9. Shanghai Environmental Exchange: On April 18, the trading volume of the carbon emission allowance listing agreement in the national carbon market was 120001 tons, with a turnover of 11.0901 million yuan and a closing price of 92.62 yuan / ton, up 2.25%.
abroad
10. Asia: The Nikkei 225 index rose 0.31% to 38,079.70 points. South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.95% to 2,634.76.
11. U.S. stocks: The Dow closed up 0.06% at 37,775.38, the Nasdaq closed down 0.52% at 15,601.50, and the S&P 500 closed down 0.22% at 5,011.12.
12. Europe: Britain's FTSE 100 closed up 0.37% at 7,877.05 points, Germany's DAX30 closed up 0.38% at 17,837.40 points, and France's CAC 40 closed up 0.52% at 8,023.26 points.
13. Gold: COMEX gold futures closed up 0.25% at $2,394.40 an ounce.
14. Crude oil: WTI crude oil futures settled up 0.05% at $82.73 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures settled down 0.21% at $87.11 per barrel.
15. Baltic Dry Bulk Index: up 3.09% to 1901 points.
· 纸浆现价一路“狂飙”·
► Orient Securities: At present, there are many unplanned shutdowns in the world, such as the Finnish strike that led to the suspension of local ports, which in turn led to the suspension of production of Finnish pulp and paper mills, and the explosion of Kemi plant once again exacerbated the shortage of pulp supply, triggering a new round of price increases in global trade pulp, and domestic pulp futures and spot prices have also risen all the way. Considering that pulp is a long-term variety, it is estimated that the arrival of pulp in the second quarter will still decline, which will form a certain support for pulp prices. It is estimated that Finland will reduce production by a total of 586,500 tons as of April 8, and there will be a reduction of 160,000 tons of softwood pulp imports in the second quarter. The leading enterprises of wood pulp products have also issued price adjustment notices one after another, with a range of 200-300 yuan/ton.
► Zhongtai Securities: The smooth price increase in Europe has led to the rise of domestic pulp prices. Since the fourth quarter of '23, the slope of pulp price increase in the European market has been higher than that of the Chinese and American markets, and the pulp prices in Europe and the United States have been higher than those in the Chinese market. Judging from Suzano's quotation, from January to March 24, the monthly quotation in the European market was raised by $80, while the Chinese market was raised by $10-30, with a cumulative increase in Europe> North America > China. In addition to downstream demand factors, the smooth increase in pulp prices in Europe and the United States is also affected by inflation (under the influence of inflation, downstream paper mills will be more smooth). The price difference between the European and American markets and the Chinese market has caused pulp mills to increase the proportion of shipments to Europe and the United States, which has played a leading role in the pulp price in the Chinese market.
► Bureau of Statistics: From January to February 2024, the national output of machine-made paper and cardboard was 22.416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, continuing the strong growth trend since the second half of 2023. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, January to February is a relatively small month for the paper industry, and the output in January and February 2024 will exceed that of 2022, a record high, and the operating income of the paper and paper products industry will be 213.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, and the total profit will be 6.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 336.7%. The total loss of loss-making enterprises in the paper and paper products industry was 3.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 40.6%. A number of key indicators show that the mainland paper and paper products industry will maintain a strong growth trend in early 2024.
► Guosen Securities: The bottom of the paper industry is recovering, waiting for the cycle to reverse. Paper is a strong cyclical industry, since October 2008 the industry has experienced 4 rounds of complete cycles, since March 2022 this round of destocking has lasted about 26 months, reference history of active + passive destocking cycle is mostly 15-25 months. On the demand side, although the overall downstream demand is still relatively light, it is difficult to say that the economy has reversed, but the demand has recovered since 2023H2. It can be judged that the current papermaking cycle has been in the stage of passive destocking, and considering that this round of destocking has lasted for 2 years, it is judged that the current papermaking industry may be at the critical point from passive destocking to active replenishment, and pay attention to the valuation repair and performance elasticity of leading enterprises.