On April 16, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to announce that the GDP in the first quarter of 2024 will be 296299 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% year-on-year and 1.6% quarter-on-quarter.
That is to say, on the whole, the mainland's economy is showing a steady and positive development trend, but in connection with reality, it will be believed that the Chinese people may have to live a "tight life" for a period of time.
Why?
First, housing prices continue to fall
Although "it is difficult to buy a house" is a major concern for many young people, and the lower the house price, the better, but for those who rely on real estate investment to earn income, the continuous decline in house prices is not necessarily a good thing.
According to reports, in March 2024, the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities in mainland China fell by 0.1% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year.
Second-hand residential sales prices fell by 0.7% month-on-month and by 7.3% year-on-year.
In fact, as early as the beginning of this year, there was speculation about whether house prices would continue to fall, and most people answered in the affirmative.
Some industry experts even asserted: "The golden age of real estate has passed, and people will become cautious when buying houses." ”
People do not dare to buy a house easily, firstly, because in recent years, the growth rate of residents' income has been relatively slow, and due to the change of thinking, the number of people who just need it has decreased, and many young people no longer regard buying a house as a necessary thing.
Second, because of the continuous transmission of negative news such as real estate delivery and real estate thunderstorms, people's confidence in the industry has weakened, and even if they have plans to buy a house, they are cautious.
Therefore, in a short period of time, people's willingness to buy houses has decreased as a whole, housing prices have continued to fall, and the return on investment of real estate companies is at a low level.
In other words, for many families with two or more homes, it is an unpredictable question of when they will be able to turn things around.
Second, prices are rising again
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in January 2024, the national consumer price rose by 0.3% month-on-month, and the increase expanded compared with the previous month.
Among them, food prices and service prices rose significantly, at 0.4%.
In recent years, the term "rising prices" has never seemed to have left people's perceptions, and the general impression is that many things are getting more and more expensive, and some are even too expensive to buy.
However, the rise in prices is not limited to our country, and the general trend in the world seems to be the same, according to the report released on April 17, prices in the United States have also maintained an upward trend.
The rise in prices is related to domestic monetary policy and the international situation. In the past two years, local wars have broken out in many places, international trade has been subject to political restrictions, and the lives of ordinary people have inevitably been affected.
Rising prices mean an increase in the cost of living, and when income growth is slow, life will feel tight.
Third, the real economy has not fully recovered
The previous new crown epidemic has dealt a certain blow to the mainland's real economy, so achieving the recovery of the real economy is an important task of the mainland's economic work in the past two years.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter of 2024, the mainland's industrial recovery is in good condition, which also reflects the positive development trend of the real economy from the side.
However, due to various reasons, such as the impact of the international situation on import and export trade, people's consumption willingness fluctuations after the epidemic, and rising rents, it may take some time for the real economy to fully recover.
Fourth, the employment situation is grim
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the surveyed unemployment rate in mainland China's urban areas averaged 5.2 percent, down from the same quarter last year, but even so, the employment situation is worrying.
For recruiters, there are many jobs that are not very "decent" in the secular sense, such as sales, waiters, workshop workers, couriers, etc.
From the perspective of job seekers, these jobs are too hard and tiring, and they lack the necessary welfare guarantees, even if they are willing to take off "Kong Yiji's long shirt", the wages earned are not worth the labor required.
Even in order to escape the employment problem, "postgraduate examination" and "public examination" are sought after by more and more people, and many people think that one is not to participate in the fierce social competition, and the other is to avoid being eliminated by the cruel workplace in the future.
Resources:
Shanghai Statistics "Housing Prices in 70 Cities in March 2024 Released!"
Xiaokang Magazine "Where is China's property market heading in 2024?"
National Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Prices Rose 0.3% MoM in January 2024
Xinhua Daily Telegraph "How to stabilize China's employment market?"
China Youth Network "GDP in the first quarter of 2024 increased by 5.3% year-on-year, a good start"