On April 17, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrsky, said in an interview with a reporter from the American media CNN that the Russian army intends to take control of Chasov Yar before Victory Day on May 9.
At the moment, the focus of Chasov Yar is still on the direction of the southern route T0504. The topography here has certain advantages for the Russian army, both in terms of height and cover. In addition, the Ukrainian army is still relatively tough in this direction, and the blocking of the highway section is still relatively tough in terms of the current situation, which is a lifeline for both sides.
The Russian army is increasing its forces and preparing to open up here, and if it enters the west of the Donbass Canal, then the pressure on the Ukrainian army in Krishyivka and Andreyivka will increase dramatically, and it will become inevitable to shrink the front.
At the same time, this pair of Chasov Yar will form a situation of encirclement on the southern front.
On the other hand, after crossing the Donbass Canal, it entered the sorghum zone on the periphery of the southern line of Bakhmut, and if it is hit in this direction, the situation in Krishyivka-Andreyivka is not only unfavorable to the Ukrainian army, but also equivalent to the Russian army pressing from the north to the Bila Hora section of the intermediate node of Constantinovka-Dzerzhinsk on the Don River.
At that time, the Dzerzhinsk-Don Constantinovka line of communication will be cut off. Coupled with the offensive of the Russian army in the New York segment in the direction of Gerlovka east of Avadiivka, the tail of the long serpentine formation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Twin Cities will be the first to be fully exposed.
In addition, the loss of the tail (Dzerzhinsk) will inevitably lead to the final cutting off of a section of the line of communication between Constantinorovka and the Red Army village on the Don River, and may eventually lead to a breakthrough of the Russian army into the rear of the defense line of the Twin Cities. Form a situation of internal and external attack.
Therefore, looking at the situation on the entire Bakhmut-Avadiivka front, it is speculated that the situation north of Avadiivka will play a catalytic role. In particular, after the defense line of Novokalinov (Kramik)-Olechedine is broken by the Russian army, the Russian army will advance to the west and north to gain the most tactical initiative.
To the northwest, only about 10 kilometers from the T0504 highway, to the north along H20 will be to flank the Ukrainian army in the direction of Dzerzhinsk from the west.
In short, judging from the current situation as a whole, the advantage is clearly in Russia. The effectiveness of Ukraine's defense will be crucial in this area. #春日生活打卡季#