In recent days, starting with the sharp depreciation of the yen, the major currencies of Asia have been making a lot of noise, who else can make such a big battle? What exactly do they want to do?
Some people say that no matter how they toss around, the goal of the United States can always be us. So what will they do next, what kind of situation will we face, and how will we deal with it?
I have to say that as the only financial superpower in the world, the Americans are quite clever in finance.
If we look at the recent series of important events, we will find that they are linked one by one, the layout is exquisite, and the ferocity of the killing moves is breathtaking.
Things should start with the Fed's interest rate meeting on March 20.
Since then, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speeches have obviously been too intensive, and in just over 20 days, he has made it clear that he will not cut interest rates four times, each time being more hawkish.
The first was a speech after the interest rate meeting on March 21, the second was at the San Francisco Fed on March 29, the third was at Stanford University on April 3, and the fourth was at an economic forum on April 17.
On April 5, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that nonfarm payrolls surged by 303,000 in March, the largest increase since May last year.
On April 10, they released data again, showing that the CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year in March, the highest level since September 2023.
In less than a month, things have changed dramatically, all moving in the direction of the Fed canceling its plan to cut interest rates this year.
After deciding not to cut interest rates this year, the Americans began to take action.
During the week of April 2, the big dollar bears gathered in Japan, ready to go, but not yet.
At that time, net yen shorts held by US dollar leveraged funds and asset managers soared to 148388, the highest level since January 2007.
From April 4 to 9, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited China as a last-ditch effort, and it is likely to be an ultimatum.
In the week of April 10, they began to short-sell the yen on a large scale, and in just a few days on April 16, the yen fell below the major mark of 154, and Japanese government bonds and the stock market also dragged them down.
At this time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was still enjoying the status of a state guest in the United States. In the absence of the prime minister, Japan has no leader, and everything works together seamlessly.
Then, on April 17, the South Korean won, the Vietnamese dong, the Indonesian rupiah, and the Indian rupee all fell below records, and major Asian currencies fell sharply across the board.
At the same time, the big US dollar bears tentatively attacked the offshore RMB market in Hong Kong, and we immediately alerted and raised the overnight call rate to 6.3%, and the bears returned with a feather.
Also on 10 April, Fitch downgraded our sovereign credit rating outlook.
A lot of people didn't figure out what was going on at the time, and some people even said that we did have a debt problem, and Fitch made sense to do that, and so on.
Fitch was quick to slap in the face, proving that they were prepared. On April 17, they downgraded the outlook of six more state-owned banks to negative, while downgrading Tencent and Alibaba to negative.
Don't tell me, I don't know what they do with Tencent and Alibaba, these are two mobile payment tools for hundreds of millions of users in China, and they are closely tied to the financial system.
This is the targeted sniping of our core financial system! At this point, the hearts of Americans are known to passers-by.
This series of strikes is like a storm, what do the Americans want to do?
In the face of the violent interest rate hike by the US dollar, the exchange rate is the first line of defense for all countries.
Therefore, if the dollar wants to harvest the world's wealth, the core is to first break through the exchange rate defense of other countries, then the financial and capital markets, then the real estate, and finally the industrial assets.
In the past two years, major Asian currencies, including the yen, have worked together to maintain exchange rate stability, and no large-scale interest rate hikes have harmed the economy, let alone a exchange rate and debt crash like the 1998 Asian financial crisis.
At the heart of this is the role of the renminbi and the yen.
The renminbi and the yen have not followed the US dollar interest rate hike, which objectively leads to the flow of cheap currencies and US dollar foreign exchange from these two large countries to neighboring Asian countries, so this round of US dollar interest rate hikes, although Asia also lacks liquidity, but it is far from the point of collapse.
Last year, many people said that now both sides are holding on to the death, to see who can't hold on first and falls.
By April of this year, it seemed that the Americans could not hold on for the first time and launched an extremely risky final battle!
In this war, the Americans must achieve three important goals and force the dollar to continue its life.
First, it will harvest the wealth of Asia and alleviate the crisis of the United States itself; second, it will raise the dollar index to create conditions for the dollar to cut interest rates and prevent the danger of collapse when the interest rate is cut; and third, it will use thunderous means to force us to yield.
As long as we are willing to cooperate and are willing to work together to save the dollar, and even help reset the dollar system, then the dollar can be reborn as it was in the 1970s.
In the 1970s, the Americans forcibly dismantled the Bretton Woods system, harvested Japan's real estate and chip industries, and signed the Plaza Accord with developed country allies, only to rebuild the new dollar system with the dollar and US debt as the core, and extended the dollar's life for 50 years.
This time, we have become the second largest economy in the world, and if we want to rebuild the dollar system again, it is obvious that only the allies of the developed countries will not be able to do it, and we must have our participation.
So do you think we will give in this time? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area to discuss.