After the Spring Festival, pig prices "off-season is not light", in March, the market bucked the trend and strengthened, the average price of live pigs rose from 13.52 yuan/kg to 15.26 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs rose by about 12.5% in stages......
The logic of the rise in pig prices is relatively clear, roughly as follows:
On the one hand, at the end of last year, the pig farm disease was severe, and the supply of suitable weight pigs in March was insufficient, in particular, the price of live pigs 2403 contract before the Spring Festival was too low, and the market was bearish on the prospects after the year.
On the other hand, the price of piglets has risen sharply, the market for the long-term pig price bullish mentality has become stronger, the enthusiasm of the second fattening supplement column has increased, the breeding end of the slaughter is not large, and the sentiment of the pressure bar is strong, in particular, the price difference of the standard fertilizer is larger, and the mentality of the market is higher!
Therefore, with the support of many parties, pig prices bucked the trend in March, but in April, the trend of pig prices gradually weakened!
The root cause is that the temperature continues to rise, the demand for pork consumption has further weakened, the price spread of the standard fertilizer has gradually loosened, and the phenomenon of inversion has appeared in many places, the support of the second breeding has weakened, and the confidence in entering the market has been lost, and the breeding end of the large pig subscription mentality has become stronger, and the pace of pig slaughter has accelerated, however, the demand is insufficient, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the recent pig price has shown a situation of more than one decline, after the Qingming holiday, the average price of domestic pigs has fallen from 15.25 yuan / kg to 14.95 yuan / kg!
According to the latest official news, in the first quarter of 24, the official data of pig production capacity was announced, of which, at the end of the first quarter, the sow inventory level was 39.92 million, and the sow inventory was 7.3% year-on-year, however, compared with 43.9 million at the end of December 22, the cumulative sow inventory was as high as 9.07%, compared with 40.42 million in February, a decrease of 500,000 heads, a decrease of 1.23%, compared with the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the sow inventory decreased by 1.5 million!
Sow inventory affects the level of pig slaughter after 10 months, according to the rhythm of sow inventory depletion, rationally, into the third quarter, the pig supply pattern or will be reversed, therefore, in 2024, pig prices or will present a "near weak and far strong" situation!
In the second quarter, 4~6 months, the prospect of pig prices may be dominated by "falling first and then rising"! In April, pig prices showed a weak and stable situation, at the end of April, supported by the festival to become stronger, the price or have a slight opportunity to increase!
In May, during the long holiday, pig prices were supported by the festive atmosphere, and the price may maintain a weak and stable trend, but after the holiday, with the consumption inertia falling, the temperature will further rise, superimposed, and the supply pressure of large pigs at the breeding end will increase, and the pig price may be weak!
In June, the pressure on the supply of pig prices and pigs will gradually reduce, the rhythm of large-weight pigs slaughter may slow down, the market for the third quarter bullish confidence or will be enhanced, the breeding end of the pressure bar under the support of the price, superimposed, some slaughtering enterprises or have the operation of partitioning and warehousing, pig prices or will fall first and then rise, the price center of gravity gradually rises!
In the third quarter, 7~9 months, affected by the removal of sow inventory, the supply level of standard pigs reversed, and the market bullish outlook mentality became stronger, and the mentality of reluctance to sell increased in the barn!
In July, pig prices maintained a volatile and high situation, and the average price of domestic pigs may rise into the "8 yuan era"!
In 8~9 months, the support of consumption has gradually improved, the bullish sentiment on the breeding end has become stronger, and the center of gravity of pig prices has further rebounded, especially in early September, students return to school and the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day are approaching, the market price operation is strong, and the center of gravity of pig prices is expected to rise into the "9 yuan era", and some high-priced areas, pig prices are expected to "break 10"!
In the fourth quarter, 10~12 months!With the double festival good cash, the demand for a short period of cooling, pig prices or will fluctuate lower, in October, pig prices are mainly stable and weak, and the price has a slight pullback pressure!11~In December, with the gradual recovery of consumer demand in the south, the demand for pickled meat in many places, the center of gravity of pig prices or will rebound again, in particular, about 10 days before and after the winter solstice, the southern pickled meat enters the peak season, and the trend of pig prices may be further strengthened, however, the group's live pig enterprises slaughter impulse at the end of the year, the height of pig price rise or will not be as high as the third quarter!
Therefore, from a rational point of view, pig prices in the third quarter of 24 are expected to hit the high point of the year, around September, pig prices or will rise into the "9 yuan era", and pig prices in some areas may rise above 10 yuan / catty!
However, due to the many factors affecting pig prices, such as pig disease, consumer demand and production capacity optimization at the breeding end, in particular, the current pace of sow inventory is accelerating, however, the proportion of high-quality binary sows in the market is at a high level, and the sow production level is high, which may put some pressure on the prospect of pig prices in the third and fourth quarters!
In addition, some institutions show that in March, although the official statistics of sow inventory fell sharply compared with February, however, some group pig enterprise sow inventory has signs of rebound, which has an adverse impact on the long-term pig price prospects, in particular, 25 years of pig price performance or will not be satisfactory......