On April 18, the steel spot market was dominated by rises, and the main varieties of the futures market all rose, including iron ore rose 3.07%, with an outflow of 647 million, and thread reduced positions by 103,200 hands, with an outflow of 623 million. Steel inventories continue to deplete, and cost support increases, steel prices...
1. Analysis of long and short factors
1. The National Development and Reform Commission will accelerate the implementation of measures such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds
On April 17, at the macroeconomic situation and policy conference held by the State Council Information Office, the National Development and Reform Commission said that it would accelerate the implementation of measures such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, strengthen the guidance of expectations, and enhance market confidence; The slow issuance of bonds in the first quarter suppressed the demand for steel, and the second quarter is expected to accelerate, and the demand for steel is expected to continue to recover, which is good for steel prices.
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2. Central bank: There is still room for future monetary policy
On the afternoon of April 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, at which Zhu Hexin, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China and director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said that the proportion of loans in the first quarter of this year is returning to the historical average, so it also leaves room for credit growth in the next three quarters. He also said that there is still room for monetary policy in the future, and we will closely observe the effect of the policy, the recovery of the economy, and the achievement of the target, and make good use of reserve tools at the right time. There is still a lot of room for the implementation of the mainland's monetary policy, and there is a greater possibility of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, which is conducive to stabilizing market confidence and improving the trend of steel prices.
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3. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Implement support policies such as large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods
On April 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the development of industry and information technology in the first quarter of 2024, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that it will implement support policies such as large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, guide enterprises, parks, and key industries to fully implement a new round of green and low-carbon technological transformation and upgrading, accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the product structure, energy consumption structure, and raw material structure of traditional industries and process reengineering, and enhance industrial competitiveness. Recently, the trade-in policy has continued to be introduced, which has boosted market confidence, which is conducive to increasing steel demand and good steel prices.
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Second, today's steel market
1. Spot market
Today's domestic steel market is mainly rising, and the trading volume is relatively average.
2. The main force of futures
In terms of futures, as of the close, all the main forces of all varieties rose.
3. Steel mill price adjustment
According to incomplete statistics, 25 steel mills raised the ex-factory price of building materials today, with a range of 20-100 yuan/ton. The details are as follows:
1. Fujian Sangang: the price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 100 yuan/ton.
2. Masteel: The price of thread, wire rod and coil snail was raised by 50 yuan/ton.
3. Jiangsu Nangang: the price of thread was raised by 50 yuan/ton.
4. Yangtze River: The price of threads and coiled snails was raised by 80 yuan/ton.
5. Yutian Jinzhou: The price of wire rod was raised by 40 yuan/ton.
6. Jinnan Iron and Steel: the price of wire rod was raised by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of coiled snail was raised by 80 yuan/ton.
7. Shougang Changzhi: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 50 yuan/ton.
8. Anyang Zhougang: ribbed steel bars increased by 40 yuan/ton.
9. Lu'an: The price of thread, wire rod and coil snail was raised by 80 yuan/ton.
10. Chongqing Yonghang: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 40 yuan/ton.
11. Shandong Iron and Steel: The price of thread and coil snail was raised by 50 yuan/ton.
12. Inner Mongolia Yaxin: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 20 yuan/ton.
13. Shiheng: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 60 yuan/ton.
14. Laigang: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 60 yuan/ton.
15. Guangdong Jinshenglan: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 30 yuan/ton.
16. Shanxi Gaoyi: The price of wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 60 yuan/ton.
17. Tangshan Donghua: wire rod price increased by 70 yuan/ton.
18. Zunyi Fuxin: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 80 yuan/ton.
19. Guangxi Guixin: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 30 yuan/ton.
20. Fushun New Iron and Steel: The price of thread, wire rod and coil snail was raised by 60 yuan/ton.
21. Gui Wangang: the price of thread was raised by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 50 yuan/ton.
22. Shanxi Meijin: The price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 50 yuan/ton.
23. Jiyuan, Henan: the price of thread was raised by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 70 yuan/ton.
24. Shanxi Jianbang: the price of thread, wire rod and coiled snail was raised by 60 yuan/ton.
25. Lianyuan Steel: The price of thread was raised by 50 yuan/ton.
All adjustments are inclusive of tax.
3. Raw fuel market
Today's imported ore: the market price of imported iron ore mainstream varieties is strong. Overseas supply contracted for a short time, while steel continued to go to the warehouse rapidly, the growth rate of hot metal production or accelerated, coupled with strong macro expectations, the May Day holiday steel mill replenishment and other factors, led to a sharp rise in iron ore prices, but considering that the supply is still loose, short-term iron ore or a narrow range of shocks.
Today's coke: Coke prices are stable. Due to the good shipment situation, the coke inventory in the coke enterprise plant is running at a low level, and the price of coking coal at the raw material end is superimposed, and the coke cost support is enhanced, and the coke spot price may be strong in the short term.
Today's scrap steel: scrap prices are mainly rising, with a range of 10-50. Today's snail shock is strong, and scrap prices are supported. Although the overall profits of steel enterprises have improved, but the cost performance of scrap steel has not been advantaged, with the pace of steel mill price increases and the supply of scrap steel in some areas has increased, the market will accelerate the willingness to ship, and it is expected that the price of scrap steel will remain stable tomorrow.
Today's billet: Tangshan Qian'anpu billet resources ex-factory tax reported 3490 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of billet market in the country is rising, the snail shock is strong, the price of downstream finished products is rising steadily, and the overall transaction is slowing down, and it is expected that the price of billet will remain stable and strong tomorrow.
Fourth, Tao Xiaogang's point of view
At present, the atmosphere of the steel market is good, although the apparent demand is weak, but the steel inventory continues to deplete, and the enthusiasm of steel mills to increase prices is high. Coupled with the gradual improvement of steel mill profits, the supply of steel may increase slightly, the price of raw fuels such as iron ore and coke has risen strongly, and the support of steel costs has increased. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission said that it will promote the construction of additional treasury bonds before June last year, and the supply and demand fundamentals of the steel market are expected to further improve. In the short term, steel prices or continue to fluctuate strongly, considering that today's transaction after the sharp rise in steel prices is more general, tomorrow's steel price rise or will slow down, tomorrow's steel prices are expected to hold a steady rise, the range of 10-20.
Information reference: Finance Associated Press, The Paper, Guangming.com, Xiben Information, Lange Steel Network, My Steel, etc.
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