[Market analysis and interpretation] 2024.4.18
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively low, and then showed a bottoming out trend, with more than 3,500 stocks rising and falling less, with a half-day turnover of 619.3 billion and a net outflow of 2.604 billion northbound funds.
The second wave of correction in the A-share market has been maintained for nearly a month, and from the perspective of the time cycle, the adjustment seems to be coming to an end, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the ChiNext Index have also fallen to near the 60-day moving average. However, the timing is not very good, the second half of April is about to usher in the intensive release of the first quarter financial reports of listed companies, which may bring some uncertainty, so it is necessary to maintain a moderate degree of caution in operation, and there is no need to rush to chase up at this moment.
For example, A-shares have risen, but Hong Kong stocks have not danced with it, and there is no obvious sign of northbound funds flowing into the bottom, which reflects that the attitude of short-term funds in the current market is still cautious, and it is generally believed that the bull market has not yet started immediately, and the short-term market situation is more like "the bull is emerging, and the bear shadow still exists". But if you really want to enter the market now, I suggest that you can focus on those technology sectors with good performance forecasts in the first quarter, which are expected to show stronger resilience and growth in the subsequent market.
In the medium to long term, there is reason to be optimistic, and the introduction of the new nine-point policy is undoubtedly a major positive for the A-share market, although the market may experience unexpected volatility in the short term, but it provides us with an opportunity to screen high-quality assets and discover true value. In the face of such a market environment, investors should look at short-term fluctuations rationally, grasp the structural market, and gradually lay out industries and sectors with core competitiveness and good growth prospects.
From the perspective of sectors, motors, household parts, and insurance sectors led the gains today, while petroleum and petrochemical, energy, and super fungus sectors led the declines today.
From the perspective of capital, there was a net inflow of finance, non-bank finance, and automobiles, and a net outflow of the main forces of China Special Valuation, science and technology, and state-owned enterprise reform.
From the perspective of the index, the insurance theme, home appliance faucets, and household appliances were among the top daily gainers, while green power, power grid, and Nasdaq 100 were the last to increase on a daily basis.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, 20-week moving averages are golden crosses, MACD indicator golden cross, red column shortening, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator golden cross convergence upward, J value probe top turning head, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index running above the middle track.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 30-week moving average, and the technical upside space is open, and the upper pressure is near 3130 points, that is, near the 60-week moving average, and it will encounter real big resistance at that time.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day moving average death fork, 10-day and 20-day moving averages, MACD indicator death fork, green column expansion, indicator line running below the 0 axis, KDJ indicator death fork convergence downward, J value bottoming turn, BOLL channel opening spread, stock index near the middle track.
Analysis: In the short term, I still think that the index still needs time to repeatedly oscillate above and below the pressure line before it has a chance to break through.
【Fundamentals & News】
According to data from the Bureau of Statistics, the national real estate development investment from January to March was 2,208.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.5%. (Real Estate)
According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in order to accelerate the development of 5G innovation, the commercial process of 5G RedCap will be promoted in a solid and orderly manner. (Communication)
Suzhou plans to hold a low-altitude conference on April 18 to accelerate the construction of a national low-altitude economic demonstration zone. (Low Altitude Economy)
Commercial banks pushed the first batch of "white lists" to the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, and the number of approved projects exceeded 2,100, with a total amount of more than 520 billion yuan. (Real Estate)
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a new batch of new energy vehicles that reduce and exempt vehicle purchase tax, including Xiaomi SU7, BYD Seal, and Zhijie S7. (New Energy Vehicles)
Tesla's Shanghai Energy Storage Gigafactory will start construction next month and achieve mass production in the first quarter of next year. (Tesla)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.30, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index: P/E ratio of 20.45, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 26.79, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 43.18, undervaluation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 11.86, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.35, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio is 22.00, undervaluation.
【Plate Analysis】
Science and technology: Recently, the central government has introduced a major initiative, that is, the establishment of a total of up to 500 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation of the special re-lending policy, the interest rate is set at 1.9%, the core goal is to encourage and support financial institutions to strengthen the financial support for small and medium-sized science and technology enterprises, key technologies and equipment upgrading projects. This policy has undoubtedly injected new vitality into the technology growth sector.
First of all, driven by policies, new quality productivity is expected to deeply tap the value potential of cutting-edge production factors such as data elements, and then drive the prosperity and development of the entire data industry chain. As ordinary investors, we can pay close attention to those companies that focus on data collection, processing, analysis and application, their role in the era of big data will become increasingly prominent, and the future development prospects are broad.
Secondly, policy guidance will strongly promote the digital transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry and promote the large-scale application of the industrial Internet in a wider range of fields. In this context, investment opportunities in the fields related to intelligent manufacturing and industrial Internet deserve our attention. Through technological innovation, these enterprises can effectively improve the efficiency and competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, and are expected to stand out in the future development.
In addition, the mainland is making every effort to build an integrated and efficient computing power system, which will not only stimulate the construction speed of the domestic AI industry chain to increase significantly, giving rise to a huge demand for domestic high-performance computing power and storage capacity, but also accelerate the pace of fields such as AIGC (artificial intelligence generated content) and intelligent driving from the laboratory to the market. This means that enterprises that are deployed in AI infrastructure and its practical application scenarios may usher in a new round of growth flashpoints.
To sum up, driven by the current policy dividends and market demand, the technology growth sector will still be a major theme of the investment market this year. While there may be a risk of a correction in some technology stocks in the short term, from a medium-term perspective, it is wise for investors seeking long-term value growth to continue to focus on and allocate fund products with relevant technology growth themes.
【Strategy Sharing】
Get on the bus today: Vietnamese market.
Get off today: Fundamentals 50, infrastructure projects, China Securities Bank, The Belt and Road.
Ready to get on the bus: Hong Kong small and medium-sized enterprises, S&P 500, S&P Biologics, China General Internet, India market.
Ready to get off: 500 quality, bonus opportunities.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.