The 4680 battery, known as the "light of lithium battery", is difficult to deliver.
At the beginning of 2023, Musk said that 2024 will be the year "4680", but the current production capacity of 4680 batteries still falls short of expectations.
In January 2023, Tesla produced 1 million 4680 battery cells, in June 2023, Tesla produced 10 million 4680 battery cells, and in October 2023, it announced that it would break through the 20 million 4680 battery cells. According to industry calculations, it looks like a staggering number, but the production capacity of 10 million 4680 battery cells can only meet the production of about 12,000 Model Y models.
On the supplier side, Panasonic announced that the mass production time of the company's 4680 large cylindrical battery will be postponed to April-September 2024, one year later than the original schedule. In addition, Tesla is also negotiating with CATL and LG Chem for the production of 4680 batteries. The production capacity issue of the 4680 battery is also one of the important reasons for the slow delivery of Tesla's pickup trucks, and according to media reports, potential buyers who place orders for the Cybertruck now will have to wait until 2025 to receive their vehicles.
In addition to production capacity problems, low yield is also a problem that plagues 4680 large cylindrical batteries. Recent data shows that the yield rate of Tesla's 4680 battery has reached 95%. As a comparison, the yield rate of 2170 small cylindrical batteries is 99%.
In addition, the energy density and cost reduction of the 4680 battery have not been reached. Judging from the current information, the cathode material of Tesla's first-generation 4680 battery contains 90% nickel, 5% cobalt and manganese, and the energy density is estimated to be only about 250Wh/kg. According to the latest analysis results of the University of California, San Diego, the energy density of the 4680 large cylindrical battery assembled in the Model Y model produced by Tesla's Texas Gigafactory is only 244Wh/kg, and the energy density of the Panasonic 2170 cylindrical battery equipped with the Model Y produced in the California factory is 269 Wh/kg, that is, the energy density of the 4680 battery is not as good as that of the 2170 battery.
In 2020, when the 4680 battery was unveiled, the energy density target was 300Wh per kilogram, as a comparison, the Kirin battery of the CATL era has an energy density of more than 250Wh/kg, and has achieved stable mass production, which is not counting the semi-solid-state batteries that have been intensively put on the car by various car companies recently.
By the time the 4680 battery reaches the production capacity and energy density target, it will be a few years?
In September 2020, Tesla released a large cylindrical battery with a diameter of 46 mm and a height of 80 mm for the first time. Termus advertises this as a revolutionary lithium-ion battery, with improved chemistry and manufacturing processes, which can provide 5 times more energy, 6 times more power, and increase the range by 16% compared to the original 2170 battery, reducing production costs by more than 50%. In terms of manufacturing process, all-tab technology and dry electrode technology are used.
At that time, 4680 was launched, almost praised by the media on the altar, what energy density increased by 5 times (in fact, the energy of the monomer increased by 5 times), what cost reduced by 69%, etc., it seems that Tesla's technology is still a big step ahead of domestic car companies, but now, the new battery technology of domestic battery manufacturers is wave after wave, Kirin battery, brick battery, condensed matter battery, Semi-solid-state batteries, including the solid-state batteries that GAC has just announced for mass production in 2026, and Tesla's 4680 battery, which has not yet reached the design performance of futures products, has no energy density, production capacity can not keep up, and the pass rate cannot keep up.
Maybe 2 years later, 3 years later, Tesla's boasting can be realized, but at that time, who cares about the 4680 battery? Tesla is good at the packaging of the concept, but whether the concept can be landed, how to land, who cares?