The central bank, the development and Reform Commission of the intensive voice, the macro warm wind made the copper price in the afternoon of the 18th by leaps and bounds, as of the 18th day market close, Shanghai copper rose 2.79%, the highest intraday rose to 78,920 yuan / ton, refreshing its new high since May 2006. In terms of London copper, as of 15:06 pm on the 18th, London copper rose 1.12%, refreshing a new high since June 2022 to $9,726 / ton. On the news side: The central bank said at the press conference of the State Council Information Office on April 18 that there is still room for future monetary policy, and the next step will be to closely observe the effect of the policy and the economic recovery and the realization of the target, and make good use of the reserve policy. On April 17, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) mentioned at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that it would accelerate the implementation of measures such as ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, strengthen the guidance of expectations, and enhance market confidence. He also talked about expanding consumption and the low-altitude economy.
On the news side, the central bank, the National Development and Reform Commission, etc. have made intensive statements about monetary policy, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, and expanding consumption
Zhu Hexin, deputy governor of the central bank, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on April 18 that since the beginning of this year, a series of monetary policies made in the early stage are gradually playing a role. There is still room for monetary policy in the future, and the next step will be to closely observe the effect of the policy and the economic recovery and the realization of the target, and make good use of the reserve policy. Zou Lan, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that the current broad money (M2) exceeds 300 trillion yuan, which is a reflection of financial support for the development of the real economy in the past few years. On the whole, the current stock of money is indeed not low, and at present, the mainland's economic restructuring is accelerating, the economy is becoming lighter, the demand for credit has weakened compared with before, and the credit structure has been optimized and upgraded. However, all sides have a process of understanding and adapting to (this) change, and some banks still have "scale plots" in their internal assessments, which exceed the effective financing needs of the real economy; some enterprises, with the help of their own dominant position, use low-cost loan financing to buy wealth management or re-lend to other enterprises, and the main business is not profitable, but finance has become the main business, which is easy to form idling and capital precipitation, and reduce the efficiency of capital use. Relevant departments will strengthen the monitoring of the idling of funds and improve the management assessment mechanism. In the future, with the transformation and upgrading of the economy, the recovery of effective financing demand, the improvement of social expectations, and the phenomenon of capital precipitation and idling will also be alleviated. The current huge monetary aggregate growth is likely to slow down, and there will be disturbances in the data, so it is not appropriate to make a simple year-on-year comparison.
Tao Qing, spokesman of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and director of the Operation Monitoring and Coordination Bureau, said at a press conference of the State Council Information Office on April 18 that in the next step, we will further implement the deployment arrangements of the National Conference on the Promotion of New Industrialization on comprehensively promoting the green development of industry, and build a number of green manufacturing benchmarks with the new advantages of green competition in the forging industry as the main line, focusing on three aspects. First, accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation and upgrading of traditional industries. Implement support policies such as large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in of consumer goods, guide enterprises, parks, and key industries to fully implement a new round of green and low-carbon technological transformation and upgrading, accelerate the optimization and adjustment of the product structure, energy consumption structure, and raw material structure of traditional industries, and process reengineering, so as to enhance industrial competitiveness.
The Information Office of the State Council held a press conference on the afternoon of April 17, inviting Liu Sushe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Yuan Da, deputy secretary-general and director of the Department of Comprehensive National Economy, and Jin Xiandong, director of the Policy Research Office, to interpret the macroeconomic situation and policies and answer questions from reporters. Liu Sushe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that in the first quarter, the economic operation continued to pick up and improve, the economic growth rate exceeded expectations, the economic structure continued to be optimized, the quality and efficiency improved, the employment price was basically stable, the market expectation improved overall, the overall social situation remained stable, and the economic and social development achieved a good start. At present, the positive factors in economic operation continue to increase, but the external environment is complex, severe and uncertain, domestic effective demand is insufficient, social expectations are weak, the foundation for economic stability and improvement is not yet solid, and economic operation is still facing many risks and challenges. The National Development and Reform Commission will, in accordance with the deployment of the Central Economic Work Conference and the clear tasks of the "Government Work Report", adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, intensify the implementation of macro policies, implement the recently introduced large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in action plan, greater efforts to attract and utilize foreign investment and other policies, accelerate the implementation of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and other measures, continue to strengthen the construction of a modern industrial system, expand domestic demand, comprehensively deepen reform and expand high-level opening up, Coordinated development of urban and rural areas, green and low-carbon development, protection and improvement of people's livelihood, and prudent prevention and resolution of risks in related fields, actively cultivate and develop new quality productivity, and at the same time, strengthen the guidance of expectations, enhance market confidence, and make every effort to consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and promote the high-quality completion of the annual economic and social development goals and tasks.
Masato Kanda, finance officer at Japan's Ministry of Finance, said the G7 reiterated their position that excessive exchange rate volatility is undesirable. The yen is hovering near a 34-year low and has led to multiple warnings from the Japanese authorities, with traders fearing that the authorities may intervene. At their first trilateral meeting on Wednesday, the financial leaders of the United States, Japan and South Korea agreed to "close consultations" on the dynamics of the foreign exchange market, sharing the concerns of Japan and South Korea about the recent sharp decline in their currencies. Statements by the finance ministers of Japan, South Korea and the United States may have been aimed at controlling the foreign exchange market and boosted the possibility that the three countries could jointly intervene in the market if the yen and won weaken further against the dollar, said Chang Wei Liang, FX and credit strategist at DBS Research. Acknowledging serious concerns about the recent sharp weakening of the yen and South Korean won, the statement affirmed that the three countries will hold close consultations on foreign exchange issues. He also said that the addition of the U.S. Treasury Department is noteworthy. DBS' modelling shows that the USD/JPY level, which is associated with significant intervention risks, has now risen to 156.00.
Future
To sum up, the strong sentiment of the macro market has driven copper prices to rise again and again, and the intensive voices of the central bank and other departments have driven copper prices at home and abroad to jump again and refresh the stage highs. What other macro factors will affect the future trend of copper prices, such as China's one-year and five-year loan prime rates in April, the US GDP and core PCE price index in the first quarter, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision.
Fundamentally, from the supply side, the import loss of the week has exceeded 1500 yuan / ton, with the rise of Shanghai copper futures, the loss range has narrowed, it is expected that the follow-up imported copper in the domestic trade market circulation or will be reduced, but the current supply of domestic copper and imported copper is still relatively abundant. In terms of consumption, the purchase volume of downstream processing enterprises is still not much, and the replenishment is mainly needed, and the market transaction is still not active. Inventory: As of Thursday, April 18, SMM's copper inventory in mainstream areas across the country increased by 4,500 tons from Monday to 403,500 tons, but decreased by 1,700 tons from last Thursday, a slight decline from the high of the year. Specifically, the inventory in Shanghai increased by 8,100 tons from Monday to 270,200 tons, and the main reason for the increase in Shanghai inventory this week was the large inflow of imported non-standard copper. Inventories in Jiangsu decreased slightly by 1,500 tons to 64,900 tons, mainly due to the increase in domestic smelter exports and a slight improvement in downstream consumption compared with last week. Inventories in Guangdong fell by 02,800 tons to 55,200 tons, and this week's arrivals in Guangdong decreased and shipments increased slightly, which can also be reflected from the rebound from the low level of Guangdong's average daily shipments. Looking ahead, SMM expects total supply to be little changed next week compared to this week, although domestic supply has decreased due to maintenance and exports, but there is also a lot of imported copper arrivals. In terms of downstream consumption, copper prices are still at a high level, and consumption is expected to not improve significantly, but as the May Day holiday approaches, it is expected that some companies will replenish before the May Day holiday. As a result, SMM expects a slight increase in supply and consumption next week, with weekly inventories likely to decline slightly.