Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed out of a typical multi-party cannon technical pattern, that is, two yang and one yin, today's impact on 3100 points did not bring surprises, after the highest intraday hit 3102 points, northbound funds began to show a net outflow trend, resulting in a short-term market phenomenon of rising and falling. The core issues of today's review mainly include two points: one is to discuss whether the market will repeat the historical 4.19 market tomorrow, and the other is to clarify when is the right time to enter the market. Let's get straight to the point:
1. 4.19 may be partially reproduced because the market sentiment is very volatile!
Recall the point that yesterday's wind and rain emphasized: the key to the market reversal is the continuous amplification of volume, and today's volume obviously does not meet this standard. After crossing above 3100 points, the market's attention redirected to the low-altitude economic theme, which was reasonable, but slightly awkward in rhythm. Normally, "weighting the stage, theme singing" is the law of healthy rise, but today's weighted sector has not yet established a solid foundation, and theme stocks are eager to perform (rushing to sing), resulting in the already limited market liquidity being over-consumed, which is the main problem facing the current market. Considering that tomorrow is Friday, April 19 is the futures delivery day (curse), it is inevitable to rush higher and fall back, and this round of upward breakthrough attempts can be regarded as a failure.
Looking at it from another angle, the market has just experienced a heavy fall across the board on Tuesday, and although there was a general rally yesterday, many sectors have not yet recovered to Monday's closing levels, which reflects that market confidence is still in a relatively fragile state. With the arrival of mid-to-late April, the intensive disclosure period of annual reports and quarterly reports of listed companies also follows, and under normal circumstances, the earlier the company announces its financial report, the better the financial position, while the company that delays the disclosure may have greater problems. Even if the market successfully stands at 3100 points today, is your account at a new high? If not, then this breakthrough is likely to be an illusion, and the market has cultivated the habit of selling high and buying low in the past five years. Given the pullback pressure that the market is likely to face after the spike, the likelihood of a sell-off tomorrow has increased considerably.
2. When is the right time to enter the market?
Another core point mentioned by yesterday's wind and rain is to stand in line and choose the right investment direction! The 419 market may become an ideal time to enter the market. Due to the ups and downs of market sentiment, it is easy to rise and fall together, for those sectors or individual stocks that fluctuate with the general trend, there is no need to pay too much attention, because the varieties that are really favored by the main funds are usually not affected by short-term market fluctuations. As the saying goes, "Only when the tide goes out do you know who's swimming naked". Taking the current hot gold trend as an example, although many investors expect gold prices to intervene after a pullback, the reality is that gold prices have risen all the way up while everyone is waiting for a pullback, hitting new highs, which clearly reflects the strong long-term intention of the main funds. The same logic applies to the stock market, if the market corrects again tomorrow, but some sectors are not affected by this, but continue to strengthen and strengthen, then these sectors may be the direction of the main capital focus attack.
Recently, some of the long-dormant unpopular weighted sectors have begun to regain their vitality, and the market trend seems to be showing signs of repeating the "beautiful 50" market in 2017. Considering that the index is currently in a critical phase of wild volatility and trying to break through, the long momentum of large blue chips is particularly important. Once the important psychological threshold of 3100 points is stabilized, then the speculation of theme stocks will have a solid foundation and lasting momentum. Because only the stable performance of heavyweight stocks will make a breakthrough of 3100 points more feasible. Assuming that tomorrow's heavyweights fail to make a difference, and the market still relies on the theme sector to remain active, then a breakthrough of 3100 points will be difficult to achieve. When the market liquidity and enthusiasm are gradually exhausted, it is likely to usher in a phased high. Even if the disk protection funds try their best to maintain stability, they cannot stop the overall weakening trend of the market, and you must know how to take profit at this time.
To sum up, the market sentiment is generally pessimistic on the special date of 419 tomorrow, especially after today's index surge and fall, the market is likely to usher in a new round of adjustment. Recently, the market environment has changed, and high-quality blue chips have begun to show strength, and if the main funds choose to continue to push such heavyweights higher, 3100 points may be able to break through and be consolidated. However, the rise and fall of the index is not completely synchronized with the performance of individual stocks, and in the case of tightening funds, it is possible to reproduce the phenomenon of the index rising and individual stocks generally falling like Monday, choosing the right direction and standing on the right team, or becoming the key to winning tomorrow!
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