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According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the price of acetic acid has continued to rise recently, and the average market price of acetic acid on April 17 was 3450 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton compared with the price of 3100 yuan/ton on April 1, an increase of 11.29%.
Since April, the price trend of acetic acid has risen strongly. As the price of acetic acid fell to a low level at the end of March, some downstream low-price purchase intentions increased, and with the arrival of the Qingming holiday, enterprises considered the downstream replenishment demand, and the factory quotation was intentionally pushed up. After returning after the holiday, the downstream wait-and-see acetic acid factories have a strong intention to rise, the demand for replenishment is gradually increasing, the acetic acid manufacturers are shipping smoothly, and the inventory pressure is weakened. After the failure of Jiangsu Thorpe plant and the reduction of the burden of natural alkali plant, the capacity utilization rate in the field decreased significantly, the quotation of acetic acid in various regions followed the rise, the market trading atmosphere was positive, and the acetic acid market continued to rise.
As of April 17, the market price of acetic acid in each region is as follows:
| region | April 1 | April 17th | Change |
| South | 3000 | 3225 | +225 |
| North China | 3050 | 3275 | +225 |
| Shandong region | 3100 | 3400 | +300 |
| Jiangsu region | 3025 | 3200 | +175 |
| Zhejiang region | 3125 | 3300 | +175 |
Fundamentals
The market of methanol, the upstream raw material, fluctuated widely. On April 17, the average price of the domestic methanol market was 2,660 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 1.41% compared with the price of 2,623 yuan/ton on April 1. In the early stage, the centralized spring inspection of domestic methanol plants was average, and the start of construction was mainly maintained at a high level, and the market price was weak; in the later stage, the inventory of the mainland sample enterprises was low, and the price fell greatly in the early stage, and the enterprises had a strong intention to explore the price, but due to the resistance of the downstream to the high price, the methanol rose in general.
The downstream acetic anhydride market rose strongly. On April 17, the ex-factory price of acetic anhydride in Shandong was 5650 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.96% compared with the price of 5487.5 yuan/ton on April 1. The price of acetic acid in the upstream has risen strongly, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased significantly, the acetic anhydride enterprises have started normally, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream has started steadily, and the market has been followed up on demand, and the price of acetic anhydride has been raised under the influence of cost.
Technical
The acetic acid market outlook may continue to be strong and upward. Since March 31, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30-day moving average to start an upward trend, and the current two moving averages continue to move upwards together. According to 2024/4/14, the probability of a change in the operating situation (that is, the 7-day moving average crossing the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 25.09%.
At present, the annual price of acetic acid is at the low level of one year, the low price of two years, and the low price of three years. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average value of acetic acid in the past three years is 4524.93 yuan/ton, the median value is 5958.34 yuan/ton, the minimum value is 2866.67 yuan/ton, the maximum value is 9050 yuan/ton, the bottom difference (the lowest price difference in the past 3 years) is 583.33 yuan/ton, and the top difference (the highest price difference in the past 3 years) is -5600 yuan/ton.
Market outlook: business community acetic acid analysts believe that from a fundamental point of view, the current acetic acid enterprise inventory is not pressurized, the market capacity utilization rate is lower, the supply side news is good, the downstream start is stable, the market is followed up on demand, the market trading atmosphere is good, the manufacturer ships smoothly, and the technical point of view, the short-term acetic acid rise probability is large, so it is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to run strongly in the later period.