Folks, today's small ticket is back, and I can finally breathe a sigh of relief.
Yesterday, the China Securities Regulatory Commission urgently came forward to clarify, saying that not paying dividends by ST does not mean that it will be delisted immediately, and if it is improved in the future, it is possible to take off the hat; and clarified the delisting indicators: about 30 companies are expected to be delisted from the company with applicable financial indicators in 25 years, and about 100 companies may be ST.
It's good to have specific figures, this is called expectation management, which is very important, otherwise it is easy to cause the market to have strong concerns about uncertainty.
However, the over-falling rebound does not change the trend, the probability of a small ticket thunderstorm is too high, and the number is large, and it is tantamount to a fool's dream to rely on fundamental analysis to avoid lightning or screen out 10 times the potential stocks that are killed by mistake.
The big policy direction is still to strengthen the supervision of IPOs, crack down on fraud, iron roosters, reduce holdings and other violations, and encourage listed companies to pay more dividends, don't make a mistake.
A-share has always been a policy market, follow the policy, there will be meat to eat, you have to worry about it, then who can blame it?
……
Let me tell you another stimulus: UBS strategists said that the U.S. economy is strong, inflation is resilient, and the probability of U.S. interest rate hikes is increasing, and it is possible to raise interest rates to 6.5% next year!
Powell and Fed member Daly have been hawkish, saying that the 2% inflation target is confidence, and if there is no confidence, there is no rush to cut interest rates.
The latest US dollar interest rate swap shows that there are only 38 bps left for this year's rate cut (less than two), and the probability of a rate cut in June has been as low as 15.8%, which is almost impossible.
If the interest rate is really raised to 6.5%, then U.S. stocks, banks and U.S. Treasury bonds are estimated to be set off by fireworks.
Didn't I just talk about the collapse of the yen yesterday? Now the won has also collapsed, breaking through the 1:1400 mark against the dollar. In addition, the currencies of India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam and other countries all hit record lows.
Don't worry, it's not over yet.
Da Mo and Bank of America predict that the yen will go at least 160, and some hedge funds in the United States have begun to buy derivatives of 170 yen to hedge, which also reveals the future direction of the yen: it is not the bottom at all, and it has not yet fallen.
The entire East Asia to South Asia arc is probably on the menu.
Some people say that the renminbi is also depreciating? Come on, can reasonable fluctuations and crashes be called the same thing?
In just four months this year, the yen has depreciated by 9% against the US dollar, and the renminbi has depreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar, with a difference of nearly five times.
Do you know how much the yen has depreciated against the dollar in the past 20 years? 54%! It has fallen from 1:100 to 1:154, and the yen has also fallen from 1:14 to 1:21, a 50% depreciation against the renminbi during the same period.
During the same period, the renminbi fell from 1:6.96 to 1:7.26 against the dollar, depreciating by only 4.5%, and don't forget that the U.S. dollar interest rate can be 5.5%.
20 years so far, the Nikkei index has risen by 65%, if you took the yuan to invest in yen, and now you exchange it back, it is equivalent to only 10% up, of course, it is still stronger than A shares, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.6% during the same period, stall ~
In fact, people who have been to Japan in recent years are very unhappy:
1. Income does not rise but falls. Japan's per capita income was 4.63 million yen in 2004 and 4.33 million yen in 2023, a decrease of 6.5%, while China's per capita income has increased by 5.7 times.
Converted into RMB, the per capita income of Japan in 04 was 356,000 yuan, almost 30,000 per month, and China's per capita income was less than 500 yuan / month, a difference of 60 times.
In 23 years, it will only be 200,000 yuan, and the monthly salary is 17,000 yuan, while ours is 3,200 yuan/month, a difference of 5.3 times.
2. Inflation is severe. In the past 20 years, the price of essential consumer goods such as food, drink, transportation and other goods in Japan has risen by about 80%~120%, housing prices in the 23 wards of Tokyo have increased by 180%, while the consumption tax has doubled, from 5% to 10%, the national tax burden has increased from 34.1% to 46.8%, and pensions have fallen by 20%.
Don't talk nonsense, we're also rising, nonsense, which country hasn't seen prices rise in recent years? But Japan is enjoying the thrill of inflation under the premise of declining income, depreciating exchange rate, and increasing tax burden, can that feeling be the same as ours?
So what does this matter with my monthly salary of 3000? I can't say that it doesn't matter at all, if you still have the opportunity to go to Japan, then the tourism industry will be much cheaper, such as the famous *** park.
I know that A-shares are more harmful to everyone, maybe more than the men's football team, and they have been critted in the past two days, but this does not mean that the real problem is really that serious, but A-shares are too sensitive, and they will not return to blood today?
It's still the same sentence: eventful, don't bet on it, change quickly and more, it's easy to put yourself in the air, see more and move less.
Today's shrinkage turnover was 918.5 billion, with a total of 5,143 rising and 203 falling in the two cities, with a rise and fall ratio of 238:28, a net outflow of 230 million northbound funds, and a net inflow of 30.5 billion domestic capital.
More than 5,000 fell yesterday and more than 5,000 rose today, and A-shares are indeed too fragile and too easy to be guided by emotions.
This kind of wide range fluctuation can bring excess returns to short-term operations, but how many people can accurately grasp it? Either they are waiting for blood to be regained by the suit, or they want to earn a premium the next day, or they are trying to protect the capital in advance, and there are very few people who really eat enough emotional premium.
My advice is very straightforward: understand the policy, follow the policy, don't confront the general trend, be optimistic about the long-term development of A-shares, use short-term fluctuations to adjust positions and swap shares, and follow the trend.
There will be times when you ride the wind and waves, and you will be able to make money by hanging on the clouds and sailing into the sea!
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