Recently, the Federal Reserve's high interest rates have risen, and overseas currencies, including Southeast Asia and Europe, have reached new lows against the US dollar.
In fact, I think it is normal to be hammered under high interest rates, but today's rise in A-shares is a little weird;
Because foreign capital is a collective outflow, and A-share assets have suddenly exploded.
Combined with the continuous upward offensive of large-cap stocks in the past two days, it is entirely possible that the national team is making a move.
Guojiu has only come out for three days and rebounded for a day, and some people have already shouted that the bull market is coming,
In fact, without the expected release of the Fed's interest rate cuts, it is difficult for me A to be immune to the bear market.
So shout slogans, dear friends, don't worry, let's take our time
There is one thing to say, now overseas has been blown up, but the RMB is not moving, and the central mother is really hard.
After all, the one-year interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds is as high as 5.2%, while Treasury bonds are 1.7%.
If the RMB is not expected to appreciate, fools will know which one to choose.
Therefore, if Lao Mei does not cut interest rates for a long time, then even if we have a thick foundation, we may have to peel off the skin.
For stability, the best strategy at the moment is to hold as many domestic short-duration US dollar bonds as possible.
However, the domestic QDII quota has basically been exhausted.
There are only a few that can be chosen, just look at the few that we hold around the clock
......
In addition, gold has been a bit of a fan in the past two days, and market funds have begun to pour into silver again.
On a whim, I want to compare which asset has been the best in the past 20 years.
Well, so I'll show you an advantage map.
Obviously, ordinary commodities can't outperform gold, and even silver and cloth oil are almost meaningless.
This is like in virtual currency, Bitcoin is always used as a big brother, the younger brother surpasses in stages, and the big brother has to look at the big brother in the long run.
Of course, silver is not bad, so some overseas all-weather bigwigs will cut the strategy of precious metals into gold and silver.
But I gave up considering that the domestic silver fund was too rubbish and couldn't even keep up with the tail of the index.
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Regarding gold, I pulled again the historical performance of the MSCI World Index and London Gold,
Found London gold and the global stock market (MSCI World Index), elongated to see the actual rally close,
From 1990 to the present, London gold is up 493%, while the MSCI World Index is up 439%.
As I mentioned in my previous article, gold and the global stock market are essentially looking at money printing.
So the long-term performance should not be too different, and it is also reflected in this data.
But considering that gold has no dividends, the MSCI World Index plus dividends should still be able to suppress gold.
However, the hedging effect of these two is really good, there are several trends in the above chart, and sometimes gold and the stock market rise together, such as 03-06, 09-10, 20-21.
Sometimes it is a rise and a fall, 00-02, 07-08, gold rises in crisis, and the stock market rises in peace.
But it's true that there are fewer times when they fall together.
..........
At the operational level, today I added a 50W all-weather pen, and the U.S. stock market has continued to adjust recently, and there is just a pen of money that has not been used for about 2 years.
1. The follow-up of Manager Cai's accident came, and Caixin disclosed some details today, saying that Qu Quanru took Cai Songsong to take over the stock together, contributing a total of about 10 million, Qu collected millions, and Manager Cai only had hundreds of thousands, and Dong Boxiong pimped as a brokerage middleman. Many people in the industry don't believe it, this genius boy has a career for hundreds of thousands? But I think, is it possible that this is just the tip of the iceberg, and there is still a lot of money to be paid... So let's move up the bench and continue to eat melons.
2. The Central Bank of Vietnam injected a special loan of 24 billion US dollars into the Bank of Saigon, accounting for about 5.6% of GDP and 1/4 of foreign exchange reserves. However, the day before yesterday, Vietnam's stock market fell sharply, more affected by interest rate hikes, and had little to do with the richest woman. After this decline, I will continue to keep watching, after all, local events do not affect the macro trend of Vietnam's economy, and Vietnam's overall valuation is still low.
Having said that, Xu Belt's debt volume of 2.4 trillion is about the same level as the richest woman in Vietnam, and our M2 is so much, is it possible that it is also used to pay off debts...
3. Sino Oil & Gas Energy (163208) is completely open to subscription, with a current premium of 30 points, theoretically there is room for arbitrage, but what I am more taboo about is the unlimited, which means that there will be a large amount of money to smash the market, and the daily turnover of this fund is only a few million, I feel that the space will not be too big, leisurely.
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