With the continuous improvement of the product strength of China's independent car companies, and the increasingly fierce domestic competition environment, going overseas has become the second growth curve of car companies. In 2023, China's passenger car exports will exceed 4.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 64%, ranking first in the world, and in 2024, the overseas layout of many car companies will also accelerate.
In view of this background, Gasgoo focuses on three aspects: trend summary, market dynamics, and forecast and outlook. The report reads in part:
Trend Summary:
The head pattern of automakers is gradually forming: the proportion of domestic brands in exports has increased for three consecutive years, returning to a historical high of 77.3%, and the head pattern of export car companies led by Chery and SAIC has gradually taken shape.
Product development in the direction of high value: In recent years, the proportion of A/B/C class has increased significantly, and SUVs have become the leading products for export, and the value of products has also increased rapidly, with the average export price of passenger cars reaching 120,000 yuan in 2023.
Diversification of export regions: With a variety of technical routes such as fuel vehicles, pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, etc., the business of developed markets and traditional export markets has been achieved simultaneously.
Simultaneous development of localization construction and trade exports: The leading overseas car companies have steadily promoted the construction of overseas production bases in key markets such as Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and CIS countries.
Supply chain enterprises accelerate their going overseas: Represented by the power battery and chassis fields, supply chain enterprises are accelerating their expansion to the automotive industry clusters of third world countries such as Thailand and Mexico.
Market Dynamics:
Europe: The EU's countervailing investigation aims to weaken the export competitiveness of China's domestic BEVs and promote the localization of supply chain and production.
U.S.: The new rules of the Inflation Reduction Act came into effect, and the localization requirements of the electric vehicle supply chain were tightened, and Chinese parts companies were further excluded.
Southeast Asia: Thailand and Indonesia are increasing the attractiveness of foreign investment in the pure electric vehicle industry, and many car companies are following the pace of policies and landing CKD new energy production capacity.
Russia: The auto market recovered more than expected, the government promoted the strengthening of localization, and a number of independent automakers expanded their product lines in the Russian market.
Latin America: The overall auto market is recovering sluggishly, with the largest market in Brazil resuming tariffs on new energy vehicles, and Great Wall and BYD Brazil are expected to put their production capacities into operation within the year.
Middle East: Turkey has significantly raised barriers to entry for Chinese BEV brands to protect its own companies, while BYD, Geely, and Chery have joined hands with leading conglomerates in the Middle East to enter a number of Gulf countries.
Forecast outlook:
- Development stage: In the short term, the export market will be dominated by trade and KD model, and in the long term, it will realize a fully localized production layout, and the overseas export market size of China's domestic vehicles is expected to reach a plateau of 8 million units.
Regional outlook: exports to Europe are dominated by new energy and will remain the largest regional export market for a long time; exports to Southeast Asia will gradually become the second largest market with both fuel vehicles and new energy; Latin America, CIS countries, the Middle East and other markets will be dominated by the export of fuel vehicles for a long time.
——Related Layout Diagram Recommendation——
Source: 2023 China Passenger Car Market Summary and Outlook Report (2024 Edition)