Today's market is basically in line with the author's expectations yesterday, and it is true that there has been a wave of retaliatory rebound in the market, in fact, yesterday's situation is indeed wrong, especially the sharp fall of the ST plate, and even the small plate has been killed by the market.
The CSI 2000 index has fallen sharply, to be honest, the first two trading days of this index such a decline is indeed abnormal, the probability of being collapsed by the market's sentiment, the CSI 2000 index fell by more than 11% for 2 consecutive days.
Therefore, today's market will come out of the repair market, and the CSI 2000 index has also come out of a wave of sharp rise today, and the intraday increase even exceeded 6%, which is a repair of the previous sharp fall.
Therefore, the author believes that today's rise is not a reversal of the market, but a repair.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.14% to close at 3,071 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.11% to close at 1,797 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.48% to close at 9,381 points.
It can be said that the three major A-share indices are doing well today, and the end of the market is even more popular.
In fact, the current situation in the stock market is still a relatively complex situation, but it will take a while to wait for the change estimate, which is mainly reflected in two aspects, and it is still two more important aspects.
First of all, although the ChiNext index has risen well today, it is still only running along the quarterly line, and has not broken away from the shackles of the quarterly line, and the index has been running horizontally for 5 consecutive trading days.
Why can't the ChiNext index fall?
On the one hand, there is a continuation of the quarterly line, so the GEM index has been running around the quarterly line recently, and on the other hand, the multi-level divergence of the GEM has been formed, which refers to the daily trend, the hourly trend, and the shorter trend.
In fact, the market trend of the stock market mainly lies in one point, that is, the process of the line from dense to divergent, and then from divergence to intensive, and this process is actually sideways, upward divergence is the trend upward, and downward divergence is the downward trend.
When the deviation rate between lines and lines, as well as between lines and indices is too large, it is the time when the market ushers in a turning point.
At present, the 5 lines of the GEM have begun to gradually get closer, and even several of them have begun to continue to bond intensively.
This means that the sideways market of the GEM is estimated to be nearing the end.
On the contrary, the author is more inclined to a point, the ChiNext index is more likely to choose to change the disk upward, why? or that sentence, there is support below the GEM, and at the same time, if the GEM continues to fall, then it is bound to form a divergence.
Therefore, the possibility of choosing a change upwards is higher.
However, it is also important to remember that a key high point is also at 1929 points, to put it bluntly, the GEM is just from another small sideways space into a larger sideways space, which is the key.
So, can we break through the 1929 point? The author believes that unless we can increase the volume, moreover, it is still a large amount, otherwise, even if we break through this point, then there will be a very obvious and serious divergence.
Therefore, there is a high probability that it will run in the space of 1760 to 1929 points.
Moreover, the Shenzhen Component Index also began to stop falling and rebound near the quarterly line, which also means that this line has brought a lot of acceptance to the Shenzhen Component Index, so that it will not fall further, so this is also the current resonance effect.
Secondly, if you look closely, the downward momentum of the Shanghai Composite Index is almost close to the state of shrinkage, and its sideways trend is more obvious.
At the same time, the lower semi-annual line is basically in such a state, so the Shanghai Composite Index will always run between the semi-annual line and the annual line, and as the lower quarterly line moves further upward, it means that the sideways bottom of the Shanghai Composite Index is more solid.
Although its various lines are concentrated, it has not yet reached a dense state, and the short-term lines are intensive, but the medium and long-term lines are not dense enough, so it will take some time for the Shanghai Composite Index to change, and it will still run sideways.
This is also the reason why the author believes that the index is unlikely to change in the short term.
Therefore, today, although the stock market has indeed risen sharply, to put it bluntly, it is just to repair the market of the previous two trading days, and there is still no signal to get rid of the sideways shock, which is still more critical.