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Text: Han Shasha
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introduction
When it comes to the Japanese economy, I believe many people have something to say that it was once the head of the four Asian tigers and the first developed country in Asia, but although Japan is still a developed country, it can no longer find its original dazzling light.
At the end of the day, the Japanese have made the wrong "choice" in several economic changes, such as mobile phones in the 21st century and new energy trains, which are now popular. However, these are not the biggest heels that Japan has planted in the economy, in fact, a big gamble in the Japanese market in the 90s of the last century still affects countless people, so what happened in Japan back then?
(Japan after World War II)
1. Japan's "economic myth" has hidden dangers
After the end of World War II, according to the Yalta Agreement and other documents, the United States, with the blessing of the agreement, officially entered Japan out of strategic needs, and launched a series of economic development and support policies for Japan.
In less than 10 years from 1946 to 1952 alone, the Americans sent billions of dollars in aid to the Japanese in various forms, and Japan's economic environment also quickly recovered, becoming the first country to recover its economy among the defeated countries in World War II.
In the 70s of the last century, Japan's heavy industrialization process has been perfected, so it is accompanied by the urbanization of 75.7% of the population, in other words, the urbanization process is basically over, and the city and city-centered industry began to be saturated.
(The Yalta Triumvirate)
Urbanization brings people a complete set of facilities, whether it is life or entertainment, the life of the Japanese is much richer, and the clothing, food, housing and transportation can even be compared to the international metropolis of New York, of course, if you want to maintain this kind of life, the economy must continue to develop, and people must continue to make money.
Since they couldn't get into the factory, the wealthy Japanese wanted to find another way to make a fortune, and soon the capital found a vacancy in the urban market, or the vacancy finally came to the peak of development, and this sector was real estate.
In fact, on the road to urbanization and industrialization, many people moved to live in cities, so the residents' demand for housing was basically completed before 1975.
(Old photos of the signing of the Plaza Agreement)
After that, there was no demand for housing? To be fair, there was really very little, more of a demand for investment. Of course, not only did the people have needs, but this period also caught up with the changes in national policies, and the two sides basically reached a consensus on the issue of developing real estate.
Speaking of this, many people may not understand, but in fact, the United States has made great contributions behind the adjustment of Japan's economic policy, Japan's economic development has been rapid to the point that the United States has stepped sideways, and the sharp appreciation of the yen has caused a large number of Japanese to pour into the United States to invest, and the United States has suffered losses in trade and finance, in order to change this situation, the "Plaza Accord" signed by the two sides in the 80s began to play a role.
Japan encourages people to go out to spend money, banks encourage major enterprises to lend, especially the real estate industry is everywhere, and it is necessary to increase the loan rate for real estate companies.
(Japan in the 80s)
The policy is so good, so the real estate development company began to build real estate like chicken blood, and high-rise buildings rose from the ground, and who did they sell to? Of course, it was ordinary people. Even if the Japanese people borrow money from bank loans, they still want to buy a house and invest in it, just to make a lot of money while the time is good.
On the one hand, "crazy construction", on the other side, "crazy buying", the highly prosperous real estate market economy has made everyone relax their vigilance, but they don't know the hidden dangers behind the "overcapacity", which is about to bring a earth-shaking change to their lives, can the Japanese accept this change?
Second, Japan's real estate bubble has been punctured
According to a set of statistics in 1991, Bank of Japan credit institutions lent 45.4 trillion yen to the real estate industry, an increase of 28.7 trillion yen from before 1985. It can be seen that before the myth of Japanese real estate was shattered, how profitable Japan was in real estate investment was that everyone flocked to it.
(Japanese streets in the 80s of the last century)
In the short period of more than a decade before that, Japan's economic development and even national income even surpassed that of the United States, and some people even estimated that if the land in Tokyo were packaged and sold, the price could even buy four entire American land.
In the face of this situation, it is difficult for the Japanese people not to "float", they have been overwhelmed by the Americans for a long time, and now they are finally raising their eyebrows, so during the same period, the Japanese people began to pour into the American market in large numbers, and spent a lot of money on real estate and real estate.
Taking the Mitsubishi Group as an example, it directly spent a huge amount of money to buy the Rockefeller Building in the center of New York, and for a time the scenery was the same, and its level of wealth was even lower than that of the Jews of the same period.
(Image source: Internet)
The Japanese thought that this advantage could be maintained, and even thought that such high housing prices would never fall, and people continued to invest all their wealth in land and stocks, and the luxury, prosperity and intoxicating taste of money made every Japanese addicted until the real estate bubble quietly came......
In the nineties of the last century, a major event occurred in the world - the collapse of the Soviet Union, and with the withdrawal of America's biggest rival from the stage of history, Japan's strategic position became less important.
Of course, compared to being ignored by the Americans to a certain extent, Japan's real estate economy has also suffered serious problems. The public found that the policy of loans that had previously required simple approval had begun to be tightened, accompanied by the collapse of the stock market, and the Japanese economy collapsed in an instant.
(JPY)
The real estate economy, as the hottest industry at the time, was the first to bear the brunt of the severe impact. At first, it was thought that the central bank was simply tightening the money supply sharply in conjunction with local policies, and the main purpose was to reduce the inflated housing prices in major cities.
However, housing prices suddenly became as uncontrollable as the stock market back then, and the specific performance was that they did not fall when they should have fallen, and they did not stop when they should have stopped.
The real estate business invested in is all smashed in the hands, and it still continues to fall in a rapid way, and it is good to invest with the savings in your hands, but the big deal is that there is no penny. But you must know that in the past, in order to make money, there were many people who took out loans to invest, but now housing prices have fallen, personal credit crisis has appeared, and people who have taken out loans to buy houses have gone bankrupt on the spot and even become in debt.
(The online picture has nothing to do with the content)
Countless companies and individuals have become poor overnight, and all the bottoms lost in this round of investment have been lost. The bankruptcy of small and medium-sized enterprises is accompanied by countless unemployment, and no one is crazy under this gap. Therefore, some people have mental problems, some people become extreme and perverted, and some people can't accept this kind of blow and choose a hundred times.
The crisis and the bubble brought about by the real estate market caused the collapse of more than 180 banks, and the direct economic loss was as high as 208 trillion yen, and what is even more terrifying is that the Japanese economy has been regressing for 10 years, and the economic development of the 10 years from 1980 to 1990 seems to have disappeared out of thin air.
Until now, Japan's most typical real estate bubble and economic crisis-related events at the end of the 20th century are still classic cases studied by many scholars and experts. But these are only inconsequential factors, and the clues to the real collapse of the real estate economy have long been hidden in the background of the times.
(Japan's town has nothing to do with the content)
3. The enlightenment brought by the Japanese real estate crash
In fact, the emergence of Japan's real estate bubble is not completely traceless, as early as when the price of real estate increased significantly, it should arouse everyone's vigilance, investment and industry are different, any investment products have no way to make a profit or lose money, even if everyone loves gold, the situation is stable and the country is not the best time to make a profit.
The collapse of Japan's economy, marked by real estate, is the result of a combination of actions. Whether inside or outside, no snowflake is innocent during an avalanche.
One of the reasons for the housing bubble is the government's insensitivity to the timing of economic regulation.
When the real estate bubble is on the rise, that is, housing prices continue to rise, and people are too keen on real estate investment, exceeding the social carrying capacity and the needs of the people, monetary policy should be used to adjust from both the supply and demand sides.
(Web image)
When reducing investment, it is necessary to strictly review and guide by interest rate regulation and review, so as to avoid the emergence of large-scale follow-the-trend investment behavior, and do not let the real estate market crowd out too much funds.
Second, always be aware of abnormal currency appreciation or depreciation. During the housing bubble in Japan, we can see that the exchange rate of the yen has increased dramatically, and it is not at all "worthless" as it is today. As a result, a large amount of foreign capital has entered the market to invest, and when a crisis occurs, external capital will be withdrawn, and the Japanese market has become a passing god of wealth, making nothing and losing a lot.
Third, investment in the real estate market should not be too fanatical. You may find that when the real estate economy is in a downturn, the second-hand housing market is very hot.
(Web image)
This is due to the sharp drop in housing prices, which has led to the sale of properties that were once invested. Some of them are still repaying the loan or taking out a loan to support the loan, in order to reduce the loss can only sell the investment property, the original investment is more, now the loss is more.
A lot of people are complaining, knowing that they weren't so hot-headed at the beginning. But the market economy is not a hot mind of an individual, but a "fever" of a group of people under the development trend, blinded by huge profits, thinking that they can make easy money by simply buying and selling.
When everyone thinks so, the real estate bubble appears, why is the state now strictly restricting the second house of individuals? It is regulating the real estate market, using high second sets of taxes to curb the willingness of speculators and speculators to buy, the state is so sincere, many people still rush into the real estate market like moths to the fire, can only say that try not to be blinded by appearances.
(Web image)
Fourth, "Don't put all your eggs in one basket". This experience has been blistered by the experts, but there are still people who feel that they will always be the smartest one, always staring at the profiteering industry with a pair of eyes, and investing all their wealth like a gambler.
Ordinary people's investment should be diversified and follow the trend of the market, look at investment issues correctly, don't think about opportunism, and make some money that you think is an empty glove white wolf and a million profits. As for how to find this investment opportunity, we can pay more attention to national policies, and when the bank interest rate is raised, we should know that at least for now, we should make less large investments, and the state encourages you to save money.
Fifth, the general environment is down-to-earth, with industry as the main development direction. Or take the Japanese real estate bubble as an example, when the Japanese madmen invested in real estate, couldn't the state see it? In fact, they saw it, and they supported it to a certain extent, otherwise why were they so relaxed on the issue of real estate credit?
(People on the streets of Japan)
The illusion brought about by the inflated economy, which is thought to be conducive to development, is actually nothing more than a carbuncle that will inevitably occur in the future, especially when the housing is obviously saturated, and there is still investment in the industry, thus ignoring the development of other industries, so that the industrial industry is squeezed out of the share of loans that it should get.
Just like the heavenly crippled feet in martial arts novels, one leg is extremely powerful, and the corresponding other leg has become a weakness and a lifeline, so only the whole body is coordinated, all pillar industries develop together, and lay a good foundation, so that there can be a firm reliance on subsequent risks.
There is no doubt that industry that is conducive to people's livelihood and national development is the key, and it is a pity that Japan really did not know gold and jade, and wasted decades in vain.
(Web image)
epilogue
When a disaster occurs, some people think that it is the intervention of external forces, some people think that it is the short-sightedness of the people, Japan's bubble economy era happens to bring us a more comprehensive enlightenment, the fundamental, a country wants to move forward steadily and continuously, there can be thousands of roads, but there is only one direction - iron still needs to be hard.
Resources:
Lu Xiaoguang.Japan:Shattered Land Myth[J].New Sankei, 2014(11):2.
Liang Shuang.The rise and bursting of real estate bubble in Japan and its countermeasures[J].Urban and Rural Construction, 2015(8):2.
Wu Jing,Cai Yuexiao.Reflections on Japan's real estate bubble[J].Shang, 2013(12):2.
Wang Wei[1],Shao Ting[2].Wang Wei,Shao Ting:Attaching great importance to the lessons of the bursting of Japan's real estate bubble[J].China Industrial Economic Dynamics, 2017(7):4.
Song Tao,You Fangyuan.A review of research on real estate bubble in Japan[J].Academic Exploration, 2013(9):4.)