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Large ships can cause big problems. In 2021, the large container ship Ever Given ran aground in the Suez Canal, blocking an important trade route between Europe and Asia. The vessel, which was stuck in the dead end, gained global attention. At that time, people were tired of the pandemic, and all sorts of crazy theories were put forward about the ship. The incident also had real-world implications: the canal had an average daily trade volume of $10 billion in goods.
Another heavy cargo ship, the Dali, crashed into the piles of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, causing the 1.6-mile (1 mile or 1.6 km) bridge to collapse almost immediately and sink into the water. The collapse of the bridge affected trade at the Port of Baltimore. In 2023, the port's foreign cargo throughput was worth $81 billion.
Container ships are getting bigger
The two incidents were separated by nearly three years, the accident sites were about 5,000 miles apart, and they occurred under different circumstances. But they all involve the same kind of giant ships that have become the backbone of modern global trade. The Ever Given is a very large vessel with a length of more than 1,300 feet (1 foot or about 0.3 meters) and a gross tonnage of 220,000. The Dali freighter is slightly smaller than the Ever Given, with a length of about 980 feet and a gross tonnage of less than 100,000.
These large ships are very different from the world's first successful container ships. In 1956, a converted steamer departed from New Jersey and arrived in Texas. In the decades that followed, container ships slowly grew larger, but in the last 20 years they suddenly and significantly increased, forcing ports and canals to adjust. The logic of new shipping technologies and economies of scale means that ships are getting bigger and bigger.
Opened in 1977 at a cost of $316 million, the Francis Scott Key Bridge is a massive infrastructure project – even it can't withstand the impact of a modern container ship. Benjamin Schaefer, a professor of civil systems engineering at Johns Hopkins University, said that in fact, no pier could withstand a hit by a ship as large as the Dali, "which is huge."
Vulnerable to geopolitical influences
Modern shipping needs to worry about more than just accidents. About 90 per cent of international trade is transported by sea. These giant container ships have traversed many geopolitical hotspots. In these hotspots, participants realized that intercepting one or two ships could have a global impact that far exceeded their initial cost. The current size of the ship means that a successful rocket or drone attack could render a ship carrying hundreds of thousands of tons unable.
Last year, Yemen's Houthi rebels began attacking container ships and oil tankers in the Baba el-Mandeb Strait after Hamas's October 7 attack on Israel, which led to a massive attack on Palestinian enclaves in the Gaza Strip. These attacks effectively cut off access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, causing numerous freight logistics companies to change their shipping routes and detour through the southern tip of Africa, extending each way by an average of 10 days.
As a result, global shipping costs have risen. Supply chain experts estimate that if this chaos continues for a year, global consumer prices could rise by 2%.
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is just one potential blockage point for global shipping. On the other side of the Arabian Peninsula is the Strait of Hormuz. There, tensions between Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and commercial ships often intensified. There is also the Black Sea, where Russia has been able to block large shipments of Ukrainian grain since it sent troops to Ukraine in February 2022.
Like the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal is increasingly seen as a concern for global trade. While the latter allows countries in the Americas to quickly take a shortcut, it is dependent on precipitation and has been constrained by drought conditions for months.
Multi-country operations are not uncommon
In many ways, giant container ships are perhaps a symbol of our time. The Dali was in a U.S. port, but the ship was built by South Korea's Hyundai and piloted by a group of Indian sailors, owned by a Singaporean company, to deliver containers on behalf of a Danish shipping giant that was en route to Sri Lanka at the time.
It is not uncommon for a single ship to be operated by multiple countries. Last month, the Houthis attacked a ship carrying tens of thousands of tons of fertilizer from Saudi Arabia to Bulgaria. At the time, the group claimed that the ship was British and therefore belonged to the Israeli allies. The cargo ship, named "Rubimar", later sank. But the only link between the UK and the Rubimar freighter is that a maritime database lists an apartment in Southampton, England, as its owner's address.
These opaque transnational regimes are the result of the rapid development of globalization. Globalization has led to rapid economic growth in recent decades. But the system doesn't always look good. Rachel Premark of the American company Freight Wave wrote in 2022 that in addition to risks such as hitting bridges, jamming canals and being attacked by militants, these giant ships represent an oligopoly that lacks competition.
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